The flapping of butterfly wings around the world...
ADDITIONS AND CORRECTIONS TO EARLIER SEGMENTS OF THE TIMELINE
1846-1847--The Liberian Crisis. Since 1821, the American Colonization Society, an organization based in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, has maintained a colony on the coast of West Africa called Liberia, where freed slaves from the United States have been re-settled, in small numbers, since that time. With the secession of the Northern States and the formation of the Federated States of America, de facto ownership of the colony has passed to the newly created Federated States of America. Like the United States, the government of the F.S.A. has, until now, preferred to leave the task of administering Liberia to the Society. However, the Society has not been doing a great job at this, and in 1846 a new problem crops up which threatens to bring British intervention in the colony.
The Liberian commonwealth receives most of its revenue from custom duties, primarily levied on indigenous traders and British merchants. The British government has, up until now, turned a blind eye to this and ignored the complaints of it’s merchants, who have long been angered by this taxation. But in early 1846, the British government advises the Liberian authorities that it does not recognize the right of the American Colonization Society, a private organization, to levy taxes on it‘s citizens. Britain's refusal to recognize the authority of the American Colonization Society has convinced many colonists that independence with full taxing authority is necessary for the survival of the colony and its immigrant population. In October 1846, therefore, the Americo-Liberian colonists vote in favor of independence.
In the meantime, pressures within the Federated States have been building which are forcing the government of the F.S.A. to take a more concerned stance toward its “bastard stepchild” in Africa. One of the unexpected consequences of the breakup of the Union has been a significant increase in the number of runaway slaves seeking asylum in the States of the F.S.A. With this influx of black people into the F.S.A., however, there has been increasing political pressure among the white majority to send them somewhere else…anywhere else, as long as it’s outside the F.S.A. The American Colonization Society’s venture in Liberia, therefore, now looks increasingly attractive as a place where all these escaped slaves can be sent, and thus removed from the F.S.A.
Therefore, when the Liberian colony declares it’s independence, the government of the F.S.A. refuses to recognize it. A military expedition is fitted out which sets sail in early 1847. When it arrives at Monrovia in March, it meets with some resistance from the colonists, but this is crushed within three months, with many casualties on both sides. A white governor and a strong garrison are stationed in Liberia, and a more efficient administration is put in place for the colony. A steady stream of new colonists…mostly escaped slaves from the United States…begins arriving soon thereafter, and the population begins to grow. With the support of the Federated States government, the colony begins to move beyond it’s shaky early beginnings and to establish itself as a more stable and economically prosperous place.
1847 onwards, Liberia: The colony of the Federated States in Africa, called Liberia, continues to expand as a steady stream of new colonists are transported there. With military support from the Federated States, the colonists begin driving deeper into the African interior, as well as eastward along the coast into what, in OTL, would become the French colony of the Ivory Coast. In 1861, a second colony…called Freedonia…will be founded along the coast of what, in OTL, would become the French colony of Guinea. This, too, will expand into the interior during the coming years, and by 1881, the territory of the two colonies will have met in the interior region behind the British enclave at Sierra Leone.
The territorial expansion of Liberia, and especially the foundation of Freedonia, strains relations between the Federated States and the governments of Britain (which has a colony at Sierra Leone which it sees as increasingly threatened as it is gradually surrounded by F.S.A.-controlled territory) and France (which had, beginning in the early 1840s, staked claims to the Guinea Region and what would later become known as the Ivory Coast, although these areas would not be formally colonized by the French in OTL until the 1880s and 1890s). However, these tensions do not erupt into open conflict between the three powers.
In 1883, the two African colonies are officially joined, by Act of Congress, into one, called American West Africa.
1848--Cuban revolutionary Narcisco Lopez flees to the United States, where he tries to create interest in a filibustering expedition to Cuba for the purpose of overthrowing Spanish rule there. He is, unlike in OTL, allowed to freely operate and recruit in the U.S. without molestation by the United States government, which is upset with Spain for allowing the Mexican “Government in Exile” to take up residence in Havana.
1849--Narcisco Lopez, at the head of an army of 1,000 mercenaries (his second in command is a former U.S. Army officer, Major Robert E. Lee, and one of his junior officers is a newspaper editor from New Orleans named William Walker), lands in Cuba, where they take the town of Cardenas. However, the local support Lopez had counted on fails to materialize, and the local populace instead supports the Spanish. The Lopez expedition is forced to retreat to Key West.
June 1849-March 1853--The Administration of U.S. President Thomas Hart Benton. Benton will gradually steer the Democratic Party, and the nation, onto a course which it will continue to pursue for decades. Benton, a strong believer in currency backed by specie (of which the F.S.A. ended up with the majority of the United States’ old reserves in the ATL) will successfully champion the reopening of the old colonial Mexican gold and silver mining operations, which had been, essentially, shut down by the Mexican War of Independence and never reopened due to continued poor government and turmoil in Mexico. Benton will also successfully champion the expansion of mining operations into new regions of Mexico, tapping the rich veins of the northern Sierra Madres (which were virtually untapped at this time in OTL…that will not be the case in the ATL). He also sends out expeditions to do geological, mapping and resource surveys of the Western Territories, which greatly increases awareness of the economic potential to be found there. These surveys will lead to the location of additional silver and gold veins at several locations in Sonora, Chihuahua, and New Mexico Territories in the upcoming years, as well as the discovery of ancient canal systems which had once been used to irrigate large regions of the Southwest, indicating the region‘s potential as a farming area.
President Benton also will champion, with less success, the development of a transcontinental railroad and a transcontinental telegraph line, and programs designed to promote settlement and development of the West. Opposition to these programs is primarily due to a disagreement over the source of funding for it. The mainstream Democratic Party is controlled by the slave-owning plantation class, which opposes the use of federal subsidies to promote such internal improvements (primarily because the tariff is the major source of federal revenues at this time, and the planters object to being taxed to promote improvements projects which do not directly benefit them, believing that such projects would be better financed at the State level so as to prevent inequities in the distribution of funding).
However, Benton’s efforts to promote economic development of the West are not all in vain, and under his administration, the first Western Development Act is passed by the U.S. Congress, giving away public land in the West to anyone willing to develop it. As a result, a steady influx of Anglo settlers soon begins to make it’s way into the Territories, especially the northern former Mexican territories, where current landowners are few. In the more populated southern territories, Anglo settlement is somewhat hindered by the fact that most land is owned by Mexicans of European descent, who are defined as white and thus eligible for U.S. citizenship. However, there are also large holdings held by Mestizo families, whose political powerlessness will allow unscrupulous means to be used, in many cases, to deprive them of their titles to the land, making it available to white Anglo settlers. And so, Anglo settlement of southern Mexico will proceed as well, albeit at a slower rate.
Benton’s Administration will be remembered for another thing as well, this one not so good for the United States…the Spanish-American War of 1850-1851. This will be detailed in another entry in this timeline.
1850-1851--The Spanish-American War. After his ignominious retreat from Cuba the previous year, Narcisco Lopez recruits another army for the invasion of Cuba. This time he is given more support by the United States government, including a naval escort for his expedition’s ships. Lopez lands near Santiago, Cuba, in March 1850, with 12,500 men. Recognizing his own limitations as a military leader, he gives command of the military part of the expedition to Robert E. Lee. As was the case with the previous expedition, little support is forthcoming from the local population, who see the expedition as a thinly veiled attempt by the United States to seize control of Cuba for it’s own purposes. Nevertheless, under Lee’s command, the filibusters defeat a superior Spanish force and take Santiago in May 1850. This emboldens U.S. President Thomas Hart Benton to increase the level of U.S. support for the expedition. Several more regiments of U.S. “volunteers” soon after land at Santiago, leading Spain to break relations with the United States in June 1850. In July 1850, Spanish naval vessels open fire on a U.S. Navy vessel which is escorting a filibuster convoy into Santiago, and when news of the incident reaches the U.S., there is a public clamor for war. President Benton, knowing the United States is in no condition to pursue a foreign war while also trying to digest it’s recent conquests in Mexico, resists the war hawks as much as he can, but Congress nevertheless votes to declare war in August 1850.
Unfortunately for the United States, it’s aggressive actions have raised the ire of several other nations, including the Federated States of America and Britain. These two powers, although they never formally declare war, jointly impose what is essentially a naval blockade on the United States, stopping and searching unescorted U.S. merchant ships entering or leaving U.S. ports and even seizing those which are found to contain “contraband” headed for Cuba. They also offer loans and unlimited access to arms supplies to the Spanish, who gratefully accept this generosity.
The United States, which has it’s hands full in holding down Mexico, is not able to devote it’s full strength to the war in Cuba. Nor does it dare to take direct action against the warships of the F.S.A. and Britain which are conducting the de facto blockade of it’s ports, as it needs, at any cost, to keep those powers out of the war. Instead, the U.S. counters the de facto blockade by sending merchant ships out in convoys, escorted by warships, which the F.S.A. and British do not molest, as neither power wants to enter the war directly. While this does effectively break the “blockade,“ it also ties up most of the U.S. Navy and prevents it from being actively involved in the war itself. As a result, the Spanish are able to establish naval superiority in Cuban waters in relatively short order, and land a very large army which defeats the rebel and U.S. forces and captures Santiago in July 1851. The remnants of the U.S. and rebel forces are forced to surrender in August 1851.
Humiliated, the Benton Administration sues for peace in September 1851, and a treaty, mediated by Emperor Napoleon III of France, is signed at Paris in December 1851. In exchange for peace and the repatriation of the prisoners of war held by the Spanish, the United States is forced to pay a large indemnity to Spain, and to recognize Spanish sovereignty over Cuba. In the aftermath of the war, Spain formally recognizes the Mexican “Government in Exile” which has been residing in Havana since 1848, as does Britain. Needless to say, the United States is infuriated by that, but can do nothing.
The war does produce a few heroes for the U.S.A. who will go on to figure prominently in later years. Jefferson Davis once again serves with distinction, a fact that, along with his Mexican War service, will propel him to the White House in 1852. Robert E. Lee, by virtue of the command skills demonstrated during the war, is promoted to Brigadier General in the U.S. Army upon his return after the war. He will later (from 1863 onward) serve as Commanding General of the United States Army until his death in October 1870, ending his career with the rank of Lieutenant General (the first man in American history since George Washington to hold that rank). And William Walker, whose personal bravery and leadership skills figured prominently in newspaper coverage of the war in the United States and elsewhere, will also go onto an interesting later career as well. More on that later…
1852--The GOLD HUNTER, a merchant ship flying the flag of the Federated States of America, lands at Tehauntapec, Mexico, carrying Chinese coolie labor. The First Officer of the vessel, Frederick Townsend Ward, disembarks, spends a few nights drinking and whoring in the town, then returns to his ship when it leaves port, headed for Shanghai. He is killed in a bar fight in Shanghai, later that same year. (In OTL, Ward met and joined William Walker’s filibustering expedition to Sonora during this time. In the ATL, William Walker is in New Orleans at this time, and has not lead a filibustering expedition to Mexico, so the two men never meet. This will have important consequences later).
1853--In 1853, the Nicaraguan Liberal Party candidate Francisco Castellón from León and the Conservative Party candidate Fruto Chamorro of Granada both run for the position of Supreme Director of Nicaragua. Chamorro wins, and there are claims of election fraud. Chamorro immediately transfers the government headquarters from Managua to Granada, the Conservative stronghold.
January 1854--Fruto Chamorro of Nicaragua convenes a Constitutional Assembly to promulgate a new Constitution during the absence of the majority of the Liberal Party representatives. The Constitution of 1854, as the new document will be called, will be considered to be badly flawed by the Liberals.
June 1854-September 1855--The Nicaraguan Civil War. In reaction to what they see as a rigged election and Chamorro's subsequent actions including the promulgation of the Constitution of 1854, prominent Nicaraguan Liberals… including Francisco Castellón, Máximo Jerez, and José María Valle…establish a separate government in León. Castellón is proclaimed president on 11 June 1854. Although the Liberal forces are initially militarily successful against Chamorro, a long unsuccessful siege of Granada is followed by the loss of Managua, Masaya and Rivas to the Conservatives. Looking for any way to save their failing cause, the Liberals make contact with William Walker, who has returned to his former position as editor of the NEW ORLEANS CRESCENT, but is chafing at the dullness of civilian life after the thrill of his filibustering adventures in Cuba. The rebels ask Walker to raise a band of mercenaries and bring them to Nicaragua to help the Liberals win the Civil War, and Walker jumps at the chance. The United States government…which is interested in “twisting the tail of the British Lion,“ in retaliation for that nation’s actions during the Spanish American War, by interfering with British interests in Nicaragua….does not molest Walker as he recruits men and raises material for the expedition, and in May 1855, Walker sets sail from New Orleans with 500 well-equipped men and 2 pieces of artillery. In September 1855, Walker’s force defeats the Nicaraguan national army at the Battle of La Virgen, and Liberal Patricio Rivas is installed as President of Nicaragua. However, Walker…who controls the only effective military force in the country…is the real power in Nicaragua. And he knows it.
January 1856--The United States government officially recognizes the new regime in Nicaragua, and concludes a mutual defense treaty with it.
June 1856--After a farcical election, William Walker installs himself as President of Nicaragua. Walker, however, because of his Cuban experience, recognizes the need to win popular support for his regime. He becomes “more Nicaraguan than the Nicaraguans,” marrying into a prominent local family. He also allows the adoption of a new liberal constitution, lowers taxes on the common land-owner, and places prominent Nicaraguans into high places in his administration. One major difference from OTL is that he does not recast his campaign as a fight to extend slavery (as slavery is no longer under direct threat in the United States, and since the Mexican conquest has provided plentiful new horizons for slavery, there is not a lot of support there for acquiring new lands for the expansion of slavery anymore. Therefore, Walker does not find this a useful way to get recruits, money, and arms from the United States), and he does not rescind the Nicaraguan Emancipation Edict of 1824, which increases his popularity within Nicaragua itself. He also begins creating nationalistic feeling in Nicaragua as the basis for a plan for the conquest of the rest of Central America.
March 1860-July 1864--The Wars of Central American Unification. President Walker of Nicaragua has been very successful in creating loyalty to his regime, as well as nationalistic fervor, among the Nicaraguan people, and he is ready for step two in his grand plan…the conquest of the rest of Central America. In March 1860, he declares war on El Salvador and Costa Rica. His large, loyal, and professionally trained army easily defeats the ragtag forces of the El Salvadoran and Costa Rican armies in less than a year. His next target is Guatamala, which falls in 1862. Honduras falls in 1864. In July 1864, Walker calls a convention at Managua to form the United States of Central America, and a new constitution is drawn up which gives voting rights to the peoples of all the former Central American nations (now the “States” of the new U.S.C.A.).
August 1860 onward: The Partition of China--Taiping rebels in China take the city of Shanghai in an attack on August 17, 1860 (in OTL, a defense force made up of a mixture of Chinese, European, and American mercenaries, organized and commanded by Frederick Townsend Ward…who died in 1852 in the ATL…repulsed the rebels. As a result of Ward not being available in the ATL, this force…which became the nucleus of the “Ever Victorious Army“ which played such a large part in the final defeat of the Taiping Rebellion, is never formed). The city is sacked and hundreds of thousands…including a very large number of British, French, Russian and American citizens (from both the F.S.A. and the U.S.A.)…are slaughtered.
At the time, Britain and France are at war with the Qing Dynasty of China (the Second Opium War). With this outrage…which is blamed on the Qings, who are held to have not done enough to defend the city and to have “allowed“ it to be captured in the express hope that the Taipings would massacre the foreigners there…the Federated States of America and Russia both make alliances with Britain and France and enter the war (the U.S.A., which is fully embroiled in Mexico by this date, contributes some naval support, but does not directly enter the land war). The four powers decide that, in order to “restore order” to China, two things have to happen…the Qings have to be removed, and the Taiping rebels have to be suppressed. It will take a decade, but both of these objectives will be achieved. The campaigns of this war will be fought with great brutality by all sides and with little regard for the conventions of civilized war, and by the end of fighting in early 1870, well over 30,000,000 Chinese, along with over half a million foreign troops, will have died. The cost of the conflict will be so high that, when it is all over, the Western Powers decide that only the partition of China will compensate them for their huge expenditures of specie and blood during the conflict.
At a convention held in Geneva in August 1870, China is carved up like a Thanksgiving Turkey into “spheres of influence” for the Five Powers (as the victorious allies are called…the U.S.A., despite having contributed only limited naval support, is counted among the victorious powers and given a chair at the negotiating table. It ends up with a Sphere of Influence of its own, albeit the smallest one allotted to any of the Five Powers). In practice, China is too large for the victorious powers to govern directly, so the country is dismembered into a series of sixteen small statelets, whose native leaders are appointed by the Five Powers and can be removed by them, at their will. These puppet leaders basically serve as tax collectors and enforcers of the will of the Five Powers, taking their own cut of the profit from the rape of the Chinese economy which the system generates. It is the beginning of a long and very sad period for China.
July 1864 onward--In the United States of Central America, the administration of William Walker works on improving the economic conditions and stability of the new nation. Walker, in order to get badly needed foreign capital, grants a charter for a combined U.S., F.S., British and French consortium to build a canal through Nicaragua, for the purpose of linking the Caribbean Sea with the Pacific Ocean. Work on the canal begins in 1866, and will take nearly three decades to complete. When it is complete, the United States of Central America demands, and receives, the right to levy small tolls on all shipping traffic passing through the canal in exchange for the pledge that the traffic of all nations will be allowed to use the canal without interference. This proves a boon to the economy of the nation. With revenues gained from the canal, as well as the loans and grants given to the nation by the canal consortium, Walker (who will die, still in office, in 1890) and his successors will build much-needed infrastructure and industry in the Central American republic, which will enable it to compete for trade in world markets. By the end of the century, the U.S.C.A. will be a moderately strong regional power with a strong economy, a moderately sized but well trained and equipped army, and a small, but well-equipped and very professional, navy which operates primarily in the Caribbean.
December 1866--Since in the ATL, French Emperor Napoleon III’s Mexican adventure has never taken place, Archduke Ferdinand Maximilian Josef von Habsburg, younger brother of Emperor Franz Josef of Austria, has never been offered the throne of Mexico. Instead, after being removed as Viceroy of Lombardy and Venetia in 1859, Maximilian went into quiet seclusion at his personal estate, Miramar Castle, near Trieste, and took a trip to Brazil to study the flora of the Amazonian rain forests.
Maximilian returned from Brazil with his botanical specimens in early 1861, and remained in retirement thereafter at Miramar. To counter his boredom, he asked for, and was given, permission to re-enter the navy, being given command of the important naval base at Trieste. He served with Admiral Tegetthoff at the Battle of Lissa during the Italian sideshow to the 1866 Seven Weeks War with Prussia, distinguishing himself by his bravery under fire.
However, the Italian portion of that war was the only bright spot in what otherwise was a disaster for Austria. In the aftermath that conflict, therefore, the Habsburg monarchy in the Austrian Empire has been thrown into crisis. The reign of Emperor Franz Josef has been a long series of setbacks and disasters for the Empire, and various ethnic nationalities within the Empire…most notably the Hungarians…are pressing for greater political power within the Empire, or, if that cannot be had, independence from it. In the midst of this crisis, the powerful mother of Emperor Franz Josef, Empress Sophie, persuades (“brow-beats” might be a better word for it) Franz Josef, in the interests of the dynasty, to step down and abdicate his throne. After much resistance, Franz Josef complies, abdicating not only for himself but for his eight year old son, Crown Prince Rudolph, in favor of Archduke Maximilian, who is crowned as Emperor of Austria on Christmas Day, 1866.
December 1866-April 1901--The reign of Emperor Maximilian of Austria. The new Emperor Maximilian is still forced to conclude a compromise with the Hungarians, but he also includes other powerful ethnic nationalities, such as the Czechs, Slovaks, Poles, Croats, and Romanians, in the agreement, in essence replacing the empire with a federal state. The Hungarians protest over the inclusion of the other ethnic nationalities in the agreement, thus elevating these groups to a level of political equality with the Magyars…especially the Croats and the Romanians, who they have traditionally ruled and view as subordinate to Hungary. The Hungarians threaten to secede from the empire, but Maximilian is able to rally the remaining peoples of the empire behind him, and it becomes clear to the hotheaded Magyars that they will not win a war of secession against the remainder of the empire. So, in the end, the Magyars grudgingly accept the agreement forged by Maximilian in May 1867.
Maximilian also institutes a new liberal constitution, which guarantees the rights of the various ethnic minorities in the empire, and establishes a constitutional monarchy with limited powers for the sovereign as the form of government for the empire. A key provision of the document is that the constitution cannot be suspended or amended except by agreement between the Emperor and both houses of the Diet. Each of the important ethnic minorities is granted representation in the bi-cameral Diet, which has a lower house wherein the various groups are represented according to population, and an upper house where each of the various groups is represented equally. As a result of this and other political and social reforms instituted during his reign, popular support for the Hapsburg dynasty is greatly increased, and the empire makes a strong recovery from the woes it suffered during the reign of Franz Josef.
Last but not least, Maximilian also institutes various reforms in the Austrian military which greatly increase it’s combat potential. This will have important consequences in a few years.
1870-1872--The War of the Three Powers. In 1868, the Spanish succession crisis breaks out on schedule, resulting in war between Prussia and France in July 1870. However, unlike in OTL, France will not fight alone in this conflict. Austrian Emperor Maximilian is something of a Francophile, and very concerned about the threat the power of Prussia poses to Austria. Shortly after taking the throne, he began cultivating improved relations with Emperor Napoleon III of France, and the two Emperors signed a secret treaty of alliance against Prussia in late 1868. When the war breaks out, therefore, Emperor Maximilian honors his treaty with Napoleon and declares war on Prussia. He is also able to persuade the south German states to refuse Prussian demands that they join the war on France, and instead, these declare war on Prussia as well. As in OTL, Italy, hoping to make territorial gains at Austria’s expense, declares war on Austria.
The Prussian war machine is very formidable, and despite the array of power lined up against it, still manages to more than hold it’s own in the struggle. However, the support of Austria, Bavaria, and the other south German states is enough to enable Napoleon III’s forces to escape total defeat at Prussian hands, and the war drags on well into 1872. Finally, the weight of the powers aligned against it begins to tell, and the Prussians are thrown back out of France and the allies invade Prussia itself. King Wilhelm of Prussia dismisses his Chancellor and architect of the war, Otto von Bismarck, and sues for peace in September 1872. The British government offers to mediate, and the Treaty of London, ending the war, is signed in January 1873. By terms of the Treaty, Prussia is allowed to formally annex the remaining states of the North German Confederation. The south German States form their own confederation, headed by Austria, known as the Sud-Deutsche Bund. Prussia is forced to pay heavy indemnities to France and Austria. France is allowed to annex Luxembourg, but takes no territory from Prussia itself. Italy gets to keep Rome…which it seized during the war…but Austria retains control of Venetia.
1877--Death of Emperor Napoleon III of France (in OTL he died in 1873, largely as a result of ill health and a broken heart caused by his defeat in the Franco Prussian War. A Napoleon III rejuvenated by victory in the war with Prussia lives a few years longer). He is succeeded by his son, who reigns as Emperor Napoleon IV. Napoleon IV will continue the liberalizing trends began by his father in the latter years of his reign, and will prove to be a popular and successful ruler.
1880--Emperor Maximilian of Austria, who has remained childless (apparently either he or the Empress Charlotte was infertile…given that Charlotte is reputed to have, in OTL after Maximilian’s death, had an affair which produced a son, it was probably Maximilian), and is under increasing pressure to name an heir. He has become very fond of his nephew, the former Crown Prince Rudolf (son of Franz Josef), and has been grooming him as his heir. Rudolf has been an ardent supporter of Maximilian’s liberalization of the Empire, and Maximilian sees him as someone who will carry on his legacy after his death. Therefore in December 1880, he formally anoints the 22-year old Rudolf as the new Crown Prince and heir apparent of the Austrian Empire.
July 1880, Paris, France: Emperor Napoleon IV is married to Princess Beatrice, youngest daughter of Queen Victoria of Great Britain. The union of these two royal houses will also cement an alliance between France and Britain which will have great impacts on future history.
