WI No Spanish-American War?

Cuba is going to become the Sapnish version of Vietnam. The guerillas are going to likely be receiving aid from the United States government, and the sheer amount of casualties, the cost, etc., while prompt a withdrawal by at the very latest 1910. Puerto Rico had already been granted an autonomous government within the Kingdom, so they could remain under Spanish governance well into the century. Independence may or may not come; it entirely depends upon the situations of history.

The Phillipines are a different matter. One of the major issues when the Americans decided to "purhcase" the Phillipines was that if they did not take them, Germany or Japan would; both expressed interests in them. Germany had already bought the remainder of the Spanish colonies in the Pacific, and would likely sought not only the prestige of holding it, but Manila Harbor. Japan wanted it because Japan wanted it, and it is very likely that sometime after 1908, if Spain still held on, Japan would have kicked them out either economically or militarily. As to how they would maintain control, their methods were brutal in regards to occupation. If they could not properly rules them through normal means, they would do so through fear and brutal suppression of dissent.

You have that backwards. Spain sold it's remaining possessions after it had lost the Philippines, not before. The only thing it "sold" prior was the Marshall's, to which Germany had a competing claim and the Pope awarded to Germany in exchange for a payment.

Japan can want the Philippines all it wants, it ain't gettin' em.
 
As far as I know, to the time of the spanish-american war, the british influence and presence was well established in Sabah. The sultans of Sulu (and Brunei) kept the claim alive but Spain, after early protests to the british, relinquished their support to the Sulu sultans in the matter in order to keep good relations with the british. If I'm not wrong, was the USA who revived the issue in the international scene after the spanish defeat, thus the recognition of the Sultan's rights.
If we want an spanish Sabah I think we need a POD some time before, maybe if, for some reasons the british have not interest or means to strnght their presence in the zone...but we have still the Dutchs. Spains, for his own, can't do nothing against the british. It would be against the spanish doctrine in international relations at the time (more or less with France and Britain when they are together, neutrals when they are opposed) and it would be a suicide if Spain goes to war against Britain.




I can't help you in that question because my lack of knowledge, but I think in any scenario you should take into account two major limitations to the spanish military capabilities and ambitions (and not only military). Obviously the lesser industrial basis compared to the main competitors in the world stage (and the lesser manpower) and the chronic budget deficits runned by the spanish state during the entire XIXth century, except for four years. On the other hand, no spanish-american war probably means a bit less worse economical situation for Spain and specially less pressure over its public debt (I'm talking about 1898, not the present), but not enough to boost too much the spanish power. So, probably the size, equipement and training of the spanish armed and naval forces would be similar to OTL, or at least not much bigger, I guess. But I don't know how they would be distributed in TTL.



I also mostly agree with Tocomocho's scheme, but I think it could be nuanced. The internal tensions are still there with or without spanish-american war, and even in the eventuality of a spanish victory in the war they would be there. So, in TTL Spain wouldn't be neither a haven of social harmony. There is a huge agrarian problem, probably the deeper in europe at the time, a deficient pseudo-democracy which managed to integrate groups of interest excluded during the reign of Isabell II but still avoided the social question and didn't help to create a climate of confiance in the parlamentary system among the masses. The democratic revolution of 1868 and the First Republic troubles didn't come from the vacuum and many of the forces behind it were still alive. Furthermore, the anarchist and socialist movements were gaining more and more ground at least since the 1870's (that's not in principle very different to the rest of Europe) and the voices calling for a "regeneration" of the country predate the disaster of 1898, although it boosted them. Also, the deficient national and economical integration , the regional disparities and selfish regional groups of power (which were the spine of the Restauracion's regime) are still there. In my opinion, in the more optimistic case in TTL Spain could aspire to be a poorer but less tacky version of Italy, and that's not a good prospect and it even seems unlikely.

Regarding Morocco I have doubts. On the one hand, there were sectors during the second half of the XIXth century who considered that the natural frontiers of Spain were in the Atlas mountains through certain weird historical interpretations, among them Cánovas himself, but I'm almost sure they were a minority. On the other hand, if the interests of the catalan bourgeoisie in Cuba and Puerto Rico remain intact, probably there will be less interests in new colonial adventures. Although Spain had still economical and strategical interests in the southern neighbor and precedent and frustrating conflicts against them. Additionally, the disaster of 1898 served to realize about several deficiencies in the spanish defensive capabilities. That's also related with your previous question about the colonial forces. It was clear that defending a flank of the spanish territory (the Atlantic or the Mediterranean) would mean exposing the other. Therefore, if someone realizes these problem without spanish-american war, I suppose Morocco would play some role in the mediterranean defence, but I dont know in what way. Anyway, as said before, the spanish ambitions would be limited by the spanish capabilities.

And regarding Cuba, I agree mostly with you. but also I think a negotiated solution to the conflict would be necessary and wanted by both sides, maybe a remake of the Zanjón peace with steroids granting large autonomy to the Island, as other have suggested. A long conflict was against the economical and political interests of both the spanish government and (specially) supporters in Cuba and the rebels, leaving aside the foreing investments in the island which perhaps could have lead to ulterior international pressure over the spanish authorities to make a deal.

Cheers.

Very nice post. With regard to Morocco, in the TL I'm working on, Britain doesn't invade Egypt and is thus in a much stronger diplomatic position vis a vis France and Germany in Africa, which protects Moroccan independence. If France doesn't get any of Morocco, Spain probably can't have any either.
 
No SAW > No discredit of the Army > No or less unpopular prestige campaigns in northern Morocco > No Primo de Rivera's Dictablanda > No discredit of the Monarchy > No II Republic > No SCW > No Franco

The Dictablanda wasn't Primo de Rivera's dictatorship. That was the government of the guy that went AFTER Primo de Rivera, Berenguer.
 
Okay for whatever reason...the SAW is avoided. Cooler heads prevail in Spain and they don't declare war in the aftermath of the US ultimatum to withdraw from Cuba ( they simply sever relations...Or the Maine doesn't blow up in Havana but suffers something less catastrophic in an American port instead or perhaps another ship of the class, who knows...leading to re-design of the American Battle fleet and a wholesale move away from Coal as a fuel source ...but thats a divergence from what most are concerned with.

Even if no SAW... the US diplomatic pressure on Spain to resolve its "Cuban problem" is going to continue..Its US financial interests at this point driving the Cuban economy, something that is not lost on the revolutionaries or the Spanish. Both parties also have the more recent Hawaiian experience to draw on as well. If there has been no Maine explosion, there probably is no American ultimatum and no Teller amendment so the American position is still Muddy where the Spanish and Cubans are concerned. Something along the lines of the 10 year rebellion of the 1860's won't happen. US economic interests simply won't tolerate it. So Spain has to defeat the rebels probably before the turn of the century. With the concurrent Philippine insurrection its probably not doable. So its more likely the Cuban situation is resolved through some US or more likely Anglo- US sponsored arbitration leading to an accomodation with the rebels that grants them a high degree of autonomy...complete jurisdiction of their own domestic affairs with Spain retaining control of overall defense ( With The Cubans themselves having a Militia for home defense) and External relations, though Havana probably also gains a measure of control at a consular level as well or in a consultive role for relations within the Caribbean basin ( as it pertains to Cuba itself) and with Washington. That would be a minimum. Otherwise you would see a Cuban republic or outright US annexation depending on the actual circumstances of US "intervention" and whether anything akin to the Teller amendment occurs, and whether Spain has any support against such US intervention.

I mean if the US declared War against Spain instead of the other way around could Spain expect support from any quarter. That probably depends on who has been the most intransigent in coming to terms to find a suitable agreement that suits both parties. Spain or the Cuban rebels.

Once the Cuban question is resolved, Spain has greater freedom of action with respect to the First Philippine Republic. Even so it will be a costly undertaking for them to regain control fully of the Islands and doubtful that its going to be long term.

Japan has only just defeated the Chinese and secured a measure of Korean independence. Something which has opened the door to the Russians who even now are casting their eyes east to see how they can capitalize on the new development. The Japanese are not going to let all that hard work against the Chinese go for naught and will be primarily concerned with guarding their new found position their and their defensive perimeter ( in the turn of the century context of course) against any foreign interlopers.

If the Russo - Japanese War occurs with similiar resultsand the Philippine insurrection has no end in sight. Then the Spanish are going to start thinking in terms of reaching a " Cuban "style accomodation that preserves a measure of Spanish Sovereignty less the Japan start looking south now to Sponsor the on-going Philippine revolt ( I doubt the Japanese will intervene militarily in the immediate aftermath of the Russo-Japanese War.. The fallout diplomatically and consequences would still have to run their course first before the Japanese undertake such a measure on their own again. the alternative is finding some regional defensive partner. Say France perhaps, because of their influence with Russia and their own colonial interests nearby in Indochina. this would be of course to counter the any threat that Japan might be perceived capable of exerting in the aftermath of a victory over Russia. Or on an informal level perhaps with Britain, because of the measure of influence they might be able to exert on Japan because of their own agreement of 1902. However, I doubt that any of the European powers would be willing to commit to something like that while the Philippine revolt was a going concern....they are not going to want to be associated it even second hand so the Spanish will need to find an acceptable accomodation or bring an end to it in short order shortly after the Russo-Japanese War.

They could alternatively turn to Japan for aid in bringing order to the Islands but that would mean granting them some concessions in the islands. that could be doable though it would be hard to digest for Spain. But its far more palatable after a Japanese defeat of Russia than before the Russo-Japanese conflict. this opens the door to Spanish Japanese co-operation in the East Asian region akin to that of the Anglo - Japanese agreement. Both probably put the Spanish more in the "pro Entente" camp if and when WW I occurs and if the same lineup occurs. The Japanese though themselves could make any agreement conditional on installing a "Cuban Style" Autonomy for the islands and indeed it would make more sense for them to insist on such as it offers them greater access and influence though it would maintain the overall Spanish sovereignty and Philippine domestic autonomy.

To sum then, with respect to the Philippines. Once a Cuban resolution is achieved at the turn of the century. The Spanish either succeed within the next 5 years tops in crushing the first republic and its southern allied states in Mindanao and nearby islands or they seek an accomodation that results in "Cuban style dominion status" (I'm not sure what term the Spanish could use that would convey the same kind of ambiguousness that the Br. North Americans did with Canada in 1867) within the Empire and gains a defensive partner with one of the European states with colonial interests in the region or alternatively Japan itself for a more comprehensive Defensive alliance along the lines of the Anglo-Japanese agreement that might even include limited basing rights in peacetime in selected ports in Spain's Pacific possessions.

Obviously, If Spain retains its empire in some format then it has no need nor a desire to divest itself of its Pacific possessions. The Sale to Germany was consequent to the US possession of the Philippines not prior to it.

In such a scenario, de Jure annexation of Hawaii may also not occur. It was possession of the Philippines that strengthened arguments in favour of actual annexation. Without that there is no need for a military outpost in the middle of the Pacific. Instead you see a pro- US government installed returning some measure of control back to the Hawaiians as long as US commercial interests are safe guarded. The Monarchy may even come back but with highly limited freedom of action...A constitutional monarchy dependent on consultation with the Pro-US legislative body and a defensive agreement with the US allowing limited basing rights. There will be no huge development of Pearl for instance and the major Naval harbours of the US remain on the West coast instead.

Honestly this is all very fascinating...with regard to potential ramifications in the aftermath of an alt. WWI this time around.
 
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