WI No Surrender at Pruth River Campaign

[Nassirisimo]

The Pruth River Campaign was one of the most successful conflicts that the Ottomans had against the Russians. The Ottomans had managed to defeat a Russian force headed by Tsar Peter the Great. However, the Ottomans allowed the Russian force to retreat after wringing a relatively light treaty from them with some minor territorial gains and other concessions.

However, this didn't really go down well in Constantinople, where there was outrage against the light terms the Russians had escaped with. The question is, what would have happened if the Ottomans saw an opportunity to crush the Russians for years to come and kept fighting? Could they indeed cripple the Russian army and kill/capture Peter the Great? How would this affect the Great Northern War? And in the long term, how would Russia develop in the aftermath of these events?

 

[sahaidak]

Some Russian historians maintain that the Ottoman forces, especially the Janissaries, were exhausted by fighting with Peter's army to the point of being on the brink of mutiny, forcing Grand Vizier Baltaci to seek peace with Peter, even though the tsar himself, unaware of the mood in the Ottoman camp, saw his situation as hopeless and was ready to offer everything in return for his army's safe retreat. There is a diplomatic instruction in Peter's handwriting, preserved in Russian archives and containing the words "I command you to agree to every Turkish demand short of slavery" (i.e., surrender.)

If Peter's assessment, and not the modern Russians', was the correct one, it means that Baltaci could destroy the tsar's army in 1711, while probably suffering heavy losses himself.

What would it mean for the Great Northern War? Well, Sweden was already crippled by 1711 and hardly able to repeat Charles XII's raids all over Eastern Europe. However, the Swedes might be able to stand their ground in Finland and even reconquer the Baltics. Ingria was probably already lost for good ifor Sweden n 1711, as any plausible post-Petrine Russian government would do their utmost to protect St. Petersburg, if only because of the immense investment already made in the project.

Fate of Ukraine is an interesting subplot ITTL, as the Left-bank Hetmanate, late Mazepa's country, was still reeling after Russian repressions of 1709, so Turkish support for anti-Russian elements there could bring a few more troubles for Russia, as it would be preoccupied with fending off Swedish counterattacks in the northern theater of war.

By extension, the post-Petrine Russia, having lost its best troops with Peter, would be even less able to intervene in Polish-Lithuanian affairs, possibly leaving the Commonwealth the prime target for Swedish, Turkish and German (Habsburg or Hohenzollern) aspirations.