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In such an ATL where Mongolia and Tannu Tuva remain a nominal part of the Chinese Republic, regardless of what ethnicity the local power holder warlords are, what are the geopolitical effects?

In the 1930s, would the Japanese keep pushing their influence westward out from Manchuria into outer Mongolia, possibly occupying Urga (the pre-communist name of Ulan Bator)and other central and western portions of Mongolia before even turning on China south of the Great Wall?

And this gets a little ahead of things - Would the continuation of Mongolia in a Chinese Republican milieu rather than a Boleshevik milieu alter Chinese warlord or Chinese civil war politics in any significant way, and perhaps forestall the Japanese occupation of Manchuria as a knock-on or butterfly effect?
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