WI: No Yugoslavia 1941 coup

What if the coup d'etat in 1941 failed. Let's say one of the leaders died in some sort of an accident and the coup wasn't done properly or if someone betrayed them leading to the arrest of the plotters. What would the consequences be?
1. Would Yugoslavia stay in the Tripartite Pact? The Germans would probably manage to find a way in the deal to move their army through to Greece and then later, since many of the neighbours wanted Yugoslav territory, they could at least strong-arm them to give up most of Dalmatia and some islands to Italy in exchange for a part of Greek Macedonia, of course if the Royal Yugoslav Army contributes to the campaign.
2. Would they help Germany in any other operations? At least they could get some volunteers like the OTL SS Prinz Eugen Division. Anything else?
3. Would there be much resistance in Yugoslavia? In 1939 Banovina Croatia was created and was supposed to give them some autonomy although it lasted shortly and there's not much to it. There was a lot of ethnic tension and the communists under Tito are sure to start a resistance as soon Barbarossa begins. Probably there would be no chetnik movement and Yugoslavia would have to open up some concentration camps and deport Jews and Roma to Poland or somewhere. Maybe the communists would have more support than OTL as the ustaša movement would be butterflied away if Yugoslavia has to survive. But surely a stronger Yugoslav army with the help of some German divisions and the Luftwaffe could defeat them...they survived barely OTL anyway. If Tito and the rest of the leaders are taken out or if they get surrounded like on Neretva or Sutjeska and their main army is destroyed the partisan movement would be severely weakened.
4. With no invasion of Yugoslavia Barbarossa could start earlier. Not much, maybe a week, but how much would that have effect on the Eastern Front. The Germans are still going to lose, but also, if the partisans in Yugoslavia are "mostly" dealt with by the end of 1942, that could free up some German and Italian troops that could fight in Ukraine against the Red Army or on Sicily in Operation Husky. It would be small changes but how much. Could the Soviet counterinvasion be slowed down, at least by a couple weeks, allowing the Wallies more success in Central Europe?
5. If Yugoslavia like this survives until 1944 when Germany is badly losing on all fronts, what would happen next? By now king Peter would rule without a regency, but definitely he couldn't stay on the throne, not without massive help from the west. The Americans themselves said they wouldn't help Yugoslavia in any peace talks if they join Germany. Could it become a democracy? Could the Soviets take Yugoslavia under their control? Maybe a coup? What are the possibilites?
 
1. It would - up to the point when (if) Germany starts badly losing, when it would switch sides. Maybe together with some other countries.

A Third Vienna Award aimed against Yugoslavia is unlikely, if not impossible. There would be disputes within the Axis, and once Barbarossa kicks off Germany will simply be too busy to deal with that sort of thing.

2. The terms of the Pact were that the Royal Yugoslav army will not take part in the Greek campaign, and that Yugoslavia isn't obliged to participate in any other campaigns, either.
Now, just because promises were made doesn't mean they will all be kept. When things start going south for Hitler, he will pressure Yugoslavia to contribute at least something to the Axis war effort. They will probably allow the creation of a volunteer unit from the ethnic German community, to be sent to one of the fronts - a "Prinz Eugen", in other words, maybe even with the same name. The Royal Yugoslav government may see the creation of such a unit as a way to both appease Hitler and get extremely unwanted pro-Nazi elements out of the country.

3. There will be a lot of protests at first, but eventually things will calm down to quiet bitterness. Since the country isn't occupied, the Communist Party has neither the support nor the power to launch a real rebellion, and will have to satisfy itself with acts of sabotage and a slow increase in popularity.

The fate of the Jews is hard to predict - the majority will live, but it would be too optimistic to expect a total survival rate. The Yugoslav government probably won't have the courage or leverage to completely resist Hitler's demands, sooner or later it will probably chicken out and deport a fraction of the Jewish minority to the Nazis.

4. I think the impact of freed up Axis troops (those who were fighting rebels in occupied Yugoslavia in OTL) would be greater than the impact of Barbarossa's timing, which will be only a bit earlier if it changes at all. OTOH, can we be sure those extra troops would all be thrown against the Soviets? A few will stay at home, and the others may not necessarily all be sent to the east.

5. King Peter won't be ruling; the Regency will stay in power one way or another, under the excuse of special circumstances. (Which would be more or less reasonable - when you're a small country trying to navigate your way through a world war and not get crushed by the giants, you really don't want government changes and political upheavals. And you really really don't want to hand power to an 18 year old.)

At this point, it would be time to switch sides. The Regency would symbolically transfer power to King Peter (only symbolically); Yugoslavia joins the Allies, and tries to get Western troops in as soon as possible, to protect from Soviet takeover and Nazi revenge plans. I believe they'd have a solid chance of making it work, and keeping Yugoslavia a Western-aligned monarchy. But a failure and Soviet takeover is also possible.
 
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Did the Bulgarians fight in the invasions of Greece and Yugoslavia? They got land anyways. Maybe the Yugoslavs can get themselves Thessalonika? A bit questionable of course, given how the Germans may want to keep it for themselves, as woudl the Italians and whatever agreed state is left. Makes me actually wonder if the Germans did manage to get the Macedonians to declare themselves independent from Yugoslavia but not join Bulgaria... But yes, I expect the Yugoslavs would try to just keep themselves out of the war, which the Germans and aitalians wouldn't mind so much, so long as they act as a larder for them, shipping them crops, lumber, raw materials, etc. They can always them use implied threats about letting the Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, the Albanian puppet, the Greek puppet, and themselves split them.
 
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