Well, if the POD is, say, A Federalist being elected in place of Madison, I can easily see not having a War of 1812. If friendly relations with UK continue, we can expect the US to move against French territory (possibly, though not strictly, allied with Canadian troops). The US would most definitely take Louisiana (with New Orleans). It may also nab Florida while Spain allies with France (the puppet government, at least). Ensuing tensions might cause friction with New Spain (Mexico). I'd expect a Canada reaching further south in the west, and a more Caribbean/Latin America USA. Russian Alaska might come out of it too, if Britain doesn't make the purchase (if the sale isn't butterflied away, which it may well be).