Now, let's say due to various events during WWII in 1945 France decides to quit Indochina in quick order, while UK is in no mood to intervene and Ho Chi Minh succesfully woos US adminstration. As a result, Vietnam turns into Yugoslavia by the South China Sea, a communist state but not aligned with Sino-Soviet block. In exchange for US guarantees, Vietnam agrees not to support Laotian or Cambodian communists.
What happens next? Some form of Chinese support for Laotian guerrillas is probably inevitable and will result in a larger or smaller conflict.
Is this feasible at all? What will the butterflies be?
If Ho Chi Minh is in charge, why would he have hostility with the Soviet Union or Chinese Communist Party. Had either of them wronged the Vietnamese Communist Party or Ho Chi Minh by this time. Wouldn’t Ho see them as sources of knowledge and techniques for controlling and developing their country, in addition to potential sources of material support? Even if stingy with material support, Ho would probably see them as important sources of expertise and training.
Stalin would not have the satisfaction of the Red Army and Soviet administrators being present in significant numbers, and therefore may be concerned about Ho’s loyalty and reliability. However, will he try to micromanage Vietnamese affairs or change local leadership in the early years? Those were the types of things that alienated Tito. The distance issue cuts both ways. On the one hand, it means less detailed control. On the other hand, it means a lack of expertise or urgency in ensuring conformity, compared with the European satellite states.
And if Ho’s power is not seriously contested by outside powers or threatening to become an international crisis threatening the core Socialist sphere, how much fine-tuning will Stalin think is needed, and how much time will he spend thinking about it in the first place?
Meanwhile, will the US see Ho’s Vietnam as being a relevant target for investment, or for making a deliberate attempt to outbid the USSR? What could/would Washington expect Vietnam to do for the U.S. and how much would it matter. It seems Europe and Japan and the Middle East would all be higher priorities.
Was Ho sitting there, waiting to be bribed by the US?
An answer could be seeking US support against China, I suppose. But, the Chinese Nationalists are not likely to stick around after looting the place, the scenario might forestall ChiNat occupation anyway, and China is not much threat at this time, being absorbed in Civil War in the late 1940s and building socialism in the early 1950s.
Ho might have a reason to fear Nationalist China in the late 1940s (until the regime’s weakness becomes apparent), but why should he fear the Chinese Communists before they even have control of the Chinese state?