WI: Northern and Southern Dynasties After Three Feudatories Revolt

[Dorozhand]

Here is the first official court portrait commissioned by the Zhāowǔ Emperor of Southern Zhōu in early 1680, after his rebel state had taken Hángzhōu, renamed it Sháodū and stabilized the borders of the new empire; two years before the Rénxū Peace solidified the independence of South Huáxià. Wú Sānguì chose to wear traditional Míng-era robes, while customarily wearing a large and colorful Miǎnguān crown. Two distinctive aspects of the Nán Zhōu imperial vestments were added by Emperor Tàizǔ; firstly the addition of a purple tassel to the crown, colored with an aniline dye synthesized by Lǚ Lěi, one of the Great Chemists of Fahtsàan and presented to the emperor as thanks for his patronage. It signified along with its red counterpart the duality of sunset and sunrise respectively, and the imperial rule over all that is between. Secondly, the tying of the two tassels into a knot in which is set the Tàiyángbǎo, a yellow sapphire gifted by tribute emissaries from the Kingdom of Jaffna which, when cut by the imperial jewelers, shone like the sun itself in the light. The stone would be famously lost during the Mậu Dần War, when the Xiǎnzhuō emperor, leading Zhōu-Mạc forces in tense manoeuvres at the Battle of Sông Mã, was captured and shot by guerrillas of the nationalist Vạn Xuân Society.

There's a scenario I've been thinking about for a while. Not just this small vision in particular, but the larger question. Could Wú Sānguì have been victorious over the Qīng? And if so, could this have resulted in a prolonged period of separation between a Qīng-ruled north and a Hàn-ruled south? Or would a victorious Wú be something that the Qīng could not survive? Even if Wú's state is stalled and contained in the south by the Qīng, would pro-southern rebellions have inevitably toppled the Manchu regime within a few years, or could they have stabilized their situation?

 

[kholieken]

Population-wise area controlled by Three Feudatories (Yunnan, Fujian and Liangguang) is underpopulated compared to North China Plain. Chinese history show that South China has to capture Yangtze at minimum to compete with North.

 

[Dorozhand]

Population-wise area controlled by Three Feudatories (Yunnan, Fujian and Liangguang) is underpopulated compared to North China Plain. Chinese history show that South China has to capture Yangtze at minimum to compete with North.

Could Wú and his associates have accomplished this? I think so, as the forces the three feudatories had at their disposal were the same battle-hardened troops that had conquered South China to begin with on behalf of the Qīng. Conquering it back is a task that requires a successful campaign, but I think it is one which could have happened given the right circumstances. The Qīng getting their act together and eventually containing the southern rebellion is also something I think is possible, but I do not know whether the Qīng could have survived long if the Hàn ruled their own state in the south. I do know that there was significant support for the Qīng in the north and that the Manchu were able to quickly raise willing administrators and soldiers, however.

If Wú had conquered South China including control of the Cháng Jiāng, could the Green Standard Army and the Manchu banners have managed to contain him? And could this have resulted in a prolonged Northern and Southern dynasties period?

 

[Dorozhand]

Population-wise area controlled by Three Feudatories (Yunnan, Fujian and Liangguang) is underpopulated compared to North China Plain. Chinese history show that South China has to capture Yangtze at minimum to compete with North.

Also, at the height of their success, the Three Feudatories controlled Húnán and IIRC campaigned as far north as Shǎnxī and Húběi . At the same time, Gěng Jīngzhōng was in a position to take Hángzhōu in the beginning; perhaps if he had succeeded more people would have joined a more promising-looking revolt.

And then there's the Battle of Pēnghú. Could Dōngníng naval forces, especially if they had defeated the Qīng navy, have significantly helped the Three Feudatories? Did the kingdom have riverine ships in addition to its oceangoing navy, with which perhaps they could have helped maintain rebel control over the Cháng Jiāng? The rattan shield troops of Dōngníng could also have been a significant reinforcement. I've heard that Zhèng Chénggōng could field as many as 100,000 people in his army when he planned to invade Nánjīng. Could Zhèng Kèshuǎng have done the same 30 years later?

 

[Dorozhand]

The situation stabilizing into an independent South China in opposition to a powerful northern counterpart in the 17th century is something that has drastic ramifications everywhere in the world.

 

[Dorozhand]

I wonder if China would be better or worse off in the long run. On the one hand, the Manchu brought stability and pluralism, a redefinition of China as an inherently multiethnic imperium and a liberation of many minority peoples from discrimination under the previous regime. However, the majority population was often in revolt against them, and their conservatism and inflexibility was partly in response to this. Perhaps an independent South China's evolution could be towards a state that prioritizes economic development including sea commerce, while the division of China between two rival states that would doubtless go to war many times may spur continued advancement in weapons technology and patronage of science which may put China in a better position to resist foreign economic exploitation.

 

[Hegemon]

I wonder if China would be better or worse off in the long run. On the one hand, the Manchu brought stability and pluralism, a redefinition of China as an inherently multiethnic imperium and a liberation of many minority peoples from discrimination under the previous regime. However, the majority population was often in revolt against them, and their conservatism and inflexibility was partly in response to this. Perhaps an independent South China's evolution could be towards a state that prioritizes economic development including sea commerce, while the division of China between two rival states that would doubtless go to war many times may spur continued advancement in weapons technology and patronage of science which may put China in a better position to resist foreign economic exploitation.

Maybe...

It could spur development in China, but it could also weaken both powers to the point where outsiders have greater influence on them...

The possibilities are endless, though.

 

[Superninja76]

Maybe...

It could spur development in China, but it could also weaken both powers to the point where outsiders have greater influence on them...

The possibilities are endless, though.

Could japan have another go at korea, with china split in two and most likely fighting eachother regularily?

 

[Hegemon]

Could japan have another go at korea, with china split in two and most likely fighting eachother regularily?

IIRC the Tokugawa were pretty isolationist, so unless something changes that, probably not.

 

[BellaGerant]

Could japan have another go at korea, with china split in two and most likely fighting eachother regularily?

Nope, the Toyotomi's success in the Imjin War stemmed from two major factors: 1. the Japanese forces were much more battle hardened than the Koreans' and 2. the Japanese took the Koreans, who had historically underestimated and looked down on the Japanese, off guard. Once the defenders consolidated and met with the 40k men the Ming sent, the Japanese were pushed back almost as rapidly as they had advanced.

Post-Sengoku Period Japan's only military conflicts were occasional revolts while Korea's military was built up by King Hyojong in the 1650s (to fight the Qing, which didn't pan out). The element of surprise only works the first time and Japan hadn't developed its navy to overcome its difficulties in the Imjin War (not that they had any need to, after all). The Tokugawa have none of the advantages the Toyotomi had, instead being burdened with more disadvantages for a mainland campaign.

I'd figure Korea might try to get some amount of revenge for the decades of humiliation, since King Hyojong was pretty keen on that. But Japan's not likely to get involved too heavily, aside from mercenaries and selling to one side and/or the other.

 

[Superninja76]

Could Korea itself try to fight the qing in the post-revolt years when their military is likely exhausted, perhaps reclaim some lands like the city before port Arthur (can't recall it's name) and/or weiwaihei?
An expansionist Joseon sounds.. odd, to me, but I'd like to consider everything.

 

[ramones1986]

Given the linguistic diversity of southern China, what could be the concession of a hypothetical dynastic government to retain the loyalty of some, if not most, regions?

PS:
I could suggest Huai River as the boundary between the two Chinese states, but its course had already changed during the period the PoD had occured.