WI: No WP Invasion of Czechoslovakia?

[tallwingedgoat]

The 1968 Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia was a watershed event for the Soviet Union. IMO it was probably the single biggest mistake that doomed the Soviets. Unlike the Hungarian Revolution a decade earlier, the Czechoslovakians were not trying to end Communism but implement reform. The Soviets labeled their "Socialism with a human face" as heresy and declared the Soviet Union alone had the power to decide what kind of Communism was appropriate in Communist countries, and that it reserved the right to use force to get its way.

This was the infamous Brezhnev Doctrine. It sent the message that there was no sovereignty in Eastern Europe and made clear the WP was nothing more than a buffer zone for the Soviet Empire. It would be as if the United States invaded France so that the French would submit to American ideas on Capitalist welfare programs and laissez-faire economics.

What if Brezhnev gave Czechoslovakia some leeway to experiment on its own? Certainly this would be risky for the Soviets as other WP countries will inevitably follow suit. Even so I doubt it would end as catastrophically for the WP as it did in the late 80s.

 

[freivolk]

I´m not sure if it would be possible for the Soviets or even for the local communist in the CSSR to accept an ongoing reform and democratisation. Like Lincoln I say "a house divided can not stand" and any form of Democracy would in the long term the communist Regime and with this the integrity of the WP.
Still its possible, that more conservative element in the KPCSSR would have put a stop on the reforms, if it seemed that the position of the party was endangered.
Still would the absent of the invasion have major influence to the political landscape. If you read political books from late sixties its surprising to see, how common the idea was, that both superpowers would go the way of disengagement. It was expectet that the USA and the USSR would reduce their troops in Europe to a symbolic level and that NATO and WP would more and more lose an importance. I think even DeGaulle build his politice upon this ideas.
The Invasion devinitly destroyed this illusion. Even if the Invasion didn´t hurt Detente in the short term, it made it obvious, that the USSR wouldn´t reduce their influence in eastern Europe in the near future and that the soviet forces in eastern europe would still be a threat for NATO security.
I think its possible, that NATO would without the invasion would become a paper alliance in the seventies.

 

[yourworstnightmare]

I read somewhere that the Soviets were unsure about what to do with Czechoslovakia at first, and only after warnings from the DDR, Poland and Hungary did they settle for a invasion.

 

[Slowpoke]

Well, for one, no "roaring seventies" for Romania. Ceaușescu put on a massive show of denouncing and refusing the Soviet invasion (in truth, Romania had never been invited; it's a bit like the joke about the Police Academy recruiters and the midget); for this, in the early seventies Romania received several very generous IMF and WB loans, which the Communists horribly misused, and eventually led to the misery and deprivation of the '80s (as the regime was scrambling to pay the now-late loans via a nation-wide version of selling shit from your house).

It would actually be for the best: no loans means Romania remains thoroughly underdeveloped, but lacks the massive financial black holes of monolithic oversized industry and infrastructure. Furthermore, the clivage between rural and urban Romania would be smaller, reducing the general level of disenchantment and frustration.

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Well, for one, no "roaring seventies" for Romania. Ceaușescu put on a massive show of denouncing and refusing the Soviet invasion (in truth, Romania had never been invited; it's a bit like the joke about the Police Academy recruiters and the midget); for this, in the early seventies Romania received several very generous IMF and WB loans, which the Communists horribly misused, and eventually led to the misery and deprivation of the '80s (as the regime was scrambling to pay the now-late loans via a nation-wide version of selling shit from your house).

It would actually be for the best: no loans means Romania remains thoroughly underdeveloped, but lacks the massive financial black holes of monolithic oversized industry and infrastructure. Furthermore, the clivage between rural and urban Romania would be smaller, reducing the general level of disenchantment and frustration.

It would proabably still be Ceaucescu's private little fief though.

 

[Monty Burns]

What if Brezhnev gave Czechoslovakia some leeway to experiment on its own? Certainly this would be risky for the Soviets as other WP countries will inevitably follow suit. Even so I doubt it would end as catastrophically for the WP as it did in the late 80s.

I doubt that this would work in a way that would still classify Czechoslovakia as "communist". the Soviet union tried reforms and collapsed. The Chinese try economic reforms and a hard hadn on political reform and it worked so far - but that's not what the CSSR tried.

I think if the Soviets hadn't invaded, the CSSR would be less and less communist - with other eastern european countries following suit. In the end, either there is a delayed invasion or the CSSR ends being communist IMHO.

 

[Slowpoke]

It would proabably still be Ceaucescu's private little fief though.

Actually, without the 'roaring seventies' Romanian Communism would collapse quicker and with a higher acceptance from the different stratas of society. There's a good chance internal dissidence from within the Party to gain some measure of prominence. The 1977 earthquake would drain the very meagre internal funds and cause a large wave of unrest which could cause chages in the regime.

 

[mtg999]

I doubt that this would work in a way that would still classify Czechoslovakia as "communist". the Soviet union tried reforms and collapsed. The Chinese try economic reforms and a hard hadn on political reform and it worked so far - but that's not what the CSSR tried.

I think if the Soviets hadn't invaded, the CSSR would be less and less communist - with other eastern european countries following suit. In the end, either there is a delayed invasion or the CSSR ends being communist IMHO.

There are others on this thread, who I think would know a lot more about this than me, but didn't Czechoslovakia, like the DDR, Hungary and Poland (or perhaps it was only some of them?) operate under a slightly different political system than the Soviet Union? Unlike the Soviets, they weren't strictly a one-party state, but instead were a 'block party' (?) system, where non-Communist parties were permitted, but had to accept the dominance of the Communists?

Of course in OTL this was a total farce, but is it possible in this ATL for the Warsaw Pact nations to develop a more genuine 'guided democracy' system, with more genuine imput from non-Communist forces (but presumably actually questioning the Communist nature of the state will continue to be forbidden, it is after all a 'guided democracy'.)

 

[SunilTanna]

The real problem is that the communist regimes in Eastern Europe, and eventually we discovered in the USSR itself, had rubbish economies and very little real genuine support. As soon as you stop using force (or the threat of force) to prop up the regime, it all falls apart.