WI: No Spanish Habsburgs
- Thread starter LeCHVCK
- Start date
Spain continues to pursue a Mediterranean and North Africa focus, probably maintaining reasonably good relations with most of Europe. As the Christian Monarchs the dynasty has a great deal to uphold and will probably have to continue their anti-Muslim policies across the Strait. The wealth of the Americas goes into fighting the Moors in North Africa and it's possible we'll see a Christian Morocco. It's such a major change though that you'll see major major butterflies across Europe. Without a Hapsburg Spain the map of Europe is going to look very different. A Spain in N. Africa is likely to draw the Ottomans into more European wars since France would then be a good ally for them against Spain.
Deleted member 67076
Spain won't bankrupt itself in pointless wars in Europe and might finally be able to focus on its colonies. We could see much more settlement in the New World if the restrictions upon settling were lifted. (Although I am not sure if these were the fault of the Habsburgs)
I wonder what this means for the Ottomans now that their major rivals have so much less resources now. Might Vienna fall? (this is of course assuming the Ottomans get unlucky and have to conquer Hungary instead of placing a puppet king)
I wonder what this means for the Ottomans now that their major rivals have so much less resources now. Might Vienna fall? (this is of course assuming the Ottomans get unlucky and have to conquer Hungary instead of placing a puppet king)
I doubt it, if anything their primary Land Rival will have far more resources. In addition, if the Ottomans still exert their influence along the North African Coast that will still bring them into conflict with Spain eventually.
Spain and Austria will probably still see each other as natural allies against France. France and Spain will still be enemies in Italy, and France and Austria will still be enemies in The Netherlands.
In all honesty the diplomatic situation will likely look really similar for the first few decades after the PoD. Then you get more interesting butterflies like is there a Dutch Revolt, how does a purely Imperial Habsburg Dynasty handle the Reformation, do France and Spain reach an accord earlier.
But the Ottomans now have to deal with a Spain that's interested in North Africa and is far more devoted to restoring christian lands. Austria might be weaker (although I'm not sure how much they ever depended on Spanish money) but Spain will threaten them on the other stretch of their empire.
Restrictions on settlement are due to the different Crowns (Castille and Aragon) within 'Spain'. Furthermore Spain can't totally ignore the developments in Europe, even without the Burgundian Inheritance, since the Crown of Aragon had a lot of Italian possessions.
They may be able to less involved than IOTL.
As for the Habsburgs they were still pretty wealthy, the Low Countries were one of the wealthiest regions north of the Alps. Tyrol had silver mines. They will still grow close to Hungary-Bohemia (their goal is to inherit those, but that's not certain).
The Habsburgs as a whole will be weaker, but they will be stronger than the OTL Austrian Habsburgs.
They may be able to less involved than IOTL.
As for the Habsburgs they were still pretty wealthy, the Low Countries were one of the wealthiest regions north of the Alps. Tyrol had silver mines. They will still grow close to Hungary-Bohemia (their goal is to inherit those, but that's not certain).
The Habsburgs as a whole will be weaker, but they will be stronger than the OTL Austrian Habsburgs.
They'll also have a much freer hand as regards the whole Lutheran thing, which changes the entire tenor of the Reformation in the HRE.
The Habsburgs had been in favour of a Council to address the state of the church, long before the Pope was willing to do so.
At the same time the house of Habsburg were devout Catholics, but I can see them supporting a more autonomous Church in the Empire (still a part of the Catholic Church), like the OTL Gallican Church in France.
And there is the possibility of the emergence of a Hispanic Church, to abide the authority of the Pope but with great autonomy and even their own liturgy (the Mozarabic liturgy). After all, Cardinal Cisneros favored certain movements that could actually consider as reformers and his influence on a monarch educated by the Castilian court would be very remarkable, as was the Prince of Asturias Juan de Trastamara or the Iberian heir Miguel de la Paz de Aviz y Trastamara (the only son of Manuel I of Portugal and Isabella de Trastamara, the eldest daughter of the Catholics Monarchs).
Deleted member 67076
Wait, how? Charles V got an insane amount of money to pay for his wars thanks to Peruvian silver. Now the Habsburg Emperor doesn't have that. Nor can he count on the Spanish from providing relief via their navy and diverting resources. (this is all assuming Hungary still falls and doesn't just becomes a client)
Also I very much doubt Morocco would fall to the Spanish. The coast might, but the hinterland won't. Its extremely hard to control the various nomadic Berber tribes. All I see is this causing the fall of the Wattasids earlier and the replacement with a more competent dynasty. And/or something like the Battle of Alcacer Quibir.
This just seems like a giant money sink for Spain.
I can't help but feel this won't be as neatly organized as OTL. Spain might not decided to declare war on France while the Austrian Netherlands get invaded on one occasion or something.
This all depends on if they want to pour their funds into a sinkhole trying to dislodge the Ottomans from North Africa and conquering the Maghrebi hinterland.
Luckily (see my previous post) for the Habsburg they did not only depend on the wealth from the Spanish new world colonies.
I agree, Castille-Aragon and Austria-Burgundy (maybe Hungary-Bohemia-Austria-Burgundy) do seem destined to be usually allied against France.
It won't be as organized as IOTL.
Furthermore the Habsburg do have an interest in Italy too, more specifically the duchy of Milan.
Still IOTL France and the Habsburg lands (Spain, Austria etc.) were pretty even in terms of strength, resources etc., usually a third power, often England, could tip the scale.
Now it will require a lot more coordination to keep France in check, and possibly more English involvement to achieve this.
On the one hand there still is the Habsburg-France rivalry as a leftover from the Burgundian Inheritance, on the other hand Spain is a potential greater threat to France than the Habsburg lands.
On the one hand Charles V won't have his virtual infinite money cheat, but given that the Burgundian inheritance was actually his seat of political and economic power, I don't think the Habsburgs do too bad.
And the Trastamaras don't have a reason to not be friendly with the Emperor. After all, France is using its huge population and developing centralization to become Western Europe's big dog.
What this means for the Reformation will be interesting...
And the Trastamaras don't have a reason to not be friendly with the Emperor. After all, France is using its huge population and developing centralization to become Western Europe's big dog.
What this means for the Reformation will be interesting...
Yep. Remember--Spain has much of Italy, and France wants Italy. The Emperor has the Netherlands and France wants the Netherlands. Given that... well, the Empire and Spain are probably going to be besties.
For a while, at least.
For a while, at least.
The Empire also had an interest in northern Italy. (Whereas Spain's focus was more southern Italy).
Stronger Spain, stronger Habsburg Empire (not fettered to the affairs of the New World and the ongoing Inquisition), both allies to the other, both can coordinate against France (and Ottomans, Britain, Sweden, Russia, etc.) better than Charles V could with both empires under his command...
Given the fact that the Habsburgs controlled the Low Countries, they like England and France, will eventually have colonies of their own.
Would they, though? Dutch traders venturing around the Cape would bear the Imperial banner?
I suppose it's plausible. In this case we're butterfly-ing away BeNeLux independence.
HJ Tulp
Donor
I don't see why not. The trade-possibilities are still there. What is harder to accomplish is the forced merger that led to the formation of the United East India Company. Van Oldenbarneveldt was the leading force behind it. He might be born (1547) but to see him in such a high position is difficult with all the difference in government and the butterflies that go with this scenario. Then again such mergers and/or government sanctioned monopolists were founded in almost all nations.
It doesn't have to be the Imperial banner, it may very likely be the Habsburg banner.
The Habsburg weren't only the Emperor, but through the Burgundian Inheritance they also were sovereign lord (duke, margrave, count etc.) of various principalities in the Low Countries.