So let's say, in early March 2011, Obama and Clinton are advised that not only is the Assad regime is vulnerable to the Arab Spring, Syria itself would implode into a bloodbath where only cartoonishly evil Islamists could gain. It's therefore not in the interest of the US to see the Assad regime fall.
When the protests against Assad start, Obama privately tells Assad that, for domestic consumption only, he will verbally condemn Assad and impose a few token sanctions, but do nothing concrete to overthrow the Assad regime.
Obama also makes it clear to Erdogan that the US wants no part in regime change in Syria. Erdogan also calculates that an imploded Syria would cause trouble with the Kurdish people, so limits his involvement to verbally expressing disappointment and accepting a few thousand refugees.
As a result, the Syrian protests are brutally crushed, but Assad is in complete control by May 2011. For good measure, a few planeloads of weapons arrive from Moscow. It's a repeat of the 1982 uprising.
What happens next? The US is sure to be accused of bombing Libya but not Syria purely due to oil. Will the Saudis sense betrayal due to the US leaving an Iranian ally alone? Will Iran and Putin sense US weakness and exploit it?
When the protests against Assad start, Obama privately tells Assad that, for domestic consumption only, he will verbally condemn Assad and impose a few token sanctions, but do nothing concrete to overthrow the Assad regime.
Obama also makes it clear to Erdogan that the US wants no part in regime change in Syria. Erdogan also calculates that an imploded Syria would cause trouble with the Kurdish people, so limits his involvement to verbally expressing disappointment and accepting a few thousand refugees.
As a result, the Syrian protests are brutally crushed, but Assad is in complete control by May 2011. For good measure, a few planeloads of weapons arrive from Moscow. It's a repeat of the 1982 uprising.
What happens next? The US is sure to be accused of bombing Libya but not Syria purely due to oil. Will the Saudis sense betrayal due to the US leaving an Iranian ally alone? Will Iran and Putin sense US weakness and exploit it?