WI: North Korean ballistic missile hits Chinese airliner during a test in 2014?

The Chinese family members that might have been lost on the Mainland Chinese airline that were either shot down by the North Korean missile or had to dive away and probably went into an uncontrollable stall dive that landed them just miles from a Chinese city port that was monitoring a video feed in that region would creat a firestorm of bad PR for the government in Beijiang as the bereaved family members would be seen on video crying their anguish and demanding answers and justice against a deranged N.Korean govt that shot down or cause the airliner to go down ....
 
CCP wins the PR lottery!

Doubt China would go to war over something like this. North Korea would go begging forgiveness, China would say some harsh words and tell them to cool it on the missile program and it'd probably all blow over after a month or so.
That is my bet too. And the PRC ladership will milk this of course for all it is worth.

They will face an outcry at home of course. But then: The CCP just loves it when they can feed their population something to get riled up about a foreign country on the news. Ideally about Japan. Second best if about the US. But really: Any country will do as a scapegoat. I still remember how the news were paced here in China not too many years ago. It was always: First segment had Head of State today did this or that, shakes hands with what's-his-name, cementing how important China's Main Man is in the world. Second Statement: Report on a minor problem issue in China, ending with how local officals deal with it competently and optimistic. End segment: Gloom and doom in foreign country.

Things have changed meanwhile - but that only means that the scenario the OP describes can be the first segment today instead of being the last.

Chinese citizens will then blog and write and get all riled up online. Maybe some even stage a demonstration here or there. All with the blessing of the state - unless it gets too out of hand. Then discreet censorship steps in online. And demonstrations on the street ... they are partly staffed and organized by the state anyhow. Domestic mission accomplished nonetheless: China's public is distracted nicely for a couple of weeks from domestic issues.

At the same time, the CCP leaderhip will capitalize internationally on the issue twofold.

First: Get all the condolences coming in from everywhere, showing how important China is as the president of the US, of Russia, of India, of Germany and all these other unimportant nations express their sorry. Almost like the good old days of the Emperors when all the foreign barbarians came hat in hand to the Forbidden City to grovel before the throne. Japan sending condolences will probably not be mentioned too much. But Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan definitely will be featured big, conjuring some kind of Chinese unity out of thin air.

Second: Acting all super statesman like and magnanimous by not starting a war or crisis over this. Acting all solemn and level headed, the cooler heads and voice of reason during all the international outrage. Then waiting for the praise from the foreign press coming in pointing out how the US went to war in Iraq over two levelled skyscrapers while China remains calm over a shot down airliner ... even though it could easily roll into and over North Korea.

Demands of compensation for the family of the deceased may be a tricky issue. China's blogospehere and internet forums will demand these. But my bet is the CCP will again play the magnanimous card and generously compensate the families directly - all properly reported on Chinese state tv of course. At the same time appearing generous towards North Korea, the pauper who does not have anything to give to begin with, on an international level. And again raking it in domestically at the same time by showing "See: When disaster strikes, the CCP steps in". In the old days (when I still occasionally watched Chinese tv) this would have been segment two of the news. Abjusted to segment one nowadays. See? Progress!

I am with GFW. I give it about a month of media exploitation by the CCP.
 
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Reality.

In the West - Chinese Airline crashes in North Korea, both Chinese and Korean spokesmen say it had nothing to do with the missile test. US and Western Media can't really say too much as it gives away how good their monitoring is.

In DPRK, Chinese Diplomats quietly inform Kim that this is the last test they will make and will abandon their missile program. And that this is not a request.

DPRK then make an offer to the US/South Korea that they will scrap their peaceful long range missile program as a gesture of good will if they will provide aid in a similar act of good will.

The US and South Korea do so.
 
That is my bet too. And the PRC ladership will milk this of course for all it is worth.

They will face an outcry at home of course. But then: The CCP just loves it when they can feed their population something to get riled up about a foreign country on the news. Ideally about Japan. Second best if about the US. But really: Any country will do as a scapegoat.

I still remember how the news were paced here in China not too many years ago. It was always: First segment had Head of State today did this or that, shakes hands with what's-his-name, cementing how important China's Main Man is in the world. Second Statement: Report on a porblem issue in China, ending with how local officals deal with it competently and optimistic. End segment: Gloom and doom in foreign country.

Things have changed meanwhile - but that only means that the scenario the OP describes can be the first segment today instead of being the last.

Chinese citizens will then blog and write and get all riled up online. Maybe some even stage a demonstration here or there. All with the blessing of the state - unless it gets too out of hand. Then discreet censorship steps in online and demonstrations on the street ... they are partly staffed and organized by the state anyhow. Domestic mission accomplished anyhow: China's public is distracted nicely for a couple of weeks from domestic issues.

At the same time, the CCP leaderhip will capitalize internationally on the issue twofold.

First: Get all the condolences coming in from everywhere, showing how important China is as the president of the US, of Russia, of India, of Germany and all these other unimportant nations express their sorry. Almost like the good old days of the Emperors when all the foreign barbarians came hat in hand to the Forbidden City to grovel before the throne. Japan sending condolences will probably not be mentioned too much. But Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan definitely will be featured big, conjuring some kind of Chinese unity out of thin air.

Scond: Acting all super statesman like and magnanimous by not starting a war or crisis over this. Acting all solemn and level headed, the cooler heads and voice of reason during all the international outrage. Then waiting for the praise from the foreign press coming in pointing out how the US went to war in Iraq over two levelled skyscrapers while China remains calm over a shot down airliner ... even though it could easily roll over North Korea.

Demands of compensation for the family of the deceased may be a tricky issue. China's blogospehere and internet forums will demand these. But my bet is the CCP will again play the magnanimous card and generously compensate the families directly - properly reported on Chinese state tv. At the same time appearing generous towards North Korea, the pauper who does not have anything to give to begin with, on an international level AND domestically at the same time by showing "See: When disaster strikes, the CCP steps in". In the old days (when I still occasionally watched Chinese tv) this would have been segment two of the news. Abjusted to segment one nowadays. See? Progress!

I am with GFW. I give it about a month of media exploitaton by the CCP.

Does the Chinese government still have that kind of insecurity about their place in the world and need for approval from Europe and the West in this age? It sounds almost like you are describing a national inferiority complex. I would think most people in China and the Chinese government know exactly how important and influential their country is on the world stage, and that sort of fishing for international approval and attention as if they are a small, inconsequential, impoverished third world country seems a bit far fetched. Unless I am really missing something about the Chinese national psychology, which, as a Westerner I fully admit I may be.
 
Does the Chinese government still have that kind of insecurity about their place in the world and need for approval from Europe and the West in this age? It sounds almost like you are describing a national inferiority complex. I would think most people in China and the Chinese government know exactly how important and influential their country is on the world stage, and that sort of fishing for international approval and attention as if they are a small, inconsequential, impoverished third world country seems a bit far fetched. Unless I am really missing something about the Chinese national psychology, which, as a Westerner I fully admit I may be.

His assessment is probably about right. They'll monitor the blogs, watch their people act upset, accept condolesnces, tell the Norks to reign in their programme and life goes on.
 
Does the Chinese government still have that kind of insecurity about their place in the world and need for approval from Europe and the West in this age?

The Chinese government I don't know. But the average people: Yes, that's my impression. The government nurtures and taps into that feeling at the same time.

However: The only thing the government is really scared about is the Chinese populance. And that is where the whole PR exploitation I describe about stems from.

The Chinese government is insecure about their place in China. "The World" figures in only a distant, distant second into all of this.
 
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A bit of a sideshow would be that, if China is anything like the ROK, there would be tons of rumours circulating around the internet that it was actually the US or maybe the ROK military that shot down the Chinese plane.

I'm assuming the Chinese censors wouldn't like these memes any more than they would like the anti-Nork ones.
 
A bit of a sideshow would be that, if China is anything like the ROK, there would be tons of rumours circulating around the internet that it was actually the US or maybe the ROK military that shot down the Chinese plane.
Damn! I knew I forgot about something. :mad:
 
Reality.

In the West - Chinese Airline crashes in North Korea, both Chinese and Korean spokesmen say it had nothing to do with the missile test. US and Western Media can't really say too much as it gives away how good their monitoring is.

In DPRK, Chinese Diplomats quietly inform Kim that this is the last test they will make and will abandon their missile program. And that this is not a request.

DPRK then make an offer to the US/South Korea that they will scrap their peaceful long range missile program as a gesture of good will if they will provide aid in a similar act of good will.

The US and South Korea do so.

It was the South Korean defense ministry that reported the incident (the plane missing the missile's trajectory) in OTL. I think China is well aware of South Korea (and Japan for that matter)'s radar capabilities.
 
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