WI: No Union of South Africa

Alright, so let's say that in 1910 for whatever reason, perhaps disagreements between the colonies or Britain simply not wanting for them to
unify the Union of South Africa is never established.

So, assuming that the Cape Colony, Natal, Transvaal and Orange Free State remain separate, how do they develop over time, how does
South Africa itself develop with multiple nations, two of which would likely be majority white?
 
Within the Cape province, people of mixed black and white heritage had the right to vote. I'd say apartheid would still arise, but only in the former Boor republics.
 

kenmac

Banned
Within the Cape province, people of mixed black and white heritage had the right to vote. I'd say apartheid would still arise, but only in the former Boor republics.

The British form of racial exclusion in South Africa was more suttle and clever.
Much like Rhodesia Blacks and Coloureds could only vote if they held so much land.
However legislation was banned to prevent land ownership by Blacks and Coloureds to a large extent.
Segragation was firmly in place before the Apartheid era.

Now if there is no Union of South Africa and thus no English-South African opposition to the Afrikaner National Party but instead British descended Rhodesian Front style governments in Natal and the Cape I can see Rhodesia, Natal, the Cape, Transvaal and the Orange Free State all lasting much longer as White Supremacist regimes.
 
Let's remember a few points when we talk about apartheid in these territories. The Cape Province's black population was small until the 1970s and 1980s, when blacks started migrating there looking for work. The Cape in this scenario would probably have a white plurality, with mixed-race/colored people being much of the rest. This would make apartheid pretty much irrelevant, because there is so few black people.

Natal is the one in big trouble. You got two of the biggest tribes in Africa (Zulu and Xhosa) there, and then you also have the Indian population. The result there is a tinderbox waiting to go off, because the territory's population would be overwhelmingly against the white rulers, and if Natal is on its own, that means much of the wealth of South Africa's awesomely mineral-rich interior doesn't make it out.

The Free State and the Transvaal have the vast riches, but the British will still want to have them for themselves, though the Afrikaners will still want their share of the pie and they will undoubtedly get it eventually. They will be outnumbered by the tribes in that part of South Africa, too, and the diamond mines, don't forget, are mostly in the Cape Province.

A union between all of them would be pretty much inevitable, if for no other reason than to save Natal from becoming a war zone. Plus, we all know that Britain was always very happy to do arbitrary integrations of colonies into larger countries, and they did just that with Rhodesia, among others.
 
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