WI: No V-2 Missiles

[SpaceGeek]

The onset of World War 2 and resulting ballistic missile program developed by Nazi Germany dramatically accelerated rocket technology in OTL. But imagine things had been different. What if the V-2 or ballistic missiles in general aren't developed and instead the V-1 or more conventional weapons are used.

How would this effect the world after WW2. IOTL both the United States and Soviet Union captured the V-2 and developed larger, more powerful rockets. The V-2 was the direct ancestor to the ICBMs of the cold war and the launch vehicles of the Space Age.

But if the V-2 was never developed these missiles and rockets would never be developed. The space age would still happen but would be significantly slowed down and payload mass would severely limited. The 1946 WAC corporal for example could reach 80 km apogee, but could only lift 11 kg over 30 km.

 

[SpaceGeek]

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[SpaceGeek]

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[LeX]

Well first, of all, there's something called a search function...

...second, it's not like the idea of ballistic missiles won't exist without the Germans dumping money into it first. Eventually someone's going to tinker around with the things and, as governments realize their potential (not just nuclear weapons delivery, but artificial satellites), will invest in them.

It could change the Cold War a bit I'd imagine. If Russia is the one to pioneer the idea of the ballistic missile, it could make them seem even more scientifically awesome than IOTL.

 

[Bureaucromancer]

The delay in ICBM development is, imo, likely to be significant, but less than a decade. My guess is that you'll see SAM and air to air missile systems being the first created, but longer range and liquid fueled systems are a pretty obvious direction to go based on the success of systems like the Katyusha and the need for submarine launched systems. The immediete post war is probably going to see a pile of new long range cruise missiles, which has some interesting butterflies for the specifics of the equipment in use today, but ultimately someone is going to pay for a large liquid rocket which will inevitably be scaled into an icbm; from there strategic parity means the other side will almost certainly develop one too, and we've got ourselves some version of OTL's space race the moment the potential and practicality of satellites is shown, something that will DEFINITELY be done with the first ICBMs.

In fact a later introduction of the big rockets means more miniaturization and computerization is available when they come online, which probably means more can be done faster. Of course the rockets themselves are also liable to be smaller, so it might not mean a whole lot in terms of the manned space program, but satellite recon seems liable to come online even faster than OTL, with fewer years spent messing around with unusable resolutions and recovering physical film canisters.

All that said though, imo it boils down to some interesting tech butterflies, a lot of dates being changed but barring anything really surprising no obvious opportunity for dramatic shifts.

 

[SpaceGeek]

Since I'm largely a SpaceGeek and I'm more concerned with the Space Exploration aspect, here's what I would envision.

May 22nd 1946
First suborbital sounding rocket, with the launch of the WAC Corporal. The United States announces technicle and scientific victory for reaching Outer Space!

Between 1947 and the late 60s the Aerobee took over the role of the WAC Corporal as suborbital sounding rocket launching hundreds of times from White Sands New Mexico. By the early 1960s the Aerobee 350 was flying with a payload of 455 kg to 130 km altitude.

The USAF performs manned high altitude balloon flights during the 1950s and 1960s such as Project ManHigh and Project Excalibur. Something of a high altitude race develops between the USSR and US (a similer rivalry occured in the 1930s over high altitude balloons). By the late 1960s USAF pilots have gone well over 120,000 feet and even skydived from this hight.

The NACA remains a federal agency largely overseeing the advancement of new aircraft technology while the Army, USAF and Navy focus on ballistic missiles.

So by the very end of the 1960s? Orbital Satellites and perhaps Manned Suborbital spaceflight (basically Mercury-Redstone or something similer to Adam).

The begining of the 1970s is met with the explosion of satellites, Manned orbital spaceflight. Small lunar probes and perhaps Mars/Venus flyby probes.

It isn't untill we get into the 1980s do we see Jupiter or Saturn flybys. Manned Laboratories similer to MOL? or circumlunar? Attempts at unmanned Mars or Venus landings?

Through the 1950s 60s and 70s the Science fiction of the time is filled with stories of Intelligent life on Mars, Venus and the moons of the Outer Planets. This powefully effects pop culture.

 

[Michel Van]

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i try to answer, but the forum went down !

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i try to answer, but the forum went down second time !


the V2 was more a technology brake true as a useful weapon.
the stop on it's R&D program by Hitler in favor for (please insert name here) would delay ICBM development, but not Rocketry !
the Germans work on solid rockets like Rheinbote or Rheintöchter.
while American Goddard work on liquid fuel rockets
those will form the base for military rocket like Air-to-air missiles, SAM, RATO and rocket artillery.
but only in break true of advance Solid fuels would let this to first ICBM in 1961/62
also the begin of space age with launch of Satellite by ICBM in 1963

 

[Jukra]

My guess is that you'll see SAM and air to air missile systems being the first created, but longer range and liquid fueled systems are a pretty obvious direction to go based on the success of systems like the Katyusha and the need for submarine launched systems.

I'm not sure we would see that much development into liquid fuelled rockets if SAM's and various tactical missile systems would be the route which would be followed. Viable nuclear deterrent (in theory, at least) can be established by using bombers and cruise missiles. This would mean even more development money being funnelled to SAM's and AAM's, both of which practically require solid propellants.

By late 1950's someone would make the calculations about new solid propellant rockets and miniaturized H-bombs and thus development of solid fuelled ICBM's and SLBM's would begin and Minuteman and Polaris equivalents might reach operational status just about OTL.

 

[Bureaucromancer]

By late 1950's someone would make the calculations about new solid propellant rockets and miniaturized H-bombs and thus development of solid fuelled ICBM's and SLBM's would begin and Minuteman and Polaris equivalents might reach operational status just about OTL.

But even Minuteman and Polaris systems are reasonably viable launch vehicles. No you aren't going to be putting Mercury on top of one, but in terms of reconnaissance capability the loss of capability associated with being forced onto a smaller vehicle is marginal. By the time you get demands for bigger satellites it will be more reasonable to talk about a dedicated launch platform, and that is when liquids will probably start being talked about... I'm thinking something along the lines of a late Titan could easily emerge, with solid boosters being a big part of any picture.

On the manned spaceflight front I'd expect to see the X-15 more or less as OTL, and the logical continuations of it to continue. This could well be where liquid rocket development gets a real push TTL. OTL's X-15B was pretty dependent on a system unlikely to exist TTL, but something like the delta winged version, drop tanks and better heat shields could quite easily be going hypersonic, and if there's a push like OTL I could imagine an air dropped super X-15 reaching orbit by about the time of OTL's moon landings.

 

[TFSmith121]

Robert Goddard, Karel Brossart, John von Neumann

Robert Goddard, Karel Brossart, John von Neumann, Theodore Von Karman, Frank Malina, Fritz Zwicky, Martin Summerfield, Dan Kimball, H.S. Tsien, Milt Rosen, Bob Truax, etc etc.

Between GALCIT, ORDCIT, Reaction Motors, the NRL, and the AMC, there was more than enough capability in the US to achieve everything the historical US space program(s) (NRO, NACA, NASA, DoD, etc.) on the same or a better timeline, absent ANY of the Peenemunde crew or their technology...

The problem, of course, is funding...

But given Manhattan Project levels of funding from 1942 onward, and a single integrated delivery vehicle and payload program, and the US could have achieved LEO on "native" technology in the 1940s.

Best,

 

[nixonshead]

Interesting idea. Some first thought are:

> Potentially a slightly longer and more bloody WWII, as the huge resources wasted on V-2 IOTL would presumably have gone to more conventional and practical armaments. Alternatively, maybe they would have all got sucked into Germany's nuclear program, though it probably wouldn't have been enough to develop a bomb.

> US were already developing small rockets, so that would probably continue, but delayed as suggested above. Maybe more of a chance for the X-planes to reach near space first, and they'd be the wave of the future instead of ballistic rockets.

> The USSR rocket specialists apparently considered a liquid engine as powerful as V-2s to be pretty much impossible, until they saw it for themselves. So a considerable delay on the Soviet side as less resource would have been put into this 'blind ally', probably with more focus going to jet engined bombers as a nuclear platform. At least until the US start demonstrating otherwise.

 

[SpaceGeek]

So basically something like this?

1960s
X-15 rocketplane builds up higher and higher speeds along with higher and higher altitudes. The begining of the decade still sees the first person in Space but only on a suborbital flight (Perhaps, Neil Armstrong?).

Through the 1960s the rocketplane flies many high speed, high altitude and some suborbital missions. X-15's performance is uprated throughou the decades. By the mid 60s it has reached Mach 10 (perhaps by using the XB-70). By the begining of the 70s or late 60s a derivitive of the X-15 makes the first orbital flight.

Satellites also exist from the early 60s onward but are small in size

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

So basically something like this?

1960s
X-15 rocketplane builds up higher and higher speeds along with higher and higher altitudes. The begining of the decade still sees the first person in Space but only on a suborbital flight (Perhaps, Neil Armstrong?).

Through the 1960s the rocketplane flies many high speed, high altitude and some suborbital missions. X-15's performance is uprated throughou the decades. By the mid 60s it has reached Mach 10 (perhaps by using the XB-70). By the begining of the 70s or late 60s a derivitive of the X-15 makes the first orbital flight.

Satellites also exist from the early 60s onward but are small in size

No. The X15 was a great plane. But useless as a spacecraft. It was way too small, had too high a mass, insufficient isp, etc. Also, it would have burned up on reentry if it had tried. Note that the one otl concept for an orbital x15 treated it as a very heavy and expensive capsule - with a heatshield to protect the machine. And then having the astronaut bail out and abandon the craft!!

 

[corditeman]

The Fi 103/V-1 is the gainer...

V-1 cost £ 300 in 1943, V-2 cost £ 15,000 in 1943.

The implications for German industry are that the V-1 could have been in action far earlier, with a greater number of missiles and maybe a less complex launch system. London could have been devastated if the Germans had gone for a mix of High Explosive warheads, and cluster warheads holding Incendiary submunitions and Anti-Personnel submunitions. In other words, high explosive to shatter buildings, incendiary cluster bombs to fire the buildings and butterfly bombs to stop firefighting/rescue/dislocate movement.

The diversion of resources to the V-2 was a disaster for jet fighter and bomber development as well, whilst the diversion of liquid oxygen hampered steel production.

Dornberger and Von Braun deserved medals from the Allies for their waste of the Reich's resources.

 

[MUC]

Later ICBMs mean we get the XB-70 operational?