WI: No Timur?

Timur, or Tamerlane, was a highly important character in European, Asian, and Old World history, establishing a new empire that greatly influenced the area, being the last truly great steppe empire, although future ones would exist, they got increasingly outgunned by sedentary opponents, though they would remain a formidable threat. Early in his life, he and a small band of followers frequently raided the surrounding countryside. What if he was killed early on as a raider? How would this impact the Ottomans, without the interregnum? The Mughals are butterflied away, since they claimed descent from him, what impact does that have on India? What are the effects on Persia, and on Europe? How does this affect the Old World as a whole. What happens to Samarkand?
 
What I can tell you about the Ottomans...

Bayezid I is not captured and remains Sultan, probably until the 1420s. He goes on a conquest spree in Anatolia and deeper into Greece. Constantinople falls in the early 15th century rather than the 1450s. The downside is the Army will not be reorganized as such because the defeat in Ankara offered a change in the army structure (more infantry, less dependent on Turkmen Cavalry from Anatolian tribes). Not too big of a problem. A less catastrophic defeat in field can offer the same results, although later. You basically have what Mehmed II had in 1459 in 1419, 40 years earlier. Europe has a bigger problem with Bayezid I going on a rampage in the Balkans. With bigger problem I mean later on, Bayezid cannot conquer more than the Balkans in Europe, in the best case scenario possible for the Ottomans. And with the Balkans I highly doubt the entire thing.

With regards to the others. I expect Persia to remain divided until one major Turkmen Tribe like the Qara Qoyunlu run over the smaller states in Persia. Whatever happens to Samarkand... Well that depends on who rules Samarkand with the absence of Timur. The Chagatai? Independent Uzbek Emirs? Because it can go from a wealthy city to an unimportant town in Central Asia, facing constant raids by Tatars, Uzbeks and Mongols. Too hard to tell.

In India the Pashtun Tribes will take over the vacuum that will never be filled by the Mughals. The Afghans became more and more important in India and the Delhi Sultanate was in a sorry state even without Timur raiding Delhi. Some Afghan Dynasty will likely depose the Delhi Sultans by the 1450s or later. It could be a continuation of the Delhi Sultanate or it could become an analogue of the Mughal Empire.
 
What I can tell you about the Ottomans...

Bayezid I is not captured and remains Sultan, probably until the 1420s. He goes on a conquest spree in Anatolia and deeper into Greece. Constantinople falls in the early 15th century rather than the 1450s. The downside is the Army will not be reorganized as such because the defeat in Ankara offered a change in the army structure (more infantry, less dependent on Turkmen Cavalry from Anatolian tribes). Not too big of a problem. A less catastrophic defeat in field can offer the same results, although later. You basically have what Mehmed II had in 1459 in 1419, 40 years earlier. Europe has a bigger problem with Bayezid I going on a rampage in the Balkans. With bigger problem I mean later on, Bayezid cannot conquer more than the Balkans in Europe, in the best case scenario possible for the Ottomans. And with the Balkans I highly doubt the entire thing.

With regards to the others. I expect Persia to remain divided until one major Turkmen Tribe like the Qara Qoyunlu run over the smaller states in Persia. Whatever happens to Samarkand... Well that depends on who rules Samarkand with the absence of Timur. The Chagatai? Independent Uzbek Emirs? Because it can go from a wealthy city to an unimportant town in Central Asia, facing constant raids by Tatars, Uzbeks and Mongols. Too hard to tell.

In India the Pashtun Tribes will take over the vacuum that will never be filled by the Mughals. The Afghans became more and more important in India and the Delhi Sultanate was in a sorry state even without Timur raiding Delhi. Some Afghan Dynasty will likely depose the Delhi Sultans by the 1450s or later. It could be a continuation of the Delhi Sultanate or it could become an analogue of the Mughal Empire.
The GH has a better chance for survival (at least for a while).
 
Europe has a bigger problem with Bayezid I going on a rampage in the Balkans. With bigger problem I mean later on, Bayezid cannot conquer more than the Balkans in Europe, in the best case scenario possible for the Ottomans. And with the Balkans I highly doubt the entire thing.

Well, Bayezid's armies were enough to rout Sigismund of Luxembourg and his Hungarians + crusaders, so at least Hungary might have a significant trouble.
 
Well, it's not like Bayezid would know this, and also - Nicopolis is extremely close to Hungary, it's almost bordering it.
Segismund didn't bring most of his force and most of it was the french crusaders who where borderline idiotic as the king had more knowledge on how to deal with the ottoman yet they ignored all his commands and even then when the king entered the battle he nearly turned the battle around
 
Segismund didn't bring most of his force and most of it was the french crusaders who where borderline idiotic as the king had more knowledge on how to deal with the ottoman yet they ignored all his commands and even then when the king entered the battle he nearly turned the battle around

He did, Hungary at this time had strong opposition against Sig's very rule, he couldn't muster more.
 
The Golden Horde would hold together for another century, keeping Russia as it’s vassal. When it breaks apart it’s successor khanates will be wealthier as the hubs of the northern silk roads weren’t destroyed by Timur to boost the southern routes. This could slow later Russian expansion beyond Urals.
 
He did, Hungary at this time had strong opposition against Sig's very rule, he couldn't muster more.
Again most of the crusader troops where french sigmund recieved later on is his reing he would do better in the otl even from the victory form nicopolis to 1402 the ottoman didn't make any significant advance in to hungary despite segismund being kicked off and the country in crisis any real treath might and I think would have allowed sigsmund or a jonh hunyadi type to slow down the ottoman advance till hungary collapsed in to an anarchic mess
Which in This timeline would happen sooner do to move ottoman pressure
 
Georgia (as a region) was in a bad shape by the time of Mongolian conquest and even without Timur it would face the Ottoman and Persian aggression so its chances would not be good.

Didn't Timur invade it like eleven times or something? Seems like "No Timur" would definitively be an improvement.
 
Didn't Timur invade it like eleven times or something? Seems like "No Timur" would definitively be an improvement.
Pretty much anything (short of a complete genocide) would be improvement comparing to Timur but my point was that destruction. of the Heorgian state started much earlier with the invasion. of Khwaresm Shah Jelal ad Din.
 
Pretty much anything (short of a complete genocide) would be improvement comparing to Timur but my point was that destruction. of the Heorgian state started much earlier with the invasion. of Khwaresm Shah Jelal ad Din.

I could see Georgia becoming the Roman Armenia to Turkey and Persia, constantly flip-flopping between being a Turkish, then Persian, then back to Turkish vassal, or at least, until the Russians come knocking, & now the Georgians suddenly have a behemoth of an Orthodox brother just to their north.

But, a weaker Russia would give extra time to the southern peoples they crushed, perhaps some sort of Circassian Confederacy or the Caucasus Emirate may be able to hold the Russians back.
 
I could see Georgia becoming the Roman Armenia to Turkey and Persia, constantly flip-flopping between being a Turkish, then Persian, then back to Turkish vassal, or at least, until the Russians come knocking, & now the Georgians suddenly have a behemoth of an Orthodox brother just to their north.

But, a weaker Russia would give extra time to the southern peoples they crushed, perhaps some sort of Circassian Confederacy or the Caucasus Emirate may be able to hold the Russians back.
Georgia as a region was populated by the wide variety of the nationalities and in OTL not all of them had been excited about being annexed by the Big Brother. Not all these people had been Orthodox (for example in mid-XVIII on the Persia-controlled territories quite a few aristocrats converted into Islam), Russia did not have adequate forces for the quick conquest of the Ottoman and Persian vassal territories so switching too early was risky and quite a few local rulers (there were 3 kingdoms and countless smaller entities) preferred status quo because under it they had more freedom than they could d pectoral under Russia.

Now, if we assume that no Timur means survival of the GH all the way to the modern times then the regional situation would be so different that conquest of the Caucasus may not even be o. the Russian list of the priorities. If, OTOH, we assume that absence of Timur just postponed integration of the Russian territories around Moscow by few decades or even a century, then conquest of the Caucasus is most probably happens, even if somewhat delayed and no local confederation or state can change it because, short of the intervention of the friendly Martians, they would be too far behind technologically and in the terms of the state and military organization to resist much more than they did in OTL.
 
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