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WI Francesco IV, Duke of Mantua, didn't die of smallpox in 1612, neither his son Ludovico? How avoiding the War of the Mantuan Succession could affect the 30 Years War, and Northern Italy?

Also, as Richelieu first met Mazarin during the peace negociations, if there's no war Mazarin could never go to France. How different could be France without Jules Mazarin?
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