WI: No stop at Varennes.

WI Louis XVI manages to flee France, and calls for a counterrevolution with Austrian help? And what if such coaltion fails?
 
I think things would go pretty much as in our timeline. The War of the First Coalition was already ongoing to contain if not overthrow revolutionary France by the middle of 1792 before Louis and family made their break for freedom, all that would really change I think would be that he'd have to make a quick exit from Austria to somewhere neutral out of their reach like Britain if the Coalition lost and there was a Treaty of Campo Formio. Things settle down to a hostile peace and then cue the War of the Second Coalition when they decide to have another go, and the Napoleonic Wars carry on from there.
 
But with no king, the Assembly would be forced to declare the French Republic (and wouldn't be overthrown).
 
A couple of sure consequence of a successful escape of the French Royal family are: 1) the Coaliton can present himself trying to restore the rightful King of France 2) a survival of the Bourbon dynasty (Louis Charles was a healthy boy and if he is not taken prisoner is very likely who he will marrey and have heirs)
 
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