Might Russia become like and early modern day Britain? As in a commonwealth with a Monarchical head of state?
WI No WW1 in 1914?
- Thread starter RodgerThat
- Start date
It was more political inertia that made the renewal of the treaty happen but Giolitti and many of the liberals see Italy interest best served if she go back as a free agent not linked to any formal alliance and regarding irrendentism many initially believed that at least Trento can be bought by the Hapsburg, maybe as compensation for expansion in other zone...but it was clear that was a pipe dream.
Honestly the moment relationship with France go back to normal, Italy presence in the Triple become complicated
Also you forgot the French navy was scheduled to have roughly 20 modern(well if you count the first two classes of French Dreadnoughts as modern by then)capital ships by 1920 without WWI breaking out...and then we have the USN which if the changes to the timeline get Wilson not being reelected(which with no WWI raging is likely) will result in Josephus Daniels no longer being Secretary of the Navy which means that its likely that the USN will adopt 16" guns from the New Mexicos onwards which makes things interesting
What concerned the British about the 1912 Law was the increased readiness to 3 active Battle Squadrons. The 60% margin appeased the Germans as much as it appeased the Exchequer. It is in manpower where the RN will feel the strain (after 1920), not funds and not ships.
The Russian BC will probably end up in the Med based at Bizerte as they wanted to have ships in the Aegean by 1919. There is still puff in the South American Naval Race as Brazil has ordered a new 15" armed ship and Argentina will follow suit.
The apple-cart upsetting event will be where the Dutch decide to have their 5 battleships built - odds on Germany. This will double the number of ships in German builders hands between 1915 and 1917 and weigh heavy on the RN's calculations.
Riain
Banned
Not forgotten, although I don't know much about it, more that France was a pretty firm (dare I say it) ally of Britain by 1914 with the Entente from 1904, joint staff talks from 1911 and Anglo-French naval agreement from 1912.
The USN was very unbalanced in 1914, while they were laying down a BB or two most years they only had like 54 destroyers and modern 3 light and 3 heavy cruisers. It took until the 1916 naval act for the USN to get 6 BCs, 10 new light cruisers and 50 destroyers as well as BBs, although this was because in large part because of the War in Europe. I don't think the troubles in Mexico from 1914 would be enough to stimulate the building of a balanced fleet.
The Mediterranean would become quite crowded by 1920, your 20 French BBs with 20 planned A-H and 20 Italian ones, with 4 + of Russian BBs behind the straits and 2 Turkish ones and whatever they and the Greeks may buy until 1920.
Which is why Italy was looking for a mediterranean agreement with France and the UK
During the triple alliance negotiations in 1900 the Italians more or less demanded that A-H build up a larger, more sea worthy navy that then may support the Italian one against the French in case of war. It's safe to say that Italy until about 1950 didn't know itself what it really wanted and was just looking for opportunities here and there and stumbling into avoidable crises.
Coulsdon Eagle
Monthly Donor
In 1902 Italy & France signed a secret agreement which, apart from recognising Italy's interests in Tripoloitania and France's in Morocco, pledged Italian neutrality in the event of a German war of aggression on France.
Now, Rome could just as easily broken that treaty rather than the Triple Alliance, but the existence of the former does indicate Italy was already seeking ways to limit their involvement under the latter.
Now, Rome could just as easily broken that treaty rather than the Triple Alliance, but the existence of the former does indicate Italy was already seeking ways to limit their involvement under the latter.
In 1913-14, Italy and A-H had been working on joint war plans against France. Admirals Haus and di Revel at their 20 Dec 1913 meeting in Zurich discussed in great detail various scenarios for joint action against the French in the western Mediterranean. The technical aspects of the naval agreement including logistical support for the A-H fleet, signalling, formations and evolutions of the combined squadrons were also discussed. Significantly, both Navy commanders agreed to hold joint naval manoeuvres in the Autumn of 1914 in the western Med. The Combined Fleet was to be commanded by an Austrian Admiral and to operate from Sicilian bases.
The basic plan called for loading five Italian Army Corps, their attendant supporting troops, and four cavalry divisions onto transports in northern Italy, particularly Genoa and Spezia. From these ports, the troops would be transported to their landing points, the beaches of St. Tropez and the Gulf of Fos near Marseilles. Another force would move to seize the old harbor of Marseilles. Once taken, St. Tropez and Marseilles would serve as ports where follow-on forces and supplies could be unloaded. Once ashore, the troops could attack Toulon, the main French naval base in the Mediterranean, from the landward side, knocking out the surviving remnants of the French Navy. During their movement, the convoys would be protected by a naval defense in depth. First, the major French bases in the area, Toulon in Provence and Ajacco and Calvi on Corsica, would be under blockade. The Italian Navy would also provide distant escorts to the north and south of the convoy route, as well as close escorts for the ships. During the attacks, the landing boats would be supported by destroyers and torpedo boats, to keep any local gunboats off the landing forces, and supported by naval gunfire support from offshore.
The Italian plan was well detailed and organized, in sharp contrast to the 1908 war plan against Austria. That earlier war plan was more nearly a thought piece, or a work of strategic analysis. It aimed to find a way to grapple with the Austrians in the Adriatic when the Austrians held many strategic advantages, and came up with some 377 Operazioni di Sbarco en Provenza, File 285, USMM. This war plan is undated and no author is attributed, but it appears in the same file box as the protocol for the negotiations on the Naval Agreement, and other documents in the file are from 1913 as well.
Recommendations centered around the implementation of a distant blockade or opening a second front, without committing to any detailed course of action. The Provençal war plan, however was much more detailed. It specified which units were to take place in the invasion effort, including information on the size of those units and the amount of cargo space required for their transport. This list helped the Italians then plan which ships, drafted from their merchant fleet, would be loaded with what cargo. The list also included a set of alternate ships for each load, in case the originally planned for ship was not available. The plan also included detailed instructions for gathering the ships in their needed harbors for loading, a plan for forming the convoy, detailed navigational instructions, and instructions for escorting the convoys of merchant ships to their destinations. Units were assigned to the initial attacks, and some provision was made for their initial attacks and routes to their first objectives, though, perhaps reasonably, detailed plans were not made for moving on to the next set of objectives. Any such planning would have been largely useless anyway, and superseded by events on the ground. This plan has much more in common with the detailed plans for French mobilization, with their timetables, unit breakdowns, loading orders and preplanned movement than with the 1908 thought piece. It clearly seems to have been intended to be used as a detailed staff plan with minor modifications, than as a guide to strategic thought.
Ships detailed to the Combined Med Fleet - Central Powers
Ships committed to Combined Fleet:
10 BB, 1 CC, 13 Pre Dreadnoughts, 9 AC, 3 CL, 8 Scouts, 25 DD, 22 DL
A-H
4 BB Dreadnoughts
3 BB Radetzky
3 BB Ezherzog Karl
3 BB Hapsburg
2 AC
4 CL
6 DD (800 ton)
12 DL (400 ton)
Italy
6 BB Dreadnoughts
4 BB Regenia Elena
2 AC San Giorgio
2 AC Pisa
3 AC Garibaldi
4 CL Nino Bixio, Marsala, Quarto, Agordat
16 DD (6 1000ton DD)
10 DL (450t type)
24 TB (250t type)
30 MTB
Special Divison
2 Bennedetto Brin
2 St Bon
1 CC Goeben
3 CL Dresden, Magdeburg, Breslau
3 DD (The Italians laid down 3 Destroyers of the Alessandro Poerio class to contribute to the German Med Squadron)
Adriatic
3 AC Old Ita
Dandolo
2 old PC
6 DD
several squadrons of TB
3 CDBB Austrian Wein
2 Old AC
3 old PC
The basic plan called for loading five Italian Army Corps, their attendant supporting troops, and four cavalry divisions onto transports in northern Italy, particularly Genoa and Spezia. From these ports, the troops would be transported to their landing points, the beaches of St. Tropez and the Gulf of Fos near Marseilles. Another force would move to seize the old harbor of Marseilles. Once taken, St. Tropez and Marseilles would serve as ports where follow-on forces and supplies could be unloaded. Once ashore, the troops could attack Toulon, the main French naval base in the Mediterranean, from the landward side, knocking out the surviving remnants of the French Navy. During their movement, the convoys would be protected by a naval defense in depth. First, the major French bases in the area, Toulon in Provence and Ajacco and Calvi on Corsica, would be under blockade. The Italian Navy would also provide distant escorts to the north and south of the convoy route, as well as close escorts for the ships. During the attacks, the landing boats would be supported by destroyers and torpedo boats, to keep any local gunboats off the landing forces, and supported by naval gunfire support from offshore.
The Italian plan was well detailed and organized, in sharp contrast to the 1908 war plan against Austria. That earlier war plan was more nearly a thought piece, or a work of strategic analysis. It aimed to find a way to grapple with the Austrians in the Adriatic when the Austrians held many strategic advantages, and came up with some 377 Operazioni di Sbarco en Provenza, File 285, USMM. This war plan is undated and no author is attributed, but it appears in the same file box as the protocol for the negotiations on the Naval Agreement, and other documents in the file are from 1913 as well.
Recommendations centered around the implementation of a distant blockade or opening a second front, without committing to any detailed course of action. The Provençal war plan, however was much more detailed. It specified which units were to take place in the invasion effort, including information on the size of those units and the amount of cargo space required for their transport. This list helped the Italians then plan which ships, drafted from their merchant fleet, would be loaded with what cargo. The list also included a set of alternate ships for each load, in case the originally planned for ship was not available. The plan also included detailed instructions for gathering the ships in their needed harbors for loading, a plan for forming the convoy, detailed navigational instructions, and instructions for escorting the convoys of merchant ships to their destinations. Units were assigned to the initial attacks, and some provision was made for their initial attacks and routes to their first objectives, though, perhaps reasonably, detailed plans were not made for moving on to the next set of objectives. Any such planning would have been largely useless anyway, and superseded by events on the ground. This plan has much more in common with the detailed plans for French mobilization, with their timetables, unit breakdowns, loading orders and preplanned movement than with the 1908 thought piece. It clearly seems to have been intended to be used as a detailed staff plan with minor modifications, than as a guide to strategic thought.
Ships detailed to the Combined Med Fleet - Central Powers
Ships committed to Combined Fleet:
10 BB, 1 CC, 13 Pre Dreadnoughts, 9 AC, 3 CL, 8 Scouts, 25 DD, 22 DL
A-H
4 BB Dreadnoughts
3 BB Radetzky
3 BB Ezherzog Karl
3 BB Hapsburg
2 AC
4 CL
6 DD (800 ton)
12 DL (400 ton)
Italy
6 BB Dreadnoughts
4 BB Regenia Elena
2 AC San Giorgio
2 AC Pisa
3 AC Garibaldi
4 CL Nino Bixio, Marsala, Quarto, Agordat
16 DD (6 1000ton DD)
10 DL (450t type)
24 TB (250t type)
30 MTB
Special Divison
2 Bennedetto Brin
2 St Bon
1 CC Goeben
3 CL Dresden, Magdeburg, Breslau
3 DD (The Italians laid down 3 Destroyers of the Alessandro Poerio class to contribute to the German Med Squadron)
Adriatic
3 AC Old Ita
Dandolo
2 old PC
6 DD
several squadrons of TB
3 CDBB Austrian Wein
2 Old AC
3 old PC
Zentrum was moving away from their earlier pro-navalist stance, and SPD was gaining ground. Tirpitz himself was privately convinced that while the Naval League was increasingly jingoist and vocal, the general political will for new Naval Laws was no longer there.
What was the SPDs stance on the navy as a whole? I know that the liberals were for it, seeing how it was far easier to advance in the ranks of the navy than in the army where aristocrats had a firm grip on who gets promoted, and conservatives too should be somewhat in favor due to the interests of the industrialists who get to build ships. I'd imagine dockyard workers would be heavily for the navy too, as they like having paying jobs, which should translate into SPD support for the navy in the coastal cities.
For the National team, the military and other things you are supposed to use "we", as they represent the nation
A lot of people are speaking about what FF would do. The problem with that is that the POD was not his survival but no german blank checque and a diplomatic solution to the Sarajevo crisis. Though a conference mentioned by the OP is really unlikely - after Algeciras the CP's and especially Germany had lost their appetite for conferences.
I expect this only to be a short - maybe 2-3 years - delay to hostilities. I dont believe that a lasting solution could be found to the serbian-astrian conflict. Serbia will not stop the Black Hand - not for long and as at the time its sole focus was becoming Bosnia I expect a new incident - likely of less magnitude than the heir of the throne - to take place in at most a few years. In that time however much could and would happen. Austria would be at that point really anxious to solve the Serbian question. Thats a war waiting to happen and as long as russias seemingly unconditional support of Serbia continues - a Serbia that unless some very serious outside intervention will continue to support terrorist organization especially in Bosnia but maybe on other Austrian territories - thats not a war you can avoid forever.
OTL the relationship between the russians and London was deteroitating rapidly thanks to the russians disregarding their entente in Persia. The British however seemed to be sorting their problems with Germany and they will also shortly be immersed in the irish question. Even if they manage to close that by the time the war comes about i think they will be much more likely to sit out the conflict. the behaviour of the european GP's during the irish question could be also interesting: another blunder by Willy - which he was perfectly capable of - could push London to the side of Russia and France. The russian throwing the entente of 1907 completly to the wind seeing british preoccupation at home could be a deciding factor for London to be more friendly for Germany.
In the end if the british are neutral or on the german side the CP's win - even if Russia continued building up its army. If the British remain and join on the Entente side like OTL they win.
Another not unlikely possibility is a 3rd balkan war as soon as bulgaria recuperates somewhat: Romania, Serbia and Greece against Bulgaria and the Ottoman Empire - maybe also Albania but they are not really a factor. This could go either way, All potential participant hate each other and the Otto's and greeks were in a naval arms race were either side could decide to strike when they are finally ahead.
I expect this only to be a short - maybe 2-3 years - delay to hostilities. I dont believe that a lasting solution could be found to the serbian-astrian conflict. Serbia will not stop the Black Hand - not for long and as at the time its sole focus was becoming Bosnia I expect a new incident - likely of less magnitude than the heir of the throne - to take place in at most a few years. In that time however much could and would happen. Austria would be at that point really anxious to solve the Serbian question. Thats a war waiting to happen and as long as russias seemingly unconditional support of Serbia continues - a Serbia that unless some very serious outside intervention will continue to support terrorist organization especially in Bosnia but maybe on other Austrian territories - thats not a war you can avoid forever.
OTL the relationship between the russians and London was deteroitating rapidly thanks to the russians disregarding their entente in Persia. The British however seemed to be sorting their problems with Germany and they will also shortly be immersed in the irish question. Even if they manage to close that by the time the war comes about i think they will be much more likely to sit out the conflict. the behaviour of the european GP's during the irish question could be also interesting: another blunder by Willy - which he was perfectly capable of - could push London to the side of Russia and France. The russian throwing the entente of 1907 completly to the wind seeing british preoccupation at home could be a deciding factor for London to be more friendly for Germany.
In the end if the british are neutral or on the german side the CP's win - even if Russia continued building up its army. If the British remain and join on the Entente side like OTL they win.
Another not unlikely possibility is a 3rd balkan war as soon as bulgaria recuperates somewhat: Romania, Serbia and Greece against Bulgaria and the Ottoman Empire - maybe also Albania but they are not really a factor. This could go either way, All potential participant hate each other and the Otto's and greeks were in a naval arms race were either side could decide to strike when they are finally ahead.
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The radicals and socialists just won the legislative elections in France in 1914, and if I recall wanted to reduce military service time, so the numerical advantage France enjoyed in 1914 would not necessarily be the same later on. Of course with a rapidly growing Russian Army this may not have been a huge issue. Meanwhile France was steadily catching up in the heavy artillery department with a plan scheduled to be finished in 1917.
Moreover while production was not started in 1914 due to war becoming increasingly likely, it is possible here that France starts producing limited amounts of self-loading Meunier A6 rifles and improves it to the point where they can keep it in production during the war. The Lebel won't stay forever and the uniform may be finally changed as well.
Moreover while production was not started in 1914 due to war becoming increasingly likely, it is possible here that France starts producing limited amounts of self-loading Meunier A6 rifles and improves it to the point where they can keep it in production during the war. The Lebel won't stay forever and the uniform may be finally changed as well.
I am fully aware that this is an incredibly unlikely scenario but as it is the crux of the TL I'm currently writing I want to focus instead on the effects of this
I'm definitely thinking that the Unionists in Ireland try to rise up against the supporters of Home Rule, and I would suspect that a few Irish nationalists might try to secede from Britain entirely as well (this latter movement probably won't have much support and will end up as a short-lived experiment in a singular city, or perhaps a guerilla movement in the more remote regions of Ireland that ultimately amount to little more than a nuisance for the Brits), but this would most likely be distracting enough for Britain that they don't join a war between the Entente and CPs. Add to this the decades-long tensions between Britain and Russia and tbh I don't see Britain wanting anything to do with a war in Europe unless one side appears to be winning by a lot, in which case they'll try to prop up the opposite side in order to maintain the European balance of power
It seems the Germans would have to adopt a long war siege mentality, which they wouldn't like since that was the hope of the "France Only" plan to ignore. It seems their foreign policy would have to adjust to avoid war.
To do siege mode would involve:
1) Stockpiling strategic supplies.
2) Fortifications to reduce attrition
3) Some sort of increased capability to defend colonies since a quick war wouldn't happen to protect them virtually.