Anyone here knowledgeable about Brazilian First Republic up tp 1930? I'm trying to figure out how would Brazil have developed without Getulio Vargas. The man was propelled by compromise between political factions and a military coup, which then proceed to enact pro middle class and pro-worker policies later to be dubbed as Brazillian New Deal. But what if had his reforms not happened?
Something was going to happen, due to the power vacuum created by the destruction of the economic power of the São Paulo and Minas Gerais planter elite(mainly the first one). The Old Republic(the Brazilian one, not the Galactic one) was broke in both economical and political terms and I doubt it would be able to survive the 30's.
The question is what would have emerged. I don't think communism would be a real contender, at least not from the start(no relevant support base back then), but a fascist-like movement, or one like the Portuguese Estado Novo may be(should be?) possible.
In that case, I'd expect a watered-down version of the Vargas reforms; they made a lot of sense for the time, especially the economical ones. Some of the social ones would be in as well. The biggest change would be the propaganda attached to it, IMO. That would depend on what would be the winning faction.