WI No WW1 in 1914?

How would Germany go about even attempting to make that seem like a realistic proposition?
Not possible. Germany was too weak in the Pacific to assure Japan of anything... what they could do, though, is maintain what few possessions they had. After all, let's be honest... what's one port, Tsingtao, and a handful of islands, compared to Manchuria or Indochina? What Germany perhaps could have done though, is leverage influence. If the onset of WWI doesn't happen, there's no reason to assume hostility between the UK and Germany... most of the issues had already been settled, and Sir Eddie can't stay in office forever...
I would draw the line about "all of Asia" though.... the UK would want a clear delineation of "spheres of influence"... but I don't think the UK would have a problem with Russian interests in Manchuria (including regaining their year-round ice-free port at Port Arthur) being thwarted preemptively by Japan...
 
It's not that they would be trying, per se... but the Twenty-one Demands managed to piss off everyone in OTL, despite Japan having already joined in on the Entente side in earnest...
would Japan still issue the Twenty-One Demands if there was no European war to distract the great powers?
 
Not possible. Germany was too weak in the Pacific to assure Japan of anything... what they could do, though, is maintain what few possessions they had. After all, let's be honest... what's one port, Tsingtao, and a handful of islands, compared to Manchuria or Indochina? What Germany perhaps could have done though, is leverage influence. If the onset of WWI doesn't happen, there's no reason to assume hostility between the UK and Germany... most of the issues had already been settled, and Sir Eddie can't stay in office forever...
I would draw the line about "all of Asia" though.... the UK would want a clear delineation of "spheres of influence"... but I don't think the UK would have a problem with Russian interests in Manchuria (including regaining their year-round ice-free port at Port Arthur) being thwarted preemptively by Japan...
so Britain effectively withdraws from European alliances and when a war breaks out between the powers Britain remains on the sidelines?
 
so Britain effectively withdraws from European alliances and when a war breaks out between the powers Britain remains on the sidelines?
Remember, we're not talking about "alliances" here... the "Entente" agreements with France and Russia were not military alliances on Britain's part, more a series of agreements to settle old disagreements, and did not obligate the UK to act militarily on either France or Russia's behalf...
 
*Franz Ferdinand will succeed the Austro-Hungarian throne in 1916 or 1917. His vision of a United States of Austria will likely result in 13-19 polities with more local control but could backfire and result in secession of at least a few of the nascent nation/states. He was known to be all but antipathic to Hungary, which will prove problematic, and will legitimize his children for the throne as well.

*Germany and the UK will continue discussions on whether to divide Portugal's colonies between themselves

*Russia will continue to industrialize and expand her expertise, they may become the world's foremost air force and first mechanized army in due time. While Alexis is unlikely to live long enough to be tsar, he might live long enough to marry and father an heir. The princesses will also be married off and could lead to changes in leadership of different European empires.

*Young Turks will continue to push for modernization and reforms in the Ottoman Empire while the Balkans remain a flashpoint. Another Balkan War is not out of the question.

*China is still moving into a warlord phase and will likely become a proxy battlefield for European and Japanese interests.

*Without a war to guide them, Russia's Socialists likely remain on the fringes while Lenin will be a footnote while Stalin may not even be that.

*Aircraft and submarines will still develop but at a slower pace, perhaps reaching OTL 1918 levels in the mid-to-late 1920s in this TL. Long-range airliners may emerge sooner (as flying boats at first) under the prospect of dual-use research.
 
A word on the Naval Race, there was a naval law enacted in May 1912 which by 1914 hadn't been completed and already enshrined replacement ships at 20 years. In December 1912 Germany changed tack, plans for a further naval law were dropped in favour of the first army expansion in decades. 135,000 more men in 1913-14 was the biggest peacetime expansion.

My guess is that without WW1 once the army expansion was finished the naval law would be bought up again. Germany could afford the big navy and it was popular with the Reichstag, it wasn't going away.
 
What influence does Germany have in the Pacific? What can they offer that Britain isn’t already offering or offering more of?
Exclusively in the Pacific? Not much... but all are "world powers", except for Japan.... influences could be applied elsewhere in such a manner that could be of benefit to Japan - particularly in regard to Russia....
 
I think the whole talk of the UK and Germany dividing up Portugal's African possessions is probably a bust... came to nothing in OTL, don't really think it would amount to much in an ATL... would be seen as just oppurtunism on Germany's part and a betrayal of an ages-old treaty on the UK's part....
 
I wonder what the fate of the Austro-Hungarian Empire would be. I mean, I guess it would break apart in some fashion, but when and how? Would Austria be able to keep it's access to the Med? Would a peaceful unification with Germany still be on the cards?
 
Here's how I see things developing in terms of diplomacy
Great Britain: probably gets closer to Germany (even if It still wouldn't be an ally) because of multiple factors:
1) end of the naval arms race
2) cooperation in the middle East
3) fear of Russia
4) cooperation in the Balkans
USA: stays mostly concerned about the western hemisphere and the far East, relations with the japanese might get even colder, which would probably force the UK to drop the Alliance with Japan in 1922
Germany: tries a reapproachment with the UK and might split Portuguse colonies with London, the influence of the Kaiser continues to dimish, Russia will still be seen as the main threat. Further economic penetration in the ottoman Empire is in the cards
Russia: multiple interest groups are fighting in Russia, the panslavists want more influence in the Balkans, the conservatives are especially hostile towards Britain and the liberals want a stronger alliance with the western Powers, especially France and the UK. Geostragetic policy would be a result of these three groups fighting. More focus towards Asia is a reasonable prediction.
France: radicals and socialists would probably push for a more germanophile policy, especially taking into account the fact that the two countries had a lot to gain from cooperation in the middle East. Poncarre is unlikely to stay in Power.
Australia Hungary: probably the hardest to predict, It depends a lot on how FF would want to reform the country, he would want to establish either a triple monarchy with a slavic Kingdom or the united States of Austria. Romania will probably drift into the Russian Camp, but relations with Serbia might get better. AH might cooperate with Italy against Serbia in Albania, but It would also oppose Italy in the same area.
Italy: drifts away from the alliance with AH and Germany but won't join any other alliance. Will seek an agreement with the UK and France regarding influence in the mediterranean. Ultimately Italy would try to get as much power as It can without ever going against the UK, cooperation and hostility towards the AH in Albania and Montenegro will continue. Italy would try to keep both Serbia and Greece in check since the two countries wanted more influence in the adriatic and the eastern mediterranean
Ottoman empire: war with Greece is a real possibility, other than that the CUP would continue the modernization of the country and would stay on the fence, playing the Western Powers and the Russians against each other. Obviously everything might change if the greeks defeat the Turks and the CUP falls from power.
Japan: keeps pushing towards further concessions in China, thus alienating the US and ultimately even the UK. That said, any Land grab is very unlikely. Another war and even an Alliance with Russia are both a possibility, the two countries would have a lot to gain from an alliance, but it's still unlikely.
Some things will stay the same, especially conflicts Bulgaria vs Greece, Greece vs the ottomans and Germany vs Russia, other than that the International situation is really volatile and the possibilities are endless
 
Apart from the Irish problem, postponing the war has a big effect on America.
Before ww1 Russian empire was major suppliers of grain. WW1 and communist caused this to end and Ameria become the major suppliers of grain and this made the dust bowl a lot worse due to increased ploughing of the great plains to produce grain in the wet years until the early 1930s when dry conditions returned.
Russia has more time to industrialise.
 
Germany could assure Japan control over all of Asia in return for assistance against Russia (and Britain)
Why would Germany want Japan more powerful in Asia?

Germany is more worried about a stronger Japan and German possessions are vulnerable. The Kaiser had said that the only ones to benefit from a General European War would be Japan and the United States.


Germany is more likely to have the Netherlands slide closer to it to protect the NEI. The Dutch were already benevolently neutral to Germany. The Dutch would rather sell the NEI to Germany or GB rather than have Japan just take them.

does this mean Europe is slightly more advanced ITTL? and is this technological, social, political, or economic development?
Yes, not just Europe. The debt overhang from the war had a massive global impact. It created giant government and massive tax collection and inflation for the government to silently take your money away. Proportions of trade and foreign investment didn't reach 1913 levels until the 1990's. The only thing that advanced was the military art but even then that is questionable ie. the overseas diesel patrol submarine had matured by 1914, the RN had pre-war plans for 300 aircraft by 1918, the first concepts for aircraft carriers were from 1910. What the war managed was massive numbers of mediocre stuff and then no money or investment following the war. There is no way 3,500 BE2's would be built without the war.
would Japan still issue the Twenty-One Demands if there was no European war to distract the great powers?
No. Japan was like Italy, a wannabe Great Power but not there yet. Without the war distracting Europe, the Japanese wouldn't have been this stupid.
 
Hmmm... I've been trying to think of ways to get Japan into the "CP Camp" for a while now, but not so sure about the UK's involvement.... I think that Japan would go out of their way to reassure the Brits (possibly not successfully) that their interests in China do not conflict with the UK's interests in China - so as not to upset the Anglo-Japanese Alliance. The UK may realize that their interests do NOT coincide with Russia's interest.
France will of course support the Russians... which could lead to bad things (for the French, at least) in Indochina well before 1941....
Fun thing is, if you butterfly away the onset of World War in 1914, the field really becomes wide open....

At the outset of the war, there was a movement in Japan to ally with Germany, led by several of the older genro. They believed Britain was doomed to lose the war and didn't want to be shackled to them, and believed Germany would make a better ally. They were outmaneuvered by the Foreign Minister, who was pro-British.

Before the war, in 1912, the Japanese were pursuing an alliance with Germany and possibly Russia; their ambassadors were called back with the death of the Emperor, and then the matter was never revisited.
 
Some tech things are happening in this. Diesel engine tech is just starting to get good, look for submarines to get large and rangy, although there will be less idea of the commerce war with them.

Air conditioning, and anti malaria drugs, are just now happening, allowing for larger numbers of Euros to settle in Africa, with more population and economic resources available to do it.
 
No. Japan was like Italy, a wannabe Great Power but not there yet. Without the war distracting Europe, the Japanese wouldn't have been this stupid.
That depends on your definition of great Power, but they were surely strong regional powes with plenty of potential and were usually taken into account when decisions had to be made.
For example Italy was invited by the French and the English in 1882 when the two countries intervened in Egypt, and in 1902 Italy along with the UK and Germany intervened during the Venezuelan crisis.
Japan was a Great Power in East Asia and intervened with China along the other powers during the boxer rebellion, then defeated Russia and annexed Korea
 
Given that even with the build up to WW1 the UK was still thoroughly engaged with trying to even draw up where the "border" was meant to be, I wouldn't make the assumption that violence would be prevented on the island.
Could someone explain what exactly is Irish Home Rule, and why it was controversial. What I mean by this is specifics. So what it going to be devolved/regional government or Dominion status (semi-independent country)? If it was a devolved Government what powers would it have, and why would that be bad for the Ulster-Scots? Was the main concern of the Ulster-Scots, that a devolved Ireland could move to independence, and the Ulster-Scots would be stuck in that independent state?
 
Belfast was highly industrialized, Harland & Wolff were one of the largest shipbuilders in the world however from 1912 they began to acquire shipyards in elsewhere in the UK due to political instability in Ireland. Belfast needed to stay part of the UK for economic reasons, the farmers in the rest of Ireland couldn't care and would rather be ruled from Dublin. The north produced a profit that subsidised the rest of Ireland. The northeners had a concern that it was 'Rome Rule' and that the Catholics need ships to put together the Papal states again. By the middle of 1914 the sourthern hold outs had largely given up on a single Ireland.
 
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