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Khrushchev and the Soviet politburo in 1956 came very close to not intervening in the Hungarian revolution, even Zhukov was initially against it.

What prompted the Soviets to intervene was some mixture of escalating violence against the Hungarian communist state apparatus and Nagy making noises and then outright declaring Hungarian "neutrality". De facto announcing the withdrawal of Hungary from the Warsaw pact.

What if Nagy had played his cards better and restrained the more open attacks against Hungarian Communists and paid some lip service to staying inside the Warpact, let's say the Soviets stick by their initial decision not to intervene: what happens next?
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