WI: No Tornado MRCA

Multinational projects are always liable to fail. The MRCA was a success, and the German, Italian and British Air Forces got an advanced strike aircraft that the RAF turned into a long Range interceptor. But what would have happened if the MRCA had gone the way of the MBT70?
Would the Air Forces involved have bought other aircraft? Updated old ones? Would the Eurofighter project been killed?
Would the Mirage 4000 been an option?
Here a possible outcome:
The Germans eventualy replace their F104G and F4F with F15E
The RAF upgrades the Bucc and the Lightning, buys more used Phantoms, and develops a British Typhoon at an erlier date.
The Italians build more AMX and buy F16s
The Eurofighter is stillborn
The Mirage 4000 still fails
 
Whither the European Aircraft Companies?

Multinational projects are always liable to fail. The MRCA was a success, and the German, Italian and British Air Forces got an advanced strike aircraft that the RAF turned into a long Range interceptor. But what would have happened if the MRCA had gone the way of the MBT70?
Would the Air Forces involved have bought other aircraft? Updated old ones? Would the Eurofighter project been killed?
Would the Mirage 4000 been an option?
Here a possible outcome:
The Germans eventualy replace their F104G and F4F with F15E
The RAF upgrades the Bucc and the Lightning, buys more used Phantoms, and develops a British Typhoon at an erlier date.
The Italians build more AMX and buy F16s
The Eurofighter is stillborn
The Mirage 4000 still fails

The various West European governments would still see it as their duty to support their national aircraft industries even if this particular program failed. National pride and interest would not allow them to not do nothing, it would be the end of what little was left of those industries.

Insisting on local production of whatever US aircraft they buy would be a minimum stopgap measure. A series of national aircraft projects, not necessarily military would still be pushed ahead. Someone in Britain would be bound to point out that "...the RAF would still prefer TSR-2" a quote I remember from Air International magazine at the time. Damn unlikely to happen of course...

When did Airbus start, and what effect would the collapse of MRCA have on it, if any? Would the resources be thrown in to make it bigger and better just to give national companies something to do, or would it damaged by the aftershocks of the collapse?
 
I seem to recall that some British experts were espousing the efficacy of the GD F-111 before the development problems and spiralling cost became evident. The eventual purchase of the F-15E seems likely if they can figure out how to install Olympus engines. The Jaguar would soldier on. The Buccaneer and Lightning cannot be up-graded into anything they aren't already. Both are configurationally limited. The British military aircraft industry would finally fulfill the 1957 prophecy and cease to exist. Would Dassault take on co-production of Mirage 4000 with Germany and Italy? Hard to imagine. The Rolls Royce/ Turbo Union engine would become an orphan. What would carry the JP233? Perhaps it would be time to up-grade the Vulcan.
 
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