WI: No US resupply airlift during the Yom Kippur War?

Suppose that during the Yom Kippur War, when the United States was mounting a resupply airlift, Portugal and the Netherlands, the only European countries that allowed US aircraft to use their territory to refuel, did not? As a result, US aircraft are incapable of reaching Israel. Though a sealift is possible, it would take much, much longer to implement, and the war could already be over by the time the ships start docking. Nixon tells Golda over the phone "We're sorry, but there's nothing we can do to immediately resupply you".

So what happens? How does the war go?
 
Then the Egyptians and their allies start taking Israeli cities and engage in street to street fighting until they can get to Jerusalem and sac the government. That would have taken much longer. I can still see the US being able to send some weapons via the Mediterranean, but possibly the US allowing Israel to be compromised to the Arabs. Nixon had little support for his military missions by then and Congress would not have supported greater intervention during the Vietnam War. There would be a free Palestine with lots Jews living in it today.
 

Yonatan

Banned
Oh for crying out loud, 90% of Nickle Grass only arrived after the war was over, it would not result in frickin nukes flying. the war likely goes very much like OTL, except Israel will be a little more desperate, but it will still end roughly like OTL. at worst you can drag it a couple days more. you are not seeing Egyptian tanks rolling in Tel Aviv.
 
Oh for crying out loud, 90% of Nickle Grass only arrived after the war was over, it would not result in frickin nukes flying. the war likely goes very much like OTL, except Israel will be a little more desperate, but it will still end roughly like OTL. at worst you can drag it a couple days more. you are not seeing Egyptian tanks rolling in Tel Aviv.

I agree with you that the IDF had the capabilities to do everything it did without a US airlift, but the question is whether the political leadership would have approved the drive into Egypt without any firm guarantees of resupply.

Also, a big effect of Nickel Grass was to give the US enough leverage with Israel to pressure it against destroying the Egyptian 3rd Army. Given that Israel would be under pressure to end the war quickly, and since the US has no leverage, I believe that had Israeli leaders chosen to cross the canal without the US airlift, the IDF may have annihilated the Egyptian 3rd Army.
 
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I agree; the result might have been a much more ambiguous victory (despite Israel's back being against the wall in the middle of the war, by the end there were tanks within spitting distance of Cairo and Damascus). Maybe this leads to a post-ceasefire Egypt being less willing to negotiate for a peace treaty?
 
I agree; the result might have been a much more ambiguous victory (despite Israel's back being against the wall in the middle of the war, by the end there were tanks within spitting distance of Cairo and Damascus). Maybe this leads to a post-ceasefire Egypt being less willing to negotiate for a peace treaty?

Au contraire, it might make it even more desperate. The war left both Israel and Egypt convinced that there was no alternative to a negotiated settlement. Israel was stunned by its early battlefield failures, while Egypt recognized that it was defeated in the end despite all its improvements. An even greater defeat would have only reinforced Egypt's doubts that it could ever beat Israel, while Israel would still be shocked by its early defeats despite the complete destruction of an entire Egyptian army.

However, I wonder whether the people would have been willing to allow negotiations after another humiliating defeat. Perhaps the early victories would have done something to allow them to at least stand up with some pride, and Egyptian government propaganda could focus heavily on those glorious early days, rather than what happened later.
 
About 96% of Nickle Grass was shipped to Israel. First ships arrived a couple days after the ceasefire. The 4% that were airlifted did not arrive during the war, only starting on the 14th, and arrived well after the war as well. Other then the morale boost (the picture of the M60 Patton unloaded from the C-5 was impressive, even if it was a deception and 20 minutes later it was reloaded on the plane and returned home), it had very little impact on the war. By the 14th Egypt had already lost the war. It had lost it on the first day. Syria on the second. Most of the stuff that was airlifted was not used to effect, like LAW/TOW AT weapons, for a number of reasons. The only exeption is the fighter jets that were used to some effect during the closing stages of the war (~4% of all mission runs were done with fighters that arrived during Nickle Grass).

There will be no nuking.
There will be no Arab victory.
There will be no downsized Israeli achievements.

Some questions though:

1) If no airlift, is the US also not having a showdown with the Soviets? As in, it will not threat to send the 82nd if Soviet troops start arriving at Syria and Egypt?
2) Will the US still pressure Israel not to destroy the 3rd army?
3) Will the US still pass the emergency budget to pay for part of Nickle Grass, or will Israel get only the portion it paid for?
 
Clint, regardless of whether the US would have almost no leverage, as it would have not helped Israel win the war, and the US did not supply any form of direct military assistance to Israel until 1974 in OTL. So it'sh highly questionable at the very least that Israel would have bowed to US demands and allowed the 3rd Army to survive.
 
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