WI:Nonmuslim unified Arabia

Which religion is most likely to unify Arabia

  • Judaism(Himyar)

    Votes: 2 9.5%
  • Nestorian

    Votes: 10 47.6%
  • Ebionite

    Votes: 3 14.3%
  • Other

    Votes: 6 28.6%

  • Total voters
    21
Imagine that the Arabs be unified, however under a religion other than islam. Which would be most likely, and what will the Arab conquests look like?
 
I think they could unify under a political leader rather than only a religion but in this scenario some variation of Nestorian seems most likely to me as there was an extensive Nestorian church all along the coast right up until the 6th century. The Arab expansion probably halts at some point and they begin to assimilate into their new respective lands.
 
I kind of fell that, under the circumstances, their best bet would have been to create a new religion from scratch. Existing religions tended to have their own baggage, were often tied to existing rival empires and would have been seen as foreign. Embracing a form of Christianity has the problem that no matter what brand they choose it's going to cause sectarian problems down the line. Zoroastrianism was too tied to the Persian state and was somewhat in retreat at this point. Ebionites where going to piss off everyone. Judaism would regards all of the Christians as absolutely heretical and had lost its proselytising edge at this point.

When Islam, as an institution and social system, came into existence it was essentially a perfect mixture of everything that the Arabs needed to carry out its conquests. It has an extreme missionary mission to justify expansion. It has no ties to a foreign power and contains plenty of Arabic cultural values to give it a strong support base amongst the Arabic peoples. It contains a strong message of social justice that gives it an appeal amongst the poor and powerless. It also contains a message of social obedience that appeals to the rich and powerful. It has a system for integrating and tolerating other religions which is vital for anyone trying to conquer the Middle East at this time and got them a lot of support in regions that had a long history of religious violence and persecution, such as in Egypt.

It was near perfectly suited to the circumstances of the day.

Some form of conquest may still happen due to a population boom in Arabia and the neighbouring powers kicking the stuffing out of each other but they would probably lack the same drive, dynamism and unity that the Islamic conquests had IOTL. More akin to the German invasions of the Western Roman Empire than a tidal wave that swept from Spain to India.
 
Islam provided the ideological framework and conditions for the survival, centralization and expansion of Muhammad’s polity in a setting where other tribal confederations had been unable to consolidate beyond a certain point.

My best bet would be that some leader of one of the Hanif tribes takes up the Abrahamic mantle of prophethood and unites the Arab tribes through diplomacy and warfare. End result is much like OTL Islam.
 
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