WI : No Vargas?

Anyone here knowledgeable about Brazilian First Republic up tp 1930? I'm trying to figure out how would Brazil have developed without Getulio Vargas. The man was propelled by compromise between political factions and a military coup, which then proceed to enact pro middle class and pro-worker policies later to be dubbed as Brazillian New Deal. But what if had his reforms not happened?
 
Anyone here knowledgeable about Brazilian First Republic up tp 1930? I'm trying to figure out how would Brazil have developed without Getulio Vargas. The man was propelled by compromise between political factions and a military coup, which then proceed to enact pro middle class and pro-worker policies later to be dubbed as Brazillian New Deal. But what if had his reforms not happened?

Something was going to happen, due to the power vacuum created by the destruction of the economic power of the São Paulo and Minas Gerais planter elite(mainly the first one). The Old Republic(the Brazilian one, not the Galactic one) was broke in both economical and political terms and I doubt it would be able to survive the 30's.

The question is what would have emerged. I don't think communism would be a real contender, at least not from the start(no relevant support base back then), but a fascist-like movement, or one like the Portuguese Estado Novo may be(should be?) possible.

In that case, I'd expect a watered-down version of the Vargas reforms; they made a lot of sense for the time, especially the economical ones. Some of the social ones would be in as well. The biggest change would be the propaganda attached to it, IMO. That would depend on what would be the winning faction.
 
The hunch I have is a step by step democratic erosion by Tenentismo into a military junta that will might last well longer then Vargas' reign.
 
How about Salgado and bros?

The integralist action had over a million members by 1937, so they are the most realistic opition

The old republic HAD to die, not only it was overly corrupt but it was also delaying the progress in Brazil
 
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The integralist action had over a million members by 1937, so they are the most realistic opition

The old republic HAD to die, not only it was overly corrupt but it was also delaying the progress in Brazil

Ridwan Asher, when Gukpa spoke something about Brazil, this means that this is the most valid answer.


But still

Gukpa, if Salgado ascends, what about the fate of the Patrianovistas?
 
The integralist action had over a million members by 1937, so they are the most realistic opition

Indeed, but which Integralists? My understanding is there were many competing ideas within the AIB of what exactly Integralism was and how an Integralist government would be.

The old republic HAD to die, not only it was overly corrupt but it was also delaying the progress in Brazil

Actually, I think it was even more than had to die; the Old Republic had no other option but to die. I can't see any way of it surviving; its structural defects wouldn't allow it to take the actions needed to survive. Changing it so it would be able to means it wouldn't be the Old Republic anymore.

EDIT - Adding this one:

The hunch I have is a step by step democratic erosion by Tenentismo into a military junta that will might last well longer then Vargas' reign.

Either by Tenentismo or by the government's reaction to it and other movements. It's not usually mentioned, but the Old Republic was stepping up repression since the early 20's(roughly contemporary with the rise of Tenentismo and union agitation; I don't know which came first). Artur Bernardes spent most of his term as president governing under a declared State of Siege; Washington Luís sent anarchists to forced labour camps in Amapá, camps that would have been quite similar to the penal camps in French Guyana. So the erosion was already underway.
 
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Well, before answering, I want to promote this clip I made about integralism :D https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SP5QD-CEFHA&feature=share

Now, If the integralists took power they probably wouldn't restore the monarchy as the patrionovistas wanted, but they wouldn't purge them either, because in the 1936 manifest is is written "We will keep the government republican, federative and democratic, just adapting it to our corporativist point of view"¹

About the differing point of views, that was true, for example, Gustavo Barroso was very anti semite (he even wrote a book called "Brazil, the paradise of the bankers"), but the AIB was strongly against anti semitism or any kind of ratial hate; while some disputes for power could happen, they would not escalate since the movement was centralized on Plinio Salgado and hardly someone would defy his word (for example, the 1938 intentona was made without his acknowledge because they knew that he would be against it)

¹http://integralismohistoriaedoutrina.blogspot.com.br/2015/09/integralismo-e-monarquia.html
 
Oh I understand that Old Republic was crumbling from inside. It simply could not withstood the change of time. I'm also pretty sure that the old constitutional structure will be dismantled sooner or later. By whom though is the question.

Integralism and some sort of junta have been mentioned. I'm not sure about government's reaction though. By that does it mean an attempt at industrialization and developing bourgeoise economy in the hands of the old elite of Minas Gerais-Sau Paulo duality? Would that even be possible?
 
Oh I understand that Old Republic was crumbling from inside. It simply could not withstood the change of time. I'm also pretty sure that the old constitutional structure will be dismantled sooner or later. By whom though is the question.

Integralism and some sort of junta have been mentioned. I'm not sure about government's reaction though. By that does it mean an attempt at industrialization and developing bourgeoise economy in the hands of the old elite of Minas Gerais-Sau Paulo duality? Would that even be possible?

Quite the opposite, while the integralists were strongly reactionaries (like the carlists in Spain, action française in france or Salazar in Portugal), their economic views were way more to the left than Vargas, their 1932 manifest (also the 1974 and the 2006 one) all support land reform with a corporativist economy. If they ousted Vargas in 1938 (Or as this thread say, if there was no Vargas) we could see first a period of economic stagnation while the land reforme was being conducted, then followed by a economic miracle like happened in Franco's Spain
 
I didn't ask about the Integralists though. Rather, I was asking whether the Cafe Com Leite older Elite could've carried the reforms themselves and thus preseve their primacy.
 
Not much as getting rid of him physically as simply prevent him from gaining power by having another candidate seizes it (though I am open with Vargas' untimely death). Probably Washington Luis decides to obey the Golden Rule and nominates someone from Minas Gerais, and see what happens from there. Or probably Andrada, instead of suggesting Vargas, decides to step up on his own.
 
Not much as getting rid of him physically as simply prevent him from gaining power by having another candidate seizes it (though I am open with Vargas' untimely death). Probably Washington Luis decides to obey the Golden Rule and nominates someone from Minas Gerais, and see what happens from there. Or probably Andrada, instead of suggesting Vargas, decides to step up on his own.

If that happened the old republic would continue, the best way to end the republic and get rid of Vargas is making another leader of the provisory government (1930-1934) takes power instead of him, or just makes the integralists coup him in 1938.
 
Not much as getting rid of him physically as simply prevent him from gaining power by having another candidate seizes it (though I am open with Vargas' untimely death). Probably Washington Luis decides to obey the Golden Rule and nominates someone from Minas Gerais, and see what happens from there. Or probably Andrada, instead of suggesting Vargas, decides to step up on his own.

Probably the best option is if he never goes to Rio de Janeiro. The deputy from Rio Grande do Sul Rafael Cabeda doesn't die in 1921, causing the special election when Vargas got his chair in the Chamber of Representatives. He remains a state deputy in Rio Grande do Sul, only involved in local politics.
 
Probably the best option is if he never goes to Rio de Janeiro. The deputy from Rio Grande do Sul Rafael Cabeda doesn't die in 1921, causing the special election when Vargas got his chair in the Chamber of Representatives. He remains a state deputy in Rio Grande do Sul, only involved in local politics.

What do you say about the old Cafe Com Leite elite carrying out partial reforms themselves?
 
What do you say about the old Cafe Com Leite elite carrying out partial reforms themselves?

I doubt it. They saw the writing on the wall during the 1920's and did nothing. During the election, Vargas actually offered to Julio Prestes the withdrawn of his candidacy if he accepted to apply minimal reforms. Prestes simply refused everything proposed. Something new was bound to replace them after the crisis of 1929. IOTL, it was Getulio Vargas. Here, there is a lot of room to speculation.
 
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You still haven't answered my question, Gukpard.

Well, you question was "By that does it mean an attempt at industrialization and developing bourgeoise economy in the hands of the old elite of Minas Gerais-Sau Paulo duality? Would that even be possible?"

I said that if the integralists grabbed power that would not be possible since they were strongly against that system
 
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