WI Norwegian Independence in 1814

So when Norway was ceded to Sweden IOTL they refused, and Sweden invaded. Sweden won relatively quickly and the personal union that would last until 1905 was enforced. But what if they hadn't won? I know the balance of forces wasn't exactly in favor of Norway, but what if Swedish forces were badly reduced during the Napoleonic Wars, maybe held up in a prolonged conflict with Russia over Finland, while Norway somehow was left with more experienced officers and a better army in general. This could all be done by changing the details of the Napoleonic Wars, but the underlying causes are not really the point.

How would an independent Kingdom of Norway affect 19th Century Europe? A small country with little in terms of military and economic power, not to mention population. But how would an additional Scandinavian kingdom affect the power struggle of the European Powers? Which "bloc" would Norway gravitate towards, and how would its relation to Sweden and Denmark be? Norwegian overseas possessions were taken by Denmark in OTL as Norway was ceded, is there any chance of this not happening?
 

Valdemar II

Banned
Well it king would be the heir to the Danish throne, so it would only last a few decades. But still when they reunited it would be as a two independent state sharing monarch rather than as a province of Denmark.
 
Bernadotte was keen not to have his troops committed too much in Germany during 1813-14 campaign as he would spare it for Norway. He was much critized for this action.
Have the other monarch's pressure him to commit the troops fully.

Norway did have a rather good army suited for its task and gave a good account of itself though it was overwhelmed and couldn't rely on allies.

Aside from that Christian Frederik was heir to the Danish throne due to the Danish Succession Act (Kongeloven) but I don't think he would have left Norway should they successfully resist Sweden.
And the Norwegians would probably not like to rejoin Denmark at least not as the Kings personal backyard but only as an equal partner which the Danes of the time probably wouldn't like.
So in comes Frederik Ferdinand brother of Christian Frederik as King of Denmark; and a different Danish history.

Should Norway keep its independence it would of course reclaim the North Atlantic possessions from Denmark accusing it of robbery! Don't think the Danish claim would survive close scrutiny at least not if Britain is on Norways side! And Denmark did side with Nappy though. :(

Norway would of course rely on close connections to Britain and its export of iron and timbers there. That would as OTL be the natural "side" Norway would lean to.

Norway would be able to have an ally in Denmark against Swedish manoevres but then Denmark had its own problems regarding the German Duchies.

Sweden would of course grumble this and be most interested come the ATL Crimean War or sorts to regain Finland (I guess)
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
I'm pretty sure the Congress of Vienna would find some way to screw Norway. They kind of liked to screw minor nations.

But what does this mean for Denmark? If the king of Norway is the heir of Denmark, would the Danes get Holstein back, or would the Congress decide them having a chance getting Norway back is enough?
 
I'm pretty sure the Congress of Vienna would find some way to screw Norway. They kind of liked to screw minor nations.

But what does this mean for Denmark? If the king of Norway is the heir of Denmark, would the Danes get Holstein back, or would the Congress decide them having a chance getting Norway back is enough?

Remember, the goal of the Congress of Vienna was to create a situation where none of the European powers would be able to reshape the map by itself, and to restore as much of the old order as possible. I would thus think that giving Norway back to Denmark could be the likeliest outcome here.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Remember, the goal of the Congress of Vienna was to create a situation where none of the European powers would be able to reshape the map by itself, and to restore as much of the old order as possible. I would thus think that giving Norway back to Denmark could be the likeliest outcome here.
But they'd probably still try to find a way to compensate Sweden for the loss of Finland though. But I can't really think of something plausible.

I don't think the Danes will get to keep Holstein if they get Norway back.
 
I don't think the Danes will get to keep Holstein if they get Norway back.

Denmark was given Swedish Pommern in exchange of Norway which was exchanged for Lauenburg and some cash with Prussia.

ITTl Denmark won't get Swedish Pommern as the Swedes is barred from Norway.

If the Swedes aren't able to conquer Norway then neither will Denmark be as the Navy is gone 1807.
 
Remember, the goal of the Congress of Vienna was to create a situation where none of the European powers would be able to reshape the map by itself, and to restore as much of the old order as possible. I would thus think that giving Norway back to Denmark could be the likeliest outcome here.

I think the Norwegains would be very much against this solution except as an equal partner which the Danes wouldn't like.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Denmark was given Swedish Pommern in exchange of Norway which was exchanged for Lauenburg and some cash with Prussia.

ITTl Denmark won't get Swedish Pommern as the Swedes is barred from Norway.

If the Swedes aren't able to conquer Norway then neither will Denmark be as the Navy is gone 1807.
But Denmark had been on the wrong side in the war, and the Danes feared OTL they'd lose Holstein as punishment.
 
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