WI: Northern Alliance destroyed pre-9/11?

ThePest179

Banned
As it says in the title, what if the Taliban successfully destroys the Northern Alliance (at least six months) before 9/11 happens? How would the US War in Afghanistan be different without a clear local force to support?
 
The Americans in this case will simply have to launch a full scale invasion themselves. Perhaps 50,000 American troops march on Kabul and purge the Taliban from Afghanistan. It might be more effective than OTL. With so many more troops they might actually destroy the Taliban's ability to resurge and capture more leadership of Al-Qaeda.
 
Also note that even if the Northern Alliance was "destroyed", the actual people that made it up won't just disappear. There will almost certainly be an effort made to organize a local army during the campaign from these survivors, probably with mixed success. There will also likely be exiles, so you could certainly get a Ahmed Chalabi equivalent.

The US would be even more reliant on Pakistan and/or Uzbekistan/Tajikistan if they have to stage an actual full-fledged land invasion.
 
With out the Northern Alliance to serve as a base for Allied forces to land in, the United States will be even more handicapped (intially) when invading Afghanistan. However, they could arrange for passage through one of the neighbors of Afghanistan.
 
There would still be other experienced paramilitary groups with veterans of the war against the Soviets and the civil war for the US to back.

An obvious choice would be Ahmed Shah Massud, if he'd be alive in that case. Although even more than with the Northern Alliance, it would be difficult to portray him as a man for the future, for he had reactionary views (he was part of the Jamaat-i-islami) and was Saudi Arabia's man before they switched to the Taliban.

Then there was Rashid Dostum und his Uzbek troups in the North. Perhaps the US might even have given it a go with Ismail Khan, though that seems unlikely for it would have required cooperation with Iran (he led a Shia Muslim group and fled to Iran after he was defeated by the Taliban).
 
With out the Northern Alliance to serve as a base for Allied forces to land in, the United States will be even more handicapped (intially) when invading Afghanistan. However, they could arrange for passage through one of the neighbors of Afghanistan.
Could that make the Americans give serious consideration to an alliance of convenience, or at least an understanding, with Iran?
 
Could that make the Americans give serious consideration to an alliance of convenience, or at least an understanding, with Iran?
You probably need a different administration. The Bush administration (or at least the neoconservative wing that mostly drove foreign policy during his first term) was strongly opposed to Iran. There were tentative Iranian attempts at rapprochement (based on mutual hatred of the Taliban and Iraq), but they were pretty firmly rebuffed. Besides, the Sunni monarchies (especially Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States) absolutely would not support an alliance with Iran, and that's a concern even if the Iraq War wasn't in the cards. And for that matter, hardliners in Iran would be ambivalent at best about such an understanding.

More likely they buy off one of the neighboring states, and then (once they have secured enough territory the hard way) organize a local allied army. Even if we have to create a rebel movement, it can be done; the US essentially plucked Karzai out of obscurity to become the president; him or someone else could do as a figurehead military leader as well. The quality of the troops created that way would be extremely iffy (look at the various attempts to arm forces in Iraq and Syria to fight IS today), but that's a separate issue.
 
You probably need a different administration. The Bush administration (or at least the neoconservative wing that mostly drove foreign policy during his first term) was strongly opposed to Iran.

Though it pretty much looked as if they were de facto in the same camp as Iran: They toppled two neighboring regimes that were regarded as mortal enemies by the Islamic Republic.
 
Maybe the assassination attempt against Clinton nearly succeeds in the Philippines and administration decides to invade or attack Afghanistan then. They could sponsor the Northern Alliance's fight against the Taliban to the point of pushing them back.
 
Top