wi No Tet offensive

WI it were decided by the Communist leadership not to take this particular step.

One difference would be the South Vietnamese communists would be more powerful . Any overthrow would be less of a Northern takeover than in otl.

The other would be to make Eugene McCarthy's campaign much less effective and probably prevent RFK from running.

I think LBJ might have run. If he did there would have been no ambiguity in his wish to defeat tricky dicky. Some way or other the outragous machinations of the Nixon machine in wrecking Peace talks woudl have come out.

LBJ would be re-elected.

Given his health how long would he have lived?

What is the eventual result in Vietnam?
 
No Massive turn in public opinion that the war is unwinnable. You don't have images of the American Embassy under attack and Walter Cronkite going on the news saying America can't win.

You don't have that famous picture of the South Vietnamese officer shooting a Viet Cong Prisoner in the head.

Maybe the NVA breaks off its attack at Khe Sanh since they claimed it was a diversion for the Tet offensive.

The war probably drags on out in the jungle. The war no longer dominates the headlines just like Iraq and Afghanistan today as Americans loose interest. Johnson and maybe Nixon decide the Vietnamese can handle the war and decides to go ahead and turn the war over to the South Vietnamese. Perhaps we get our POWs back earlier and America stands down. Then the Viet Cong emerge again because they haven't been wiped out at Tet 1968 and the insurgency explodes.
 

TinyTartar

Banned
The Vietcong not being virtually wiped out would probably not be good for South Vietnam in the long term. However, the support of the US, which was so crucial to their existence, would be around longer.

The Vietcong were indeed on their way to outright destruction at the current pattern- they were losing control of sanctuaries and South Vietnamese forces were gaining control of the countryside. However, the long term problems of the NVA being able to move supplies through "neutral" countries still existed, and until that ended, there would be no satisfactory end to the war unless the US decided to decisively ally with the Chinese while devoting manpower to launch an invasion of the North and force Hanoi to terms.

But the borderline treasonous behavior of US media is likely averted and Johnson might stick around, and I think he could beat Nixon. You can't outsouthern Johnson when Wallace is going to run.
 
Tet was a major victory, and would have been treated as such if Westmoreland et al. made more cautious statements instead of being dismissive about concerns. He got what he wanted from the start, the major decisive battle that would break the Communists with massive firepower.

Instead of it being viewed as such, it was seen as a colossal catastrophic event because the public's perception was things were just mop-up at that point. However, without it would mean Westy would have to continue doing COIN which he was not suited for. The war might parallel Iraq, and just be a background event of a slow creep of casualties. Alternately, the VC might just end up becoming a minor threat like FARC that poses no existential threat to Saigon, and potentially evolve into narco-terrorists.
 
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