WI: No Watergate?

In OTL the Presidency of Richard Nixon was irreparably destroyed by the Watergate scandal... but what if it never happened? Simply put, what if Frank Wills, the security guard that night, either overlooked or never noticed the taped locks that led to the break-in's discovery? Did Nixon stand a decent chance of being re-elected, and what would his legacy be today without the scandal that blighted his tenure?
 
Did Nixon stand a decent chance of being re-elected, and what would his legacy be today without the scandal that blighted his tenure?

He'd still stand a less than decent chance. May I direct you to the First section of the 22nd Amendment to the United States Constitution, passed by congress in 1947 and ratified by the states in 1951:

"Section 1. No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once. But this article shall not apply to any person holding the office of President when this article was proposed by the Congress, and shall not prevent any person who may be holding the office of President, or acting as President, during the term within which this article becomes operative from holding the office of President or acting as President during the remainder of such term. "
 
Haha, woops.. who would succeed him then? Would Ford still be the next President of the U.S.?

I personally doubt it. As pretty much having become Vice-President accidentally and thus lacking real experience as an executive, and with Spiro's career and reputation ruined by the whole taking-bribes scandal, I think that the front-runner would be Ronald Reagan in 1976 (in OTL, he almost got the '76 nomination). Without Watergate being relatively recent, and mind you, before Watergate, Nixon was an extremely popular president, winning an astounding 520 electoral votes in 1972 with 60.7% of the popular vote, the Republican Reagan would quite probably win a huge landslide in 1976. For Vice President? Reagan would likely choose Ford, but I guess it can be discussed.

The Democrats would probably nominate someone else than Carter, who started out as a pretty unknown dark horse, who got the nomination for being a Washington outsider, something that was considered electable seeing how the Watergate affair made the population view D.C. with disgust. So, whom could the Democrats pick?

I guess the front runner in the primaries would be Henry M. Jackson, who as a consequence of the fiasco of the '72 election for the Dems would represent a radical shift from the peace-candidate McGovern, a reasonable thing to happen, considering that by 1976, most of Vietnam would already be over, and Nixon would likely have left office a highly popular president. Jackson had supported the Vietnam war, and had made himself known as a hawk on foreign policy matters and was an ardent anti-Communist, while still on economic policies being somewhere between McGovern and Carter.

And so, you'd have a third Republican presidential term and Reagan beginning an early Presidency.

At least that's my take on it...
 
I think Ford would have a chance. As it was the 1976 election was fairly close and one of the things that hurt Ford the most was the fact that he pardoned Nixon - something that wouldn't have happened in a "no-watergate" TL.

On the other hand, since in this situation Ford would not have become president, there is a good chance he himself might not have sought the presidency, or if he did, Nelson Rockefeller, Ronald Reagan, or some other Republican might challenge him. Or, if Nixon himself endorsed Ford (and I don't see why he wouldn't since he chose him as VP), why would anyone challenge the man recommended by a successful and popular Nixon. Who knows what the Democrats would do. "No-watergate" does pretty much butterfly away Carter - the anti-Nixon.
 
It's unlikely Ford would be VP if there was no Watergate; Nixon was too crippled politically to choose anybody else, and if he had the chance, he'd probably pick someone to set up as his successor for 1976. John Connally comes to mind, but I can't imagine he'd get that through Congress.

Still think Reagan gets the nod in 1976, though, and I like the idea of Jackson being his opponent. Butterflies might mean a Kennedy run, though.
 
The front runner for the Republicans would probably be whoever Nixon replaces Agnew with after Agnew resigns. I doubt Nixon would choose Ford since Nixon would have more political capital as the Watergate investigation wouldn't be happening during the nomination process. I doubt Nixon would choose Reagan (not even sure if he can since they're both from California). John Connally would be the top pick for Nixon, but I'm not sure if Congress would confirm him, especially if it's after Conally switches parties. Maybe George Bush Sr. or someone else already in the Nixon administration.
 

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I personally doubt it. As pretty much having become Vice-President accidentally and thus lacking real experience as an executive, and with Spiro's career and reputation ruined by the whole taking-bribes scandal, I think that the front-runner would be Ronald Reagan in 1976 (in OTL, he almost got the '76 nomination). Without Watergate being relatively recent, and mind you, before Watergate, Nixon was an extremely popular president, winning an astounding 520 electoral votes in 1972 with 60.7% of the popular vote, the Republican Reagan would quite probably win a huge landslide in 1976. For Vice President? Reagan would likely choose Ford, but I guess it can be discussed.

IMO it does not stand to reason that RR would gain the Republican nomination ITTL. A successful and popular Nixon double mandate would empower and embolden the moderate Nixon-Ford-Rockefeller wing of the Republican Party. A radical Goldwaterite like Reagan would be seen as even more outside the mainstream than OTL, and with no Watergate, this would be a huge liability.
 
Looking at how the Senate Elections might change without the taint of Watergate:

  • Peter H. Dominick, a Republican Senator from Colorado, was overwhelmed by Gary Hart following his strong support for Nixon during the Watergate Scandal. However there were also concerns regarding his Age and Health, so it is likely Hart would still have won the race, though by a much narrower margin.
  • Edward J. Gurney, a Republican Senator from Florida was also a strong supporter of Richard Nixon during the Watergate Scandal. However he was choose not to run due a personal scandal for which he was later convicted. It is possible that the Republican candidate Jack Eckerd under these conditions could win considering it was close even with the taint on the Republican Party provided by Watergate.
  • Birch Bayh, the Democratic Senator from Indiana is likely defeated by Indianapolis Mayor Richard Lugar. Despite his close ties Nixon, even being called "Nixon's Favorite Mayor", he managed to come within a few points of Bayh. Throw out Watergate and this is a likely Republican pickup.
  • There is an open seat left by Democratic Senator Harold Hughes in Iowa. Narrowly won by Democratic Candidate John Culver, it is possible that the Republican Candidate David Stanley could have won the seat, maybe even probable.
  • Marlow Cooke, the Republican Senator from Kentucky, lost to the Democratic Governor of the state Wendell Ford. He was also one of the first Republicans to call for Nixon's resignation. I think the election would have been up in the air under better conditions, a toss up.
  • The infamous election in New Hampshire for Norris Cotton's Seat. Very likely that Louis Wyman wins this race and thus makes it a Republican Hold rather than a Democratic Pickup.
  • George McGovern, Democratic Senator from South Dakota. Likely Republican Pickup by Leo K. Thorsness.
  • In Vermont, George Aiken the Republican Senator retired from office. There was a close race between the Democratic Nominee, Patrick Leahy, and the Republican Nominee, Richard Mallary, with the former coming out on top. Likely that the later, Mallary, would have won without the taint of Watergate.

So at worst a Democratic Gain of Two Seats, at best a Republican Gain of Two Seat.​
 
Republicans would still have an uphill battle to retain the presidency in '76. The WH generally switches parties at eight-year intervals and the U.S. went through a nasty recession with surging inflation in the runup to '76.

Also, contrary to CW, I actually suspect Carter may still have been the Democratic nominee. While Watergate may have enhanced his appeal in the General Election, Carter winning the Democratic nod had much more to do with Democratic intraparty divisions and the primary calendar. Carter was the only candidate who actually ran in every primary and caucus and ran from the start - everyone else tried a pre-'68 strategy of declaring late, running in just a few states, and hoping for a breakthrough at the convention. He was also the only candidate capable of bridging the gap between Northern and Southern Democrats, and he also had much of the southern Civil Rights establishment - and hence a lot of the black vote - behind him.

Agnew still resigns, Nixon still nominates Ford (seeing as Connolly would be too difficult to confirm). Ford, though, probably doesn't run for president in '76. Reagan runs, as does George Bush, and perhaps Nelson Rockefeller or Charles Percy. Reagan wins the nod, selects George Bush as his running mate, and loses to Carter by 5-6 points. (Yes, OTL '76 Ford nearly won, but Reagan typically polled much worse than Ford in OTL '76 polls and his public image was not that different from Rick Perry today.)

Four years later, Republicans, lacking any major candidates, recruit former VP Ford to run against the unpopular Carter. Ford selects Jack Kemp as his running mate and defeats Carter in a landslide. Republicans take both the Senate AND the House (as no '74 Democratic landslide makes the margins far tighter).

From that point on there are various butterflies and changes resulting from different personalities in Congress and different personal styles...
 
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