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Let's say that the Soviet Union is less willing to support Iraq's naked aggression in the Iran-Iraq war and does not resume exports of arms to Iraq when the Iranians managed to gain the upper hand in the war in 1982.

Per usual in the Communist Block, there will be a split between those more loyal to Moscow and the more independent minded regimes - China, North Korea, Romania and Yugoslavia will be potential sources of Soviet-designed weaponry for Iraq. (Though North Korea may not sell - they seem to have been committed to Iran in OTL.)

What effects might this have?

Some thoughts:

*Relations between the Soviets and Iranians are better, and it may mean the Tudeh party avoids being crushed by the regime in 1983 and thus continues playing the part of a loyal opposition. I'm not sure what effect this would have. While the revolutionary regime's relatively benign attitude towards Tudeh between 1979 and 1983 allowed Tudeh to gain much ground, all of the levers of power in Iran were in the hands of the theocrats.

*Without Soviet aid to Iraq, France becomes Saddam's main supplier. That could have interesting effects if Saddam survives and invades Kuwait as he did in OTL.

*If the USSR isn't flooding Iraq with weapons, how well do they hold out? And might fears of an Iraqi collapse mean that the Gulf Arabs get drawn into sending "volunteers" or even regular military units to support Iraq? And might the US be driven to flood Iraq with their weapons to replace what the Soviets would have sent in OTL?

*The Soviets seem to have received significant dollar income from their arms exports to Iraq during the war, I've not been able to find solid numbers for exactly how much Iraq bought (though when the Soviet Union fell 8-10 billion USD worth of Iraqi military debts were still outstanding) it is possible that the lack of Soviet exports to Iraq would push their overall trade balance into a slight deficit.

*In OTL, the Iraqi regime often blamed its own incompetence on their Soviet equipment. This may have been a contributing factor in the Soviets resuming arms exports to Iraq. In a situation where Iraq is getting only second-rate Soviet-designed equipment from China, Romania and Yugoslavia (meaning Iraq has none of the first-rate stuff which the Soviets only made available after 1982) can the Soviets calm the nerves of their other arms customers? And might the Soviets feel pushed into exporting more of their first-rate weapons systems to more customers?

*The Soviet support for Iraq made them much more popular with the conservative Arab states, in some cases (those of Oman and the UAE) opening diplomatic relations for the first time. If the Soviets don't support Iraq, the Gulf States will be much more strongly aligned with the US. Given the Cold War was due to end soon, this may not have much impact, but it may be that without the aid to Iraq, Post-Soviet Russia wouldn't enjoy the good relations it does with Saudi Arabia.

*If the Soviets don't support Iraq, does that mean that the West sees Iran as being pro-Soviet by default?

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