WI: Nuclear Iran Post-OIF

According to the Wikipedia article 'Nuclear program of Iran':

"In 2007, the United States National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) stated that Iran halted an alleged active nuclear weapons program in fall 2003. In November 2011, the IAEA reported credible evidence that Iran had been conducting experiments aimed at designing a nuclear bomb until 2003, and that research may have continued on a smaller scale after that time."

What if, after the US invasion of Iraq, Iran decided they needed a nuclear deterrent to avoid a US invasion of Iran? Some things I'm curious about:

  • When could they get a nuclear weapon?
  • What would the means of delivery be?
  • Would the Saudis start up a program of their own?
  • What are the chances of an Israeli or US strike on the Iranian weapons/research facilities?
 
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