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Now, let's say due to various events during WWII in 1945 France decides to quit Indochina in quick order, while UK is in no mood to intervene and Ho Chi Minh succesfully woos US adminstration. As a result, Vietnam turns into Yugoslavia by the South China Sea, a communist state but not aligned with Sino-Soviet block. In exchange for US guarantees, Vietnam agrees not to support Laotian or Cambodian communists.

What happens next? Some form of Chinese support for Laotian guerrillas is probably inevitable and will result in a larger or smaller conflict.

Is this feasible at all? What will the butterflies be?
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