WI no Ungern-Sternberg takeover of Mongolia, and no Russian Red Army subsequent pursuit?

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
In such an ATL where Mongolia and Tannu Tuva remain a nominal part of the Chinese Republic, regardless of what ethnicity the local power holder warlords are, what are the geopolitical effects?

In the 1930s, would the Japanese keep pushing their influence westward out from Manchuria into outer Mongolia, possibly occupying Urga (the pre-communist name of Ulan Bator)and other central and western portions of Mongolia before even turning on China south of the Great Wall?

And this gets a little ahead of things - Would the continuation of Mongolia in a Chinese Republican milieu rather than a Boleshevik milieu alter Chinese warlord or Chinese civil war politics in any significant way, and perhaps forestall the Japanese occupation of Manchuria as a knock-on or butterfly effect?
 
Last edited:
I specialize a little bit in this topic, somewhat for what it's worth, so if I'm long winded or unclear about this I'm sorry. Russia always wanted to see Outer Mongolia which is modern day Mongolia break way from China which they did in 1911, it would continue with the Soviets considering they acted the same way with the Chinese Eastern Railway. If there is no White takeover then the Communists won't do jack in Mongolia aside from support the rebels against China, although this means that the Chinese would have been able to stop Ungern-Sternberg in the first place, or they are stopped.

Without a Communist Mongolia, you see as a much poorer Mongolia since it wasn't built up by the Soviets, but it also deprives the USSR of largely it's cattle resources they built up. I'd assume the Mongolia would always look Russia/Soviet Union as the guarantor of their freedom as in OTL, although Japan could also be a possible ally hell if tensions spiral out of control as in OTL Mongolia could look to take back Inner Mongolia. They are NOT going to accept Chinese rule at all, relations soured when the Qing changed the status quo, they broke from the Qing when things got bad enough and even courted the Russians for aid. I'd highly doubt the ability of a Chinese state to be able to exert control over Mongolia, at least as long it's still in turmoil.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
"If there is no White takeover then the Communists won't do jack in Mongolia aside from support the rebels against China"

What's the political coloration of these "rebels"

So even without Sternberg ever taking over, a separate Outer Mongolian state is already inevitable, even if the Chinese and others refuse to recognize it.

This state would always rely on the USSR for protection against China. However, the lack of a Sternberg occupation means that Mongolia will be unlikely to be communist internally even while allied with the Soviets externally.

The most intriguing option however is the Outer Mongolians trying to ally with Japan. I wonder if Outer Mongolia could align with Japan without this leading to a Soviet-Japanese war in fairly short order.
 
All right I'll try to answer this as best as I can. The rebles at the time were disgruntled Mongolian Nobles politically I would at least see them before an independent Mongolia anything else I admit I don't know.

I wouldn't really call it inevitable but if the Communists do take power in Russia but don't take over Mongolia there is a chance for Mongolia to actually be recognized much earlier on. Although it all depends on whether or not the Chinese could get their act together to exert any influence over Mongolia.

There wouldn't be an alliance per se like with Communist Mongolia and the Soviet Union. However the Soviet Union,s attitude towards the far east which essentially the Russian Empire is but with a different change management so they're going to want to keep Mongolia independent and friendly. Hell the Soviets basically established a government run by theocratic monarchy at first in Mongolia.

A Soviet-Japanese war, really depends on how the Soviet Union develops. If we are assuming an isolationist Soviet Union then they might see Mongolia as Xinjiang, a buffer state that even if it may have communist sympathies don't want them a part of the union, there resources are good enough.

The Soviets would have to worry in the event of a war of having the Trans Siberian Railway cut off since Mongolia isn't a buffer state. Yet on the other hand were with Japan would be a very risky prospect that it might not be worth it. Perhaps instead of letting Japan take full control of the Chinese Eastern Railway the Soviets negotiate for it just to alleave tensions between the two.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
A Soviet-Japanese war, really depends on how the Soviet Union develops. If we are assuming an isolationist Soviet Union then they might see Mongolia as Xinjiang, a buffer state that even if it may have communist sympathies don't want them a part of the union, there resources are good enough.

The Soviets would have to worry in the event of a war of having the Trans Siberian Railway cut off since Mongolia isn't a buffer state. Yet on the other hand were with Japan would be a very risky prospect that it might not be worth it.

I think a Japanese penetration into Outer Mongolia could be fascinating, whether the Russians made a strong reaction or not. If Japan is exercising serious influence throughout Mongolia, it could use that as a platform to spread subversion to Xinjiang and northwest China, ultimately invading it on an even broader front than OTL.


Perhaps instead of letting Japan take full control of the Chinese Eastern Railway the Soviets negotiate for it just to alleave tensions between the two.

How would the Soviets be trying to alter things compared to the OTL status quo, and what leverage would they a) have available to them and b) be willing to use?
 
I think a Japanese penetration into Outer Mongolia could be fascinating, whether the Russians made a strong reaction or not. If Japan is exercising serious influence throughout Mongolia, it could use that as a platform to spread subversion to Xinjiang and northwest China, ultimately invading it on an even broader front than OTL.




How would the Soviets be trying to alter things compared to the OTL status quo, and what leverage would they a) have available to them and b) be willing to use?

That means would have to invest in developing Outer Mongolia like the Soviets did. The Thing the only leader who didn't die 3-4 years after the Revolution was the Bogd Khan who wanted to see an independent Mongolia free of foreign influences even Tibetian, he did have a son but no name is given, although considering his position was theocratic and followed Tibetian Buddhism it wouldn't be a conventional Monarchy. Although if he lives longer he would be more willing to have a neutral Mongolia then one that would have to take sides.

In OTL, the Japanese never did anything about the Chinese Eastern Railway when Japan had invaded Manchuria, so they basically gave full control of the railway to Japan. The most the Soviets do to keep is negotiate it, the only problem is the Soviets need to treat the Japanese as equals, if they do what did with the Chinese and basically shut them of the decision-making process then it's going to lead to a war like it did between the Soviets in 1929.
 
Last edited:
Yay! A Mongolian WI. Just in time for the elections as well....

I personally could still see Sukhbataar leading a Socialist revolution, though undoubtedly it would have less Communist influence with no Ungern-Sternberg. He and the other educated officers were going to make a play for power at some point. It could have been rather cool to see constitutional clerical socialism, with the Jebtsundamba Khutuktu as titular head of state.

The Mongolians, no matter which faction, are not going to see a return to Chinese rule. I could definitely see them aligning with Japan though; perhaps Inner Mongolia could be reunited to Outer Mongolia, something which would give this state another million Mongols and significantly stronger industrial and agricultural resources.

Hopefully in this ATL the lamas would not be systematically murdered and the vast majority of monasteries destroyed. Without Ungern-Sternberg, the Chinese, Jewish, and sundry Russian subject races would have survived in Urga as well (which presumably would not be named Ulaanbaatar).
 
Top