WI: North Vietnam loses Vietnam War?

What if the US does not back out after Tet? Instead they successfully explain to the public that they were on the verge of victory. After a few months of hard pushes by the Americans and South Vietnamese the North Vietnamese are forced to surrender. What happens next?
 
The Us offered aide once the fighting was over. Both LBJ and Nixon had promised not to force reunification, so its probably an east Germany/west Germany situation. Stabilized during the 70's.
 
Cannot really see this happening. Tet decimated FNL (Vietcong) militarily but the political infrastructure was still intact. North never sent anything to South it wasn't prepared to lose. Best achievable result is that North stops sending regular NVA units to south and FNL goes back to low level guerilla war while rebuilding its military. So it turns clock back to about 1960, but without Diem and with chronically unstable revolving door governments.

LBJ mighht get another term but 1972 presidential election will propably be Vietnam-election. American combat troops leave 1975 and South Vietnam collapses 1979.
 
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You need a POD before Tet. The incompetence of McNamara and Abrams had hamstrung the US effort in Vietnam. One solution is for LBJ to dump the Kennedy cabinet in 1965 and replace McNamara with a competent Secretary of Defense.
 
You need a POD before Tet. The incompetence of McNamara and Abrams had hamstrung the US effort in Vietnam. One solution is for LBJ to dump the Kennedy cabinet in 1965 and replace McNamara with a competent Secretary of Defense.

I believe you mean Westmoreland, because Creighton Abrams wasn't in charge at the time of Tet and later did a fantastic job while in command.
 
I believe you mean Westmoreland, because Creighton Abrams wasn't in charge at the time of Tet and later did a fantastic job while in command.
I did. My sincere apologies to Abrams who would have made a much more competent commander than Westmoreland. Thanks for your correction.
 
What if the US does not back out after Tet? Instead they successfully explain to the public that they were on the verge of victory. After a few months of hard pushes by the Americans and South Vietnamese the North Vietnamese are forced to surrender. What happens next?

There's a huge difference between preserving South Vietnam and making the North surrender.

The former is doable, especially if Watergate doesn't happen. Just have the American Air Force strafe any tanks going South of the border if the North tries to pull a 1975; armour and infantry are easy to target compared to the guerilla forces in the jungle. Maybe they'll try a few more times, but the principle would be established. South Vietnam will then probably become a democracy somewhere in the late 80s; god knows what would happen to the North, as they could easily swing reactionary like the Koreans in response to the Southern threat.

The latter is extremely hard, and borderline ASB without nuclear intervention. China won't exactly be up for the Americans on their doorstep, and might make a full intervention, not to mention the Soviets. The guerilla forces the United States would have to defeat would have skyrocketed in number, and we all know the problems they faced in South Vietnam alone. It would require hundreds of thousands of casualties, and I don't think the American public would be okay with that.

America's best shot in the war is immediate, Nixonian-style escalation to bring the North to the table, and then rigidly enforce the equivalent of the 1972 deal. Granted, it's still as morally murky as ever, but it's good for America's overall pride and self-esteem as a country.
 

trajen777

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The real issue was the admin. lied to the public on how the war was going. Tet, poorly reported on what happened and the results, still destroyed the credibility of the admin. The Gov had basically explained that "the north was on its last legs. However the press / public asked the realistic question "how could the north launch an offensive of such magnitude if they were on their last legs". That was the beginning of the end. I am at a loss as to how to force a surrender.
1. I can see a truce -- armed and low level conflict
2. leadership in north dies and new leadership decides it is not worth while
3. Invasion of the north ?
 
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