WI no WW1

[Tyr]

One of the old cliches of alternate history is "WI Franz Ferdinand isn't assasinated".
The obvious answer which every internet smart guy knows is "That was just the cassus beli, some other incident would spark off the war before too long".

Watching a documentary series recently about the pre-ww1 world though has got me rather fondly thinking "if only....".
So.
How can we actually stop WW1? The later the POD and the minimum it changes outside of itself the better of course.
I suppose we could have a massive string of luck where it is just a case of no assasination followed by ever more luck in avoiding the war with Europe forever teetering on the brink. But that hardly seems likely.

How would the world evolve without the war?
So many different factors to consider. Women's rights would be slowed down a fair bit. The class system could well remain far stronger.
Plus of course the various political things that have been done to death.

 

[Dave Howery]

no Franco-Prussian war? Wasn't part of the reason behind WW1 the lingering hostilities from France's drubbing in that earlier war?

 

[Anaxagoras]

The Germans had concluded that by 1916 the Russian Empire would be too strong for the Germans to defeat. This probably influenced their decision to go to war in 1914. So, if the outbreak of the war is delayed by even a short time, overall German foreign policy might shift towards a position of needing to avoid war rather than gunning for it.

 

[Emperor Constantine]

Well there was several attempts in the month between Franz Ferdinands assassination and the start of WWI to deal with the crisis diplomatically. There are several PODS that could be used. For example, Serbia accepts the Austro-Hungarian Ultimatum in its entirely, Austria-Hungary accepts Serbia's response to the ultimatum, Britain is able to successfully call a Congress of London, similar to the Congress of Berlin, and a peaceful solution is negotiated (probably involving Russia being convinced to sacrifice Serbia). Those are just the ones of the top of my head.

 

[Arafeel]

One of the old cliches of alternate history is "WI Franz Ferdinand isn't assasinated".
The obvious answer which every internet smart guy knows is "That was just the cassus beli, some other incident would spark off the war before too long".

Watching a documentary series recently about the pre-ww1 world though has got me rather fondly thinking "if only....".
So.
How can we actually stop WW1? The later the POD and the minimum it changes outside of itself the better of course.
I suppose we could have a massive string of luck where it is just a case of no assasination followed by ever more luck in avoiding the war with Europe forever teetering on the brink. But that hardly seems likely.

How would the world evolve without the war?
So many different factors to consider. Women's rights would be slowed down a fair bit. The class system could well remain far stronger.
Plus of course the various political things that have been done to death.

Well one of the biggest is the impact of all those extra million of Europeans. Social-mockery was on the rise in Germany, and different reform movements were active in other nations as well. No war means no split in the left between pro and anti war factions, and no massive spread of nationalism and national untie ideas. If anything it would be speed up guess. The excess population might also mean more migration from Europe.

 

[Tyr]

no Franco-Prussian war? Wasn't part of the reason behind WW1 the lingering hostilities from France's drubbing in that earlier war?

That would certainly help a lot. Trouble is that changes a lot of other things too, that war changed a lot.
Wonder if we could have France put in a better showing and keep Germany's gains tolerable for France whilst still having the formation of Germany, the economic crisis, the scramble for Africa, etc...

 

[MrHaakwood]

no Franco-Prussian war? Wasn't part of the reason behind WW1 the lingering hostilities from France's drubbing in that earlier war?

The war was certainly not good for nice neighborhood. But for the direct Outbreak of WW1 its role is marginal.

 

[Anaxagoras]

Being a great lover of the Belle Epoque, I have always liked "No-WW1" scenarios. I may write a TL on it one of these days.

 

[Yossarian]

I think we have a tendency to think some sort of WWI conflict is more inevitable than it really was. Just have Franz Ferdinand's car take a different route, he's never killed, and no one ever knows they came close to a war. There may be other crises, but there were plenty of periods of increased tensions before 1914 that never amounted to anything. The world just keeps on muddling along. There's the occasional colonial clash, but no need for a big great powers war.

 

[teg]

I think we have a tendency to think some sort of WWI conflict is more inevitable than it really was. Just have Franz Ferdinand's car take a different route, he's never killed, and no one ever knows they came close to a war. There may be other crises, but there were plenty of periods of increased tensions before 1914 that never amounted to anything. The world just keeps on muddling along. There's the occasional colonial clash, but no need for a big great powers war.

Perhaps. Certainly the war was doomed to start around 1914, indeed if it had been delayed by much longer [in practice the war would have had to have started a few weeks later than in OTL for a 1914 conflict to be possible] it probably wouldn't have occurred until there was a significant shake-up of the continental alliance system [e.g., Russia becomes a greater threat to Britain than Germany, leading to an Anglo-German-Austrian alliance which destabilizes the continent.

teg

 

[Super Cicero]

The war was certainly not good for nice neighborhood. But for the direct Outbreak of WW1 its role is marginal.

Yes, this is the conclusion I came to when writing a 5000 word essay about this exact topic.

Anyway, we must remember the fact that the Germans knew in the early 1910s that the more time passed, the stronger Russia would get relative to Germany. Better a war sooner when they thought Germany could defeat the Franco-Russian alliance (which they were correct about - if there was no UK intervention, they would have won) rather than later.

 

[Black]

The war was certainly not good for nice neighborhood. But for the direct Outbreak of WW1 its role is marginal.

Without The Franco-Prussian war German unification is delayed a few years. Germany curbstomps Austria as otl albeit a bit later in time.

France and Germany could actually become allies without the war. Let's face it they border each other but are far from natural enemies. France isn't even in a natural zone of expansion for Germany and France could never realistically annex the Rhineland.

If Germany and France are allied Germany won't side with Austria. This leaves Austria ostracized from everyone around her. They would either accept a diminished status as a regional power or get stomped by Germany and Russia her natural rivals. Not to say the Germany and Russia would be friends.

Britain would be apprehensive of Franco-German relations but not enough to tie down in an alliance system.

Let's have Tsar Nicolas II drive his country into the ground in 1880s-1900. Civil war breaks out millions killed. Russia is reduced to a weak power for at least 20 years like otl soviet union.

Boom great war avoided until at least 1930. Not sure where to go from here. Any ideas anybody?

 

[Super Cicero]

Without The Franco-Prussian war German unification is delayed a few years. Germany curbstomps Austria as otl albeit a bit later in time.

What? The Austro-Prussian War was in 1866 - before the Franco-Prussian War. Or are you talking about something else?

 

[Black]

What? The Austro-Prussian War was in 1866 - before the Franco-Prussian War. Or are you talking about something else?

That is my mistake. I knew it was before the Franco-Prussian war but I thought they were in immediate succession for some reason. Sorry about that.

Does the rest seem plausible enough though?


Oh and I meant Alexander not Nicolas.

 

[JacktheCat]

Being a great lover of the Belle Epoque, I have always liked "No-WW1" scenarios. I may write a TL on it one of these days.

It was only a Belle Epoque for the (very) thin crust of the rich and the aristos. Most everyone else was living a real life Dickinson novel of squalor and underground anarcho literature.

Europe before WWI was like a social pressure cooker left on too long with the lid about to blow off.

IHMO if WWI had not happened, we would have most likely have seen 1848 all over again, but bigger and badder with chemical weapons used for crowd control.

 

[Black]

It was only a Belle Epoque for the (very) thin crust of the rich and the aristos. Most everyone else was living a real life Dickinson novel of squalor and underground anarcho literature.

Europe before WWI was like a social pressure cooker left on too long with the lid about to blow off.

IHMO if WWI had not happened, we would have most likely have seen 1848 all over again, but bigger and badder with chemical weapons used for crowd control.

Hadn't thought of that but I suppose it is possible. Especially in Ottoman Empire, Italy, Russia and Austria.

Wouldn't happen in Germany, Britain or France though I don't think.

 

[Anaxagoras]

It was only a Belle Epoque for the (very) thin crust of the rich and the aristos. Most everyone else was living a real life Dickinson novel of squalor and underground anarcho literature.

Maybe, but even the poorest artists got to drink absinthe. Lots and lots of absinthe...

 

[Michel Van]

let's look on The July crisis what let to First World War.
it start with Franz Ferdinand assassinated on 28 june 1914.
first Nedeljko Čabrinović try bombed the car, and take potassium cyanide to prevent his capture.
then Gavrilo Princip shot Franz Ferdinand and get captured alive. he take also potassium cyanide
but the dose was to weak, so Princip and Čabrinović survive.

the interrogations of the two assassins, reveal they were instructed in Belgrade by Serbian Major Voja Tankosić.
So Austro-Hungarian authority accuse the Kingdom of Serbian, on murder of crown prince Franz Ferdinand.
yes the Serbian authority know what gonna happen and
Serbian Prime Minister Pašić had ordered the Serbian ambassador to Vienna, Jovanović, to warn Austria-Hungary of the plot.
But Jovanović carried out his instructions poorly

Austro-Hungarian and German diplomats began making requests for investigation to their Serbian and Russian counterparts.
because the harsh demands and rebuffed, things get worst.
in the end Austro-Hungarian Chief of the General Staff Count Franz Conrad von Hötzendorf advocated mobilization against Serbia.
in same time Russia empire was working toward an alliance of Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, Greece, and Montenegro against Austria-Hungary!
Emperor Franz Joseph need to react fast, so he writhe a letter to German Emperor Wilhelm II for demand help in Crisis.
Wilhelm II gave his support for whatever action Austria-Hungary makes.
during the time, french and russians diplomats make wild accusation about Serbian role in assassination.
then came the Austro-Hungarian ultimatum to Kingdom of Serbia...

had Jovanović had warn the Austro-Hungarian authority or Diplomats had show more tactfulness in aftermath.
or Čabrinović and Princip had taken right dose of cyanide, things would turn different

 

[Derek Jackson]

Clearly Serbia should have been humiliated but not destroyed following the murder of Franz and Sophie.

Had Germany told Austria this and a deal been done with Russia to allow Serbia's humliation a war could have been postponed. Encouraging murder of Monarchs was not in the interests of the Czar.


I wonder whether Ausria Hungary might eventually reform and allow more influence for elected represenatives and more respect for minorities.

 

[BlondieBC]

Assuming no WW1 or later WW1, you get the following changes.

1) Several hundred million more people of European descent outside of Europe. At least this many fewer non-Europeans.

2) We likely still have the empire system. Some areas might break free such as India, but it would clearly be around. Algeria is French. Libya is Italian. British East African Highlands has large white population. etc.

3) Once the atomic bomb is found (earlier than OTL), the European frontiers become permanent. Other choice is an atomic WW1 mid century.

4) It is a myth German had to attack due to Russian power. Germany had fairly low expenditure on its military compared to its rival. Germany will either get a less confrontational foreign policy (most likely) or just a larger army. Germany could easily afford 12 not 8 armies. Or even 16. A-H was rapidly modernizing its forces.

5) The naval race between Germany and the UK had largely died down due to costs.

6) Germany and UK likely split Portuguese colonies. Greater SWA (SWA and Angola) becomes the German pride colony.