WI No WW1, effect on the Chinese Warlord era?

Would China get balkanized?

  • yes (explain)

    Votes: 8 53.3%
  • no (explain)

    Votes: 7 46.7%

  • Total voters
    15
Would different cliques get foreign support? would this lead to a stalemate? would China get balkanized?

(This isn't about how ww1 could've not occurred, but simply the effect on china when it was in its most precarious state if it hadn't)
 
I would say that if WWI didn't happen, Communism wouldn't have been as popular in China...
OTL, Communism was a fringe ideology before Versailles, which the Chinese were pissed off about due to the whole "give Qingdao to Japan" thing...
That sparked the May 4 movement, which is regarded as the beginning of modern Chinese nationalism, a lot more anti-Japanese sentiment, and Communism becoming more popular, due to Lenin promising that the Soviets would undo the unequal treaties the Russian empire had with China (which never happened, but the fact that he was willing to say such a thing and other Western powers didn't...).
 
Without WW I, I imagine the events in China would be interpreted by the Great Powers as the Sick Man of Asia finally entering his death throughs... which does conveniently open up a new frontier for Imperial expansion/colonial horse trading to stave off international crises. Japan is going to be a key player here: are they as keen to press their dominance over the regeime in Beijing if it's European counterparts are watching closely? I'd say yes, at least in the north, which would lead to Russo-Japanese flashpointd and thus likely Franco-Russian support of the CPM.
 
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