WI no war of Bavarian Succession?

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Suppose Frederick does not organize an anti-Austrian coalition to oppose Joseph during the Bavarian Succession Crisis and let's Joseph make gains rather than opposing it with force.

Under the deal made, which of the places below would Joseph gain:

The entire Wittelsbach domain in Bavaria (similar in shape/size to the medieval stem duchy)?

Just Upper and Lower Bavaria, but not the Upper Palatinate

Just Lower Bavaria, and neither Upper Palatinate nor Upper Bavaria.

Here is a map below for reference:

220px-WV-Bavaria_regions_svg.png


What would be the long run impact of Austria gaining one or more of the districts mentioned above?

Could Joseph have had had his way with the Bavarian territory he arranged to get by buying off Prussia with territorial compensation elsewhere?

Candidate territories might include:

1. Danzig (this was still an exclave of the PLC, even though Brandenburg and East Prussia had become joined by the first Polish partition of 1772)

2. Hanover - Prussia would have to fight Hanoverians for it, but Britain was in no position to contribute to the defense of Hanover at this time. Also, a Prussian conquest of Hanover would cut of the flow of German mercenaries for the British to use in the American theater or any other, as troops would not be available from Hanover itself or German states further south in Hesse.

3. The big prize, Saxony. Again the Prussians would have to fight the Wettin Saxons for it, but it would be a great contiguous addition for Prussia, and Saxony is incapable of holding off the Prussians unless there is a great power coalition rallying for Saxony.

3.
 
What would be the long run impact of Austria gaining one or more of the districts mentioned above?

This snippet of a map of central Europe in 1786

CE1547.jpg


suggests the possible consequences of Habsburg acquisition of Bavaria. Note the scattered light brown territories in SW Germany: along the upper Danube, in the bend of the Rhine, and by Lake Constance, labeled "Hither Austria" ("Hither", right by the Rhine, "Aus" to the east by the head of the Danube, and "tria" over next to Bavaria). These were Habsburg dominions, the remnant of their original holdings in Switzerland and Swabia, before they acquired Austria. During the "mediatization" of the HRE in 1803-1806. the Habsburgs gave up all this territory to Baden and Wurttemburg, which also acquired the ecclesiatical states, Imperial Cities, and petty states in the area. One presumes that the Habsburgs didn't care much about these territories, in part because they were disconnected from their core territories in and around Austria.

If they get Bavaria, that condition goes away. Thus in the mediatization, Austria would have a strong incentive and the ability to keep Hither Austria absorb the surrounding petty states - perhaps everything south of the orange line on the map. (This is a scan of a map in Shepherd's Historical Atlas, on-line at the Perry-Castañeda Library Map Collection; I think someone drew the line on the map page of the copy digitized by the PCLMC.) It follows, more or less, the Catholic/Protestant line across southern Germany.

Thus the purely German part of the Habsburg realm, i.e. "Austria", roughly doubles. Austria is larger, stronger, more influential in Germany. The Napoleonic Wars will be substantially altered because Bavaria will not be a major French ally. This may lead to Germany unifying in the 19th century under Austrian leadership, or to a smaller Germany-without-Austria.

With a larger German base, Austria may be strong enough to hold securely onto the Czech lands, Hungary, Istria/Dalmatia, and perhaps even Venetia and Lombardy.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Interesting map and observation about hither Austria

It follows, more or less, the Catholic/Protestant line across southern Germany.

Interesting - yeah I guess Wurttemburg, Ansbach and Franconia have a lot of Protestants. Although I think Baden and the Palatinate, Rhine Province and Westphalia are majority Catholic.
 
Interesting map and observation about hither Austria

Interesting - yeah I guess Wurttemburg, Ansbach and Franconia have a lot of Protestants. Although I think Baden and the Palatinate, Rhine Province and Westphalia are majority Catholic.
This map shows the situation in 1618.
central_europe_relig_1923.jpeg



Baden was Catholic, Wurttemberg was Lutheran, Franconia (Ansbach and Bayreuth) and Upper Palatinate were Reformed, while Bavaria and southern Swabia were Catholic. Possibly the Habsburgs could make a deal to buy off Prussia; Prussia inherited Franconia from another branch of the Hohenzollerns in 1791 anyway, but Upper Palatinate would be a nice bonus.

Incidentally, most of the areas marked "Reclaimed to Roman Catholicism" were never solidly Protestant, more like 25% to 50%.
 
@Anarch King of Dipsodes Upper Palatinate was Catholic by 1778.

I would suggest that Austria let Prussia annex Ansbach and Bayreuth as you suggest, but also Nuremberg. Beside that I suggest that Austria and Prussia make a deal about Austria annexing Salzburg against Prussia taking Würzburg. This later deal serve to as a bonus to the Prussians, as the Austrians got the better part in the first deal and the Prussians got the better in the second deal. The problem with giving Prussia Danzig, are that it also means the Russians are going to get something, so unless Austria want the 2nd partition in 1778 they need to give Prussia land in Germany. There's a alternative, if the Bavarian elector dies in 1771, the Austrians could make a Austrian annexation of Bavaria part of the 1st Polish Partition deal.
 
Austria had NO allies in the attempt. Virtually everyone opposed Austria getting any stronger. The war ended up being pretty low key because Austria realized the situation and backed down, and all the opposition knew Austria had no shot at getting Bavaria, so they, too kept it low. Having Prussia basically joining Austria alarms all the other powers. Britain was a wee bit occupied in the colonies, but France and Russia would very likely rearrange their schedule to deal with a major threat to balance of power.
 
@Anarch King of Dipsodes Upper Palatinate was Catholic by 1778.
Hmm. I don't have maps for later religious distribution in Germany.
I would suggest that Austria let Prussia annex Ansbach and Bayreuth as you suggest, but also Nuremberg.

Oh yes. But were Imperial Cities up for grabs? Not IIRC.

Beside that I suggest that Austria and Prussia make a deal about Austria annexing Salzburg against Prussia taking Würzburg.

In the 1780s, no one is annexing ecclesiastical domains yet. IIRC the AB of Salzburg was always a Habsburg anyway.

This later deal serve to as a bonus to the Prussians, as the Austrians got the better part in the first deal and the Prussians got the better in the second deal.
In the intitial deal, as revised, Austria gets Bavaria but gives up Belgium, while Prussia gets cookies for nothing.

The problem with giving Prussia Danzig, are that it also means the Russians are going to get something, so unless Austria want the 2nd partition in 1778 they need to give Prussia land in Germany. There's a alternative, if the Bavarian elector dies in 1771, the Austrians could make a Austrian annexation of Bavaria part of the 1st Polish Partition deal.

That's an interesting idea.
 
Hmm. I don't have maps for later religious distribution in Germany.

Distribution_final.jpg


Outside Poland this is pretty much the post 1648 religious borders of Germany.


Oh yes. But were Imperial Cities up for grabs? Not IIRC.

Nuremberg wasn'ty hostile to a Prussian takeover

In the 1780s, no one is annexing ecclesiastical domains yet. IIRC the AB of Salzburg was always a Habsburg anyway.

Austria and Bavaria negotiated over a partition of Salzburg in the 1780ties, it failed over Prussian opposition. If Prussia and Austria are onboard these bishoprics could be annexed. Especially because they wasn't electorates.
In the intitial deal, as revised, Austria gets Bavaria but gives up Belgium, while Prussia gets cookies for nothing.

I'm talking about "my" two deals

That's an interesting idea.

Yes I think a earlier deal would be better, as it would also get Russia aboard.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
Possibly the Habsburgs could make a deal to buy off Prussia; Prussia inherited Franconia from another branch of the Hohenzollerns in 1791 anyway, but Upper Palatinate would be a nice bonus.

I think the Wettins of Saxony would be quite panicked at having large Hohenzollern blocks of territory to both their north *and* south. Not that this would be a definite showstopper on its own.

I could see Joseph and other Austrians feeling discomfort with having the Prussians own Upper Palatinate, so close to Prague and Munich. On the other hand, the Austrians could see it as an opportunity and the Prussians could see it as a risk, to have a potentially vulnerable Prussian exclave exposed to Austrian power centers.
 
I think the Wettins of Saxony would be quite panicked at having large Hohenzollern blocks of territory to both their north *and* south. Not that this would be a definite showstopper on its own.

I could see Joseph and other Austrians feeling discomfort with having the Prussians own Upper Palatinate, so close to Prague and Munich. On the other hand, the Austrians could see it as an opportunity and the Prussians could see it as a risk, to have a potentially vulnerable Prussian exclave exposed to Austrian power centers.
It wouldn't matter, seizing such an exclave would 1 do little damage to a Prussian war effort and 2 pull men away from the main fight in Bohemia and Silesia potentially giving the Prussians an advantage and resulting defeat in a given conflict.

At the end of the day any Austro-Prussian war will be won or lost in Bohemia and Silesia
 
Top