What if there was no Voting Rights Act of 1965? What effects does this have on elections?
Completely agreed with all of this. Also, in regards to your last point here, I would like to point out that any supporter of the Voting Rights Act could simply say that he or she voted to enforce something that was a part of the U.S. Constitution for 95 years by this point in time.It passed the Senate 77-19 https://www.govtrack.us/congress/votes/89-1965/s78 and the House 333-85. https://www.govtrack.us/congress/votes/89-1965/h87
For it not to pass you need a *very* different Congress in 1965--which presumably would have a lot of consequences apart from voting rights.
Indeed, in some respects voting rights is the easiest thing to pass a civil rights bill about, since unlike housing or employment discrimination it has very little effect outside the South.
If this somehow magically occurs without butterflies, we might see somewhat less of a shift of White Southern voters from the Democrats to the Republicans. After all, I seem to remember reading about how one GOP strategist said around 1970 that, without massive numbers of Blacks registering to vote, Southern Democrats would have continued their historical alignment with the Democrats.What if there was no Voting Rights Act of 1965? What effects does this have on elections?
The POD is that nobody introduces the Voting Rights Act.It passed the Senate 77-19 https://www.govtrack.us/congress/votes/89-1965/s78 and the House 333-85. https://www.govtrack.us/congress/votes/89-1965/h87
For it not to pass you need a *very* different Congress in 1965--which presumably would have a lot of consequences apart from voting rights.
Indeed, in some respects voting rights is the easiest thing to pass a civil rights bill about, since unlike housing or employment discrimination it has very little effect outside the South.
The POD is that nobody introduces the Voting Rights Act.
Completely agreed with all of this. Also, in regards to your last point here, I would like to point out that any supporter of the Voting Rights Act could simply say that he or she voted to enforce something that was a part of the U.S. Constitution for 95 years by this point in time.
If this somehow magically occurs without butterflies, we might see somewhat less of a shift of White Southern voters from the Democrats to the Republicans. After all, I seem to remember reading about how one GOP strategist said around 1970 that, without massive numbers of Blacks registering to vote, Southern Democrats would have continued their historical alignment with the Democrats.
Please keep in mind that the states in the Upper South plus Texas voted for LBJ in 1964, though. Heck, Texas even voted for Humphrey four years later.It was the Civil Rights Act of 1964, not the Voting Rights Act, that turned southern whites away from the Democratic party (on the national level). A glance at the 1964 election results will show that. The VRA at least provided *some* counterweight, though not enough to make the Deep South competitive for the Democrats until 1976, and then not for long.
Please keep in mind that the states in the Upper South plus Texas voted for LBJ in 1964, though. Heck, Texas even voted for Humphrey four years later.
Completely agreed with your point here.But Goldwater had extraordinary weaknesses--and he still made decent showings (well over his national average) in even the non-Deep South. Even leaving aside the fear he would lead the US into a nuclear war, 44.5% in Tennessee isn't that bad for someone who wants to sell the TVA, and 48.85% is pretty good in Florida for someone who wants to make Social Security voluntary...