What if Varrus doesn't trust Arminius quite as much as he does OTL and as such doesn't follow him into the trap in Teutoburg Forest? Could the Romans pacify Magna Germania? If not how long would the Romans remain in Germania?
WI: No Teutouburg Forest?
- Thread starter ThatOneGuy
- Start date
When we say Germania, we're talking of regions with a lot of differences, would it be culturally, ethnographically, or economically wise. Contrary to Gaul which was pretty much structured into long-standing confederations and regional assemblies, Germania was what could be considered a "borderless" region would it be inner or outer limits : the decline of Rhineland and Upper Danubian complex chiefdoms and primitive states, partly due to the Roman conquest of Gaul really accelerated changes among Celto-Germans and Germans of the region and the constant influence of Rome, and its interventionism, made things less stable.
Thing is, Germania was relatively undeveloped, except (and even there...) at its western margins : the conquest of Germania as a whole was about conquering a mostly underpopulated, underdeveloped and roughly not that interesting region. Britain and Dacia at least benefited, on this regard, to provide more structural ground.
It doesn't mean at the latest that you won't see Rome advancing beyond the Rhine, and they proved IOTL to be interested doing just this. The problem might more how far they would be able and willing to go : a limes put to the Elbe is often referred but I think it's more of a cliché (partly based on the use of large rivers by Romans as european limes; partly out of space-filling empire tendencies). Even with no Teutoburg or a different Teutoburg, the general tendency of Roman presence in Germania wasn't really an unstoppable conquest, but a long and laborious takeover comparable to what happened in Britain later IOTL. So, I don't think the idea they "had" to reach Elbe would not only provide a strategical asset (it would certainly be more problematic logistically than Rhine, which also provided a much better protection) or that Romans would care just enough to do this. They would probably be content with Rhineland control IMO, associated with a strong enough influence from there.
In fact, Romans were more than able to enforce borders beyond rivers and basing themselves on smaller waters and relief : a good part of the Dacian and Moesian border was just this and even in the IVth in Pannonia, the creation of walled borders (while not the the point of Hadrian's Wall) was customary enough. Limes tended in Europe at least, to be mostly porous and even Rhine or Danube weren't regularily patrolled except in time of conflict.
As such, Romans eventually settling for the "useful" part of Germania wouldn't be surprising, as sort of a Decumate Fields on steroids.
Depending on how Romans do or not, it could have different appearance, but allow me to propose some rough scale.
Left : IOTL situation in the early IInd century / Middle : A "Low" expense scenario but more as a post-Augustean conquest IMO / Right : A "High" expension scenario during Augustus' reign.
Personally, I'd see anything between Middle and Right being plausible enough.
A system for forts and palisades supported along the Weser/Main region would be doable, as some sort of frontier outpost of a still pretty much reliable Rhineish system (if significantly weakened compared to IOTL). In the case where abandoning these transrhenan provinces would be considered necessary, as @Wolttaire proposes (although I don't think it would be made in a sole move personally), we'd have a Decumate Field situation without too much problems.
Of course, it's hard to have a clear idea Augustus expected, probably because the emperor and his generals probably didn't have a good idea either : I think it would stabilize with provincialisation of Rhineland, and the usual system of influence and clienteleship among Germanic chiefdoms beyond the province strictly speaking with the caveat I think it would be a relation comparable to what existed in IInd century Britain, meaning not something entirely distinguishable but more gradual (limes and forts being practically less of a defense mechanism, than pointing the political limits of Romania, as in northern Britain).
How long would it last? Well, it depends what Romans search there, and I don't think that the often mentioned mineral resources would be any help : Germans seems to have imported a lot of mettalurgic tools and weapons, and many of mines were exploited (if not discovered) in Middle-Ages. Farmland is probably a better opportunity, although Romans tended to have more of this than not enough but you could see a transrhenan German provincialisation in connection with the rest of Northern Gaul on this regard without too much problem (while probably, IMO, being a mix between the situation in Northern Gaul and Britain)
Eventually, I think I agree with @SlyDessertFox there, that such a conquest would be essentially politically motivated : another victory of Rome on the unknown and unsuspecting world now everyone can go back home because the landscape is fucking depressing. More seriously, it would never be considered as the jewel of Rome in its western provinces, probably a bit backyard, but still valued would it be for sentimental reasons. More than Dacia, IMO, that was conquered too recently to really feel like a huge loss.
It's still likely that you'd have a big wave of migrations ITTL in the IIIrd to VIth century would it be because of climatic changes from one hand, and the fact the existence of a large geopolitical monster tends to attract migrating peoples moving at its borders. But it could happen a bit differently. Now we know Germans didn't represented the main front to Romania (that would be Parthians and Sasanians) before the Vth century, and they were more really annoying opportunists that increased the issues to the point becoming an actual threat. As much as coalitions and confederations of peoples emerging from various groups on the limes happened IOTL (Goths or Heruli along the Danube, Alamans and Franks along the Rhine) you'd have groups and coalitions emerging from local populations and migrating groups forming new peoples that due to the geographical situation, could enter Romania more gradually and more easily integrated into Romania than what happened in the early Vth century (they did ended up doing so very quickly, would it be because of their pluricentennial relationship with Romania, but not without creating a massive political havoc) meaning the possibility of more loyal/integrated laeti and foedi as Toxandria's Franks, rather than Alamans.
So, while plausible, it's not even a given IMO that this transrhenan Germania would be wholly abandoned during a crisis, at least more gradually so.
How much does it tells about survival or transformation of Romania ITTL, with such an early PoD it's hard to say, really. But it might be interesting.
Thing is, Germania was relatively undeveloped, except (and even there...) at its western margins : the conquest of Germania as a whole was about conquering a mostly underpopulated, underdeveloped and roughly not that interesting region. Britain and Dacia at least benefited, on this regard, to provide more structural ground.
It doesn't mean at the latest that you won't see Rome advancing beyond the Rhine, and they proved IOTL to be interested doing just this. The problem might more how far they would be able and willing to go : a limes put to the Elbe is often referred but I think it's more of a cliché (partly based on the use of large rivers by Romans as european limes; partly out of space-filling empire tendencies). Even with no Teutoburg or a different Teutoburg, the general tendency of Roman presence in Germania wasn't really an unstoppable conquest, but a long and laborious takeover comparable to what happened in Britain later IOTL. So, I don't think the idea they "had" to reach Elbe would not only provide a strategical asset (it would certainly be more problematic logistically than Rhine, which also provided a much better protection) or that Romans would care just enough to do this. They would probably be content with Rhineland control IMO, associated with a strong enough influence from there.
In fact, Romans were more than able to enforce borders beyond rivers and basing themselves on smaller waters and relief : a good part of the Dacian and Moesian border was just this and even in the IVth in Pannonia, the creation of walled borders (while not the the point of Hadrian's Wall) was customary enough. Limes tended in Europe at least, to be mostly porous and even Rhine or Danube weren't regularily patrolled except in time of conflict.
As such, Romans eventually settling for the "useful" part of Germania wouldn't be surprising, as sort of a Decumate Fields on steroids.
Depending on how Romans do or not, it could have different appearance, but allow me to propose some rough scale.
Left : IOTL situation in the early IInd century / Middle : A "Low" expense scenario but more as a post-Augustean conquest IMO / Right : A "High" expension scenario during Augustus' reign.
Personally, I'd see anything between Middle and Right being plausible enough.
Of course, it's hard to have a clear idea Augustus expected, probably because the emperor and his generals probably didn't have a good idea either : I think it would stabilize with provincialisation of Rhineland, and the usual system of influence and clienteleship among Germanic chiefdoms beyond the province strictly speaking with the caveat I think it would be a relation comparable to what existed in IInd century Britain, meaning not something entirely distinguishable but more gradual (limes and forts being practically less of a defense mechanism, than pointing the political limits of Romania, as in northern Britain).
How long would it last? Well, it depends what Romans search there, and I don't think that the often mentioned mineral resources would be any help : Germans seems to have imported a lot of mettalurgic tools and weapons, and many of mines were exploited (if not discovered) in Middle-Ages. Farmland is probably a better opportunity, although Romans tended to have more of this than not enough but you could see a transrhenan German provincialisation in connection with the rest of Northern Gaul on this regard without too much problem (while probably, IMO, being a mix between the situation in Northern Gaul and Britain)
Eventually, I think I agree with @SlyDessertFox there, that such a conquest would be essentially politically motivated : another victory of Rome on the unknown and unsuspecting world now everyone can go back home because the landscape is fucking depressing. More seriously, it would never be considered as the jewel of Rome in its western provinces, probably a bit backyard, but still valued would it be for sentimental reasons. More than Dacia, IMO, that was conquered too recently to really feel like a huge loss.
It's still likely that you'd have a big wave of migrations ITTL in the IIIrd to VIth century would it be because of climatic changes from one hand, and the fact the existence of a large geopolitical monster tends to attract migrating peoples moving at its borders. But it could happen a bit differently. Now we know Germans didn't represented the main front to Romania (that would be Parthians and Sasanians) before the Vth century, and they were more really annoying opportunists that increased the issues to the point becoming an actual threat. As much as coalitions and confederations of peoples emerging from various groups on the limes happened IOTL (Goths or Heruli along the Danube, Alamans and Franks along the Rhine) you'd have groups and coalitions emerging from local populations and migrating groups forming new peoples that due to the geographical situation, could enter Romania more gradually and more easily integrated into Romania than what happened in the early Vth century (they did ended up doing so very quickly, would it be because of their pluricentennial relationship with Romania, but not without creating a massive political havoc) meaning the possibility of more loyal/integrated laeti and foedi as Toxandria's Franks, rather than Alamans.
So, while plausible, it's not even a given IMO that this transrhenan Germania would be wholly abandoned during a crisis, at least more gradually so.
How much does it tells about survival or transformation of Romania ITTL, with such an early PoD it's hard to say, really. But it might be interesting.