WI: No Truman Doctrine?

In 1947, Greece and Turkey were fighting against Soviet Union-sponsored Communist insurgencies. Greece had been receiving aid from the UK, however, the UK was set to soon cut off this aid - this could spell doom for the Greek government, and Turkey looked as though it could soon turn red as well.

In response to this, President Truman passed the Truman Doctrine, a document designed to fight communism in Europe. This is widely considered the start of the Cold War, with 400 million dollars in aid being directed towards the Greek and Turkish governments, resulting in the defeat of Communist forces.

Now, what would happen if the Truman Doctrine, for whatever reason, was not passed? Would Greece and Turkey fall to Communism? If so, what effect would this have on Cold War geopolitics?
 
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First off, you need President Wallace or President Byrnes. Both of them were more pro-Soviet than Truman (all three started 1945 being equally pro-Soviet, but Truman woke up quickly. Byrnes and Wallace didn't until years later).

Greece could go Communist, Turkey probably won't. Earlier Red Scare and President Dewey 1948. A Democrat will win in 1952 if the Korean War still happens on schedule. Isolationism won't last long, and the US might feel more besieged than OTL, which could turn ugly.
 
The Soviets wanted "basing rights" in the Dardenelles. I don't think they were necessarily trying to impose a Communist government on all of Turkey, especially since Turkey's capital was in Ankara.

But trying to carve out a Soviet Hong Kong around Istanbul is something else entirely.
 
First off, you need President Wallace or President Byrnes. Both of them were more pro-Soviet than Truman (all three started 1945 being equally pro-Soviet, but Truman woke up quickly. Byrnes and Wallace didn't until years later).

Greece could go Communist, Turkey probably won't. Earlier Red Scare and President Dewey 1948. A Democrat will win in 1952 if the Korean War still happens on schedule. Isolationism won't last long, and the US might feel more besieged than OTL, which could turn ugly.

Hrm. Could a communist Greece perhaps result in Turkey feeling threatened enough to declare war? It's pretty far out there, but perhaps this could result in the entire WP ganging up on Turkey "in the defense of Communism", and our for-now-isolationalist USA probably wouldn't do much beyond condemning the actions of the Soviet Union.
 
Hrm. Could a communist Greece perhaps result in Turkey feeling threatened enough to declare war? It's pretty far out there, but perhaps this could result in the entire WP ganging up on Turkey "in the defense of Communism", and our for-now-isolationalist USA probably wouldn't do much beyond condemning the actions of the Soviet Union.

No, that couldn't happen. The Turkish leadership weren't stupid. They definitely aren't dumb enough to declare war on the SU. They don't have the offensive capability, and despite some hilly terrain, they'll still get their asses handed to them quick. And Istanbul will fall VERY quickly to Bulgarian and Soviet forces. The WP would gang-up on Turkey, but wouldn't send many forces, since they don't have many immediatly following WWII. Their participation isn't necessary for victory. The USA can't really condemn the Russians if the Turks attack them. But I can imagine that even without Truman, a "the buck stops here" attitude would develop after Turkey and Greece go red.
 
If Greece goes red, couldn't they go after Istanbul on their own?

They wouldn't SAY it was for nationalistic or even religious reasons, but those would be there subliminally.

I'm thinking about "freeing the Dardanelles for socialism" or something like that.
 
Huh? Nothing in Communist thought says that. Communists can't just attack anyone else all the time using ideology as a casus belli. But I guess if they did (maybe some very nationalistic figure in ELAS, although I can't see someone like that getting on with Stalin) it would have to be with Soviet permission. And the Soviets would have to help out. Greece would need to rebuild it's partisan forces into a regular army before its possible.
 
Huh? Nothing in Communist thought says that. Communists can't just attack anyone else all the time using ideology as a casus belli. But I guess if they did (maybe some very nationalistic figure in ELAS, although I can't see someone like that getting on with Stalin) it would have to be with Soviet permission. And the Soviets would have to help out. Greece would need to rebuild it's partisan forces into a regular army before its possible.

I give you the Korean War, which some new evidence suggests was started by Kim-Il-Sung and only later supported by Stalin.

And Communism is explicitly anti-religious and anti-nationalist, correct? Someone who is a Communist is not going to explicitly say they want Constantinople because they're pissed Hagia Sofia is now a mosque and it was the capital of the Greek-dominated Byzantine Empire, at least not openly.

And Soviet apologists have actually defended the postwar Soviet attempts to grab Constantinople using such charming arguments as WWII having shown "the danger of fascist sea power."
 
Arguably Greece would not fall regardless given the likelihood of an inevitable Soviet-Yugoslav split once Stalin realized Tito was never going to be his puppet and overestimates as per OTL his ability to control his satellites. Now as to Turkey, I couldn't say one way or the other.
 
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