WI No US-China Rapprochement

What if no US President went to China prior to Mao's death in 1976? First, how would that affect succession of PRC leadership? Following this, what are the prospects for China and the relationship with America?
 
First think that occurrs to me is that you don't have the explosion in the US China trade. Less economic growth for China.

Course that trade probably goes somewhere else.

More Mexican growth? Or the Philipines?
 
So any thoughts on effects other than trade? Like on the larger Cold War?

CONSOLIDATION: Depending on how much of an explosion of China trade happened in the OTL 1970's, that's a good point. Is it also possible the US just sees less foreign trade overall in this period?
 
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So any thoughts on effects other than trade? Like on the larger Cold War?

Not sure how it would affect Chinese leadership, but a Nixon administration that is more hard-line against Mao would probably lead to generally more Soviet than Chinese influence in SE Asia after this. Pol Pot, for example, was supported openly by China and rather less-openly by Jimmy Carter--anything to hit the Russians hard. If the US is withdrawing from Vietnam on time and Red China is not an ally, Pol Pot may be removed from power by Soviet agents.

There would be far less Chinese influence in Africa after this. More Soviet-aligned states, most likely.

Taiwan would probably hold its seat in the UN indefinitely. Without Nixon setting the precedent for American-Chinese cooperation, I don't think even Brzezinski would be able to sway Carter to back the PRC to any visible degree. Reagan would probably see Red China as continuing the Maoist-Stalinist tradition and thus not open diplomatic relations with them either.
 
If Mao dies before rapprochement with the US, how much is said breakthrough likely delayed? I'd think his immediate successors, whoever they're likely to be, would have to wait before touching the subject...
 
To make this happen, you may have to somehow butterfly Nixon's presidency, which I don't know how it will happen.

That's actually what I had in mind -- not to get off topic, since I want this to be more about the effects than the "how", but I was thinking RFK wins in 68, but loses to Reagan in 72...
 
Another POD-Henry Kissinger is fired in 1971 over the wiretapping of the WH staff and others because of the leaking of the secret bombing of Cambodia. This means no China trip for Nixon. Comments?
 
The problem here is that the international trend was to recognize the PRC over Taiwan. I doubt any mainstream American President (besides Scoop Jackson) wouldn't open up a dialogue with Beijing at some point in the early '70s.
 
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