So, i was watching the most recent vid by Kings and Generals, and something crossed my mind...
What if Napoleon's forces had been more successful in the earliest stages of the Peninsular War (perhaps through victory at Vimeiro, or later victories at Bailén and Zaragossa), thus dissuading the Austrians from declaring war in 1809? What would be the political ramifications?
 
First thing to hear in mind is that the reason the Austrians went to war when they did, aside from the Peninsular distraction, was that the Hapsburgs’ military modernization efforts were costly, and that the budget could not sustain the standing army for much longer; in other words, it was go to war then and there or demobilize making a future war harder, putting Vienna was in kind of a “use it or lose it” situation.
 
First thing to hear in mind is that the reason the Austrians went to war when they did, aside from the Peninsular distraction, was that the Hapsburgs’ military modernization efforts were costly, and that the budget could not sustain the standing army for much longer; in other words, it was go to war then and there or demobilize making a future war harder, putting Vienna was in kind of a “use it or lose it” situation.

So, we can derive from this that Vienna is calculating, by not declaring war in this scenario, that because Napoleon is looking likely to end the situation in Iberia to their advantage, Prussia is prostrait, and there's no sign from Russia that they're going to renegade on Tilst anytime soon, staying aligned to France is going to be the wisest course for the foreseeable future? This puts Britain in a rough spot, as while she still has plenty of gold she's running out of Continental blood to buy with it.
 
So, we can derive from this that Vienna is calculating, by not declaring war in this scenario, that because Napoleon is looking likely to end the situation in Iberia to their advantage, Prussia is prostrait, and there's no sign from Russia that they're going to renegade on Tilst anytime soon, staying aligned to France is going to be the wisest course for the foreseeable future? This puts Britain in a rough spot, as while she still has plenty of gold she's running out of Continental blood to buy with it.
Some residual rivalry between France and Austria would still linger, i think, what with the previous issues of Austerlitz, the proclamation of the Confederation of the Rhine, the defeat of Prussia, and the creation of the Duchy of Warsaw, threatening to ignite separatist sentiments in Austria's portion of partitioned Poland.
With no Treaty of Schonnbrunn, Austria retains her Adriatic coast. Could this lead to Napoleon deciding to exert even more control over, or perhaps even annex, his Kingdom of Italy?
 
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If there is no War of the Filth Coalition because Austria ops out, then I guess Napoleon has supremacy of the continent and Russia is too intimidated to do... whatever gave Napoleon an excuse to invade and get his butt kicked.
 
If there is no War of the Filth Coalition because Austria ops out, then I guess Napoleon has supremacy of the continent and Russia is too intimidated to do... whatever gave Napoleon an excuse to invade and get his butt kicked.
Russia is still going to be inclined to drop out of the Continental System at some point (whether it be as OTL or somewhat later), by the simple fact that it has been bad for their economy and was only meant as a temporary measure to force Britain to the negotiating table; as long as Napoleon himself is in power, that will be met with a military invasion. So the only way to really avert that with no Fifth Coalition War is for that to somehow convince London to cave first, and I don't really see that.
 
Some residual rivalry between France and Austria would still linger, i think, what with the previous issues of Austerlitz, the proclamation of the Confederation of the Rhine, the defeat of Prussia, and the creation of the Duchy of Warsaw, threatening to ignite separatist sentiments in Austria's portion of partitioned Poland.
With no Treaty of Schonnbrunn, Austria retains her Adriatic coast. Could this lead to Napoleon deciding to exert even more control over, or perhaps even annex, his Kingdom of Italy?

I have no doubt Austrian smiles are going to be a little forced, but what I'm saying is by deciding to not declare war like our timeline they're implying a belief that keeping what they have, even if it's less than what they'd like, is preferable to playing dice with The Great Gambler with yet more of their territory at risk. At that point, they'd be waiting for a more oppritune moment several years down the line, after the reforms are starting to stick, the Russians ready to back them up .and the Brits open their wallet wide enough.

As for Italy, I don't think that's the ideal move. I think, honestly, at some point (once the Bourbons can be kicked off Sicily) there's a solid chance us sets up the Penninsula as a "Confederation of the Romans" like he did with the Germanies after absorbing Piedmont in order to create the conditions for a more focused development of France proper. As the man gets older, provided he feels the nation's hegemony is secure, I see him going a route similar of Sueliman the Great: moving from campaigning and mass political reforms to focus on cultivating his dynastic reputation and great building projects
 
I'm thinking that Britain is going to be sending a lot of attention South America's way, looking to separate the colonies from Spain proper, if we assume that Joseph is taking hold in the mother country.
 
I'm thinking that Britain is going to be sending a lot of attention South America's way, looking to separate the colonies from Spain proper, if we assume that Joseph is taking hold in the mother country.

Actually, this might benefit the unity/loyalty of the Spainish Empire in the long term: Britain is going to be primarily concerned with keeping the colonies in a politically and economically united front (hostile to Nappy, of course), and the best way to do that as well as keep normal commerical-political relations going is supporting the relocation of the Cadiz Cortes and/or Supreme Junta out of Southern Spain (If it looks like the Bonapartists are closing in, they have control of the sea and can easily stage a safe evaculation) either to the safety to London or maybe a court across the sea (Havana or Cartagena are probably the best choices), where the colonial represenatives they invited would be able to actually arrive and negotiate. Given they can leverage the promise of money and manpower to retake the mother country and sustain Spain as an independent political entity (rather than just cashiered guests of the British) the Americans can easily push for equal representation and acceptable degrees of autonomy in the new Constitution that will gurantee them their voice even if the homeland is eventually restored (And, if its a Napoleonic Europe scenario, they actually become the new dominating class) The Bourbon Reforms were already kicking off intra-colonial commerce, so a more decenteralized/liberal "Spainish Main"/Gulf region staying loyal to the Crown or at least each other for longer is a real possability.
 
Actually, this might benefit the unity/loyalty of the Spainish Empire in the long term: Britain is going to be primarily concerned with keeping the colonies in a politically and economically united front (hostile to Nappy, of course), and the best way to do that as well as keep normal commerical-political relations going is supporting the relocation of the Cadiz Cortes and/or Supreme Junta out of Southern Spain (If it looks like the Bonapartists are closing in, they have control of the sea and can easily stage a safe evaculation) either to the safety to London or maybe a court across the sea (Havana or Cartagena are probably the best choices), where the colonial represenatives they invited would be able to actually arrive and negotiate. Given they can leverage the promise of money and manpower to retake the mother country and sustain Spain as an independent political entity (rather than just cashiered guests of the British) the Americans can easily push for equal representation and acceptable degrees of autonomy in the new Constitution that will gurantee them their voice even if the homeland is eventually restored (And, if its a Napoleonic Europe scenario, they actually become the new dominating class) The Bourbon Reforms were already kicking off intra-colonial commerce, so a more decenteralized/liberal "Spainish Main"/Gulf region staying loyal to the Crown or at least each other for longer is a real possability.
My understanding is that Spain looks to be a win for Napoleon, or at least not a morass for him. His doing well is what helps Austria decide the time is not right.

With that in mind, Britain has two aims in South America: separate them from Nap controlled Spain, and pull the colonies into a British economic orbit. This latter doesn't necessarily mean British governing them directly (turning them into British colonies). The Spanish Colonies are looking at independence, or pretending to be holding the seat warm for a return to the rule of the rightful king. The last thing many of the colonies want is a return to status quo. Britain doesn't really want that either - they (colonies) might decide a Nap run Spain is ok with them if he allows a modicum of self rule or other economic benefit. I doubt you're going to see colonial masses lining up to push Nap out of Spain. That part is up to the Spanish masses. And that leads us to a giant colonial entity which is way too geographically dispersed and culturally divided to make one united states of south america. Britain would do as they did OTL: encourage balkanization, which then makes each entity easier to control/toady to British interests/keep away from Spain. Britain is just as eager to come out of this mess with a lot of geopolitical/economic benefits as they are to kick Nap out.
 
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Bump.
In case Napoleon's control over Spain is firmer from the start, how does this affect the situation of Spain's American colonies?
 
So, i've been thinking a bit more about this scenario, and i'd wager that the Spanish American colonies would likely break apart from the metropole sooner than IOTL, assuming that Joseph's government chooses to claim the Americas as their own (even if they don't have the naval power to project into that place). IIRC, it was the Siege of Cádiz in 1810, and the utter lack of a proper land power in Europe (besides Russia) to counter Napoleon, that kickstarted the Latin American Inependence Wars as we know them IOTL.
However, in a "no Bailén and thus no Wagram" scenario, there's still Austria to contend with, even if they have backed down from their intent to attack France as soon as possible.
 
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