WI: No Soviet Knowaldge of the Atom Bomb

[King of the Uzbeks]

Throughout the Manhattan Project Soviet spies were present and passing on information to Stalin. As a result the USSR was not shocked when Truman told Stalin of his "new power" and when the bombs fell.

What if this was not the case? What if at Postdam Truman's hints to it were completly new to Stalin and the bombings a shock?

From this point what happens? How does the USSR react to this completly new force? Without any spies to pass on plans how does the Soviet program develop?

 

[MattII]

Well the genie's out of the bottle in 1945 thanks to the bombs being dropped. However, with little information attained via espionage they'll be set back several years.

I wonder, with no Soviet A-bomb in 1949, how would the Korean War go?

 

[ObssesedNuker]

Well the genie's out of the bottle in 1945 thanks to the bombs being dropped. However, with little information attained via espionage they'll be set back several years.

Roughly one to two years, based on modern scholarship of the Soviet atomic program.

I wonder, with no Soviet A-bomb in 1949, how would the Korean War go?

That is an interesting question. Would it even happen as per OTL? Stalin was pretty reluctant in approving the Korean venture IOTL (albeit not as much as the Chinese) and made sure to stay as hands-off as possible. By 1950, the ITTL Soviet bomb will still be anywhere between several months to a year off, so would that discourage him or would he think he could still dodge any US retaliatory action against the USSR long enough to bring it online? Lot's of interesting possibilities there.

Of course if the Korean war doesn't happen as soon as OTL, the internal political situation in South Korea could deteriorate badly enough that when the North Korean attack does come then there is an uprising in it's support that causes the peninsula to fall before the US can take action.

 

[SactoMan101]

Let's say the Soviets did not have spies in the Manhattan project.

They still would have built the atomic bomb, but the device would probably not be ready until 1953-1954 at earliest. Igor Kurchatov, who headed the Soviet atomic bomb program, already had a very good idea of how to build at least the "gunbarrel" style bomb using uranium-235 as the fissile material by the early 1940's, and probably would have started work on a plutonium-239 based implosion style bomb by the late 1940's.

 

[Mr_ Bondoc]

One major change, without the invasion of the Soviet Union into northern Manchukuo, the Soviets aren't able to lay claims to the Kuril Islands.Also the support for the establishment of Communist forces in China and Korea, becomes problematic....

 

[Mad Bad Rabbit]

If there aren't communist spies giving the A-Bomb plans to the Soviets, and no Rosenberg trial, will the Red Scare have as much momentum?
Fewer destroyed careers, and perhaps Reagan stays an actor.

 

[redlightning]

Simple. Instead of sending spies to infiltrate the Manhattan Project before 1945, Stalin sends them after and learns atomic secrets after the bomb is used instead. The Soviets will make an effort to get this weapon no matter what.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

Simple. Instead of sending spies to infiltrate the Manhattan Project before 1945, Stalin sends them after and learns atomic secrets after the bomb is used instead. The Soviets will make an effort to get this weapon no matter what.

Point. The assets the Soviets started using when they realized the Americans were working on a bomb in 1942 were already well-established or, in the specific case of Theodore Hall, had literally walked in off the street and told the NKVD staff at the Soviet embassy he wanted to help them.

 

[Jack Hawksmoor]

On the Soviet side most likely a later Soviet bomb, and Korean war delayed, although probably not much (Stalin was quite willing to test the resolve of West). The greatest immediate impact is on what will Syngman Rhee do in Korea. He might try to declare martial law, given that parliament went to the independents just before the North invaded.