WI: No Soviet entry in Pacific War

This simply not true, any of it.

The Japanese had figured out EXACTLY where the Kyushu landings were going to occur. They had managed to move over hundreds of thousands of fully armed armed troops into position (including several rock solid Kwantung Army divisions) and had better than 11,000 aircraft ready for kamikazi attacks (This included a number of older trainers that were mainly wooden construction and, as the Japanese discovered accidentally, were much more difficult to 1) pick up on radar & 2) lacked enough metal to set off the proximity fuses that were so effective in killing regular kamikazis. These aircraft would have been a particular pain in the neck at night, and the Japanese had planned to use instructors who were night qualified in that role.) as well as 2,500 suicide speedboats. The Japanese had also made a decision that they would finally stop targeting carriers and battleships and go after the really important targets, the troop ships.

What is REALLY scary is the the U.S. didn't know that there was this level of opposition available. The RN/USN had tried to sucker the Japanese into attacking the fleet when the bombarded the Home Islands, but the Japanese didn't bite. The Allies decided that they didn't react because they couldn't. They didn't react because the knew they had finite resources and they were going to wait until the latest version of the "Decisive Battle" was in the offing. They were not finding the suicide boats do the figured there werent any. They figured that the Japanese had about half the aircraft and less than half the troops available on Kyushu that were actually there. They had no idea that the defenders in Southern Kyushu actually outnumbered the assault forces (although to be fair, the last Intel was showing a LOT more IJA troops on Kyushu than expected)

Japan was beginning to starve, but was NOT yet in full on famine with bodies piling up in the streets. It would certainly have gotten to that point, but that was well into 1946, and certainly not have forced a surrender before late 1946-early 1947, or after both Olympic and Coronet were planned.

The same can be said for the bombing offensive. There were almost no makor cities left to hit once the "reserved" list was finished. The AAF was planning to start hitting cities of 40,000 population or less simply because there was nothing else left worth hitting. There would have been many casualties, probably ranging into the millions if the war had continued into mid 1946, but if the destruction over every major city in Japan, plus two nuclear attacks, wsn't enough to put the Japanese at the table, the destruction of towns wasn't going to do it either. It is also unlikely that more than one, at the most two, addtional weapons would have been expended against city targets. General Marshall had decided that he would use the 7-10 weapons that would be ready by the time of Olympic in the tactical role (yes, that is as crazy as it sounds to our modern ears, but at the time it made sense).

The Navy, especially Admiral King, WANTED to block and bomb, but they were still in the minority. The President and his advisors were resigned to invasion, and while there is always the chance that the October 1945 typhoons would have caused enough delay that the Japanese would have fallen over, it was not part of the Plan.

There has been a LOT of revisionist history on this subject, most of it is totally wrong. Downfall was going to happen. Even though the "let 'em starve" strategy had proponents none of them were named Truman.
CalBear-
You missed something rather important about the Kamikazes; despite throwing away (literally) the lives of thousands of young Japanese, the number of Kamikazes you qouted would have only scored 1540 hits on the Allied fleet. Now assuming, and this is a big assumption, that every single one of these hit one ship each (which they most defenitely wouldn't have), they would have sunk 131 ships... this isn't even remotely enough to stop the Americans. For all their alleged bravery, the kamikaze pilots would have done nothing to help the Japanese in the event of an invasion that was never going to come anyway.

This goes back to the issue of the invasion itself, it was not necessary, it was not going to end the war quicker and it was not going to happen. The third nuclear bomb would have ensured this, most probably, because it would have been aimed at Tokyo. In the process, the Japanese high command would have been gone and either the Japanese simply would have stopped fighting (you may wish to note that the Americans spent many of the early months of the occupation defending Japanese soldiers from vengeful civilians) or anyone with the necessary authority left would have surrendered the country. There is only one situation where I think Truman would have ordered an American invasion of Japan, which would have been to head off the Russians if they landed on Hokkadio. After the bombs were dropped, Downfall was a waste of lives and besides, Japanese resistance was utterly futile.
 
CalBear-
You missed something rather important about the Kamikazes; despite throwing away (literally) the lives of thousands of young Japanese, the number of Kamikazes you qouted would have only scored 1540 hits on the Allied fleet. Now assuming, and this is a big assumption, that every single one of these hit one ship each (which they most defenitely wouldn't have), they would have sunk 131 ships... this isn't even remotely enough to stop the Americans. For all their alleged bravery, the kamikaze pilots would have done nothing to help the Japanese in the event of an invasion that was never going to come anyway.

This goes back to the issue of the invasion itself, it was not necessary, it was not going to end the war quicker and it was not going to happen. The third nuclear bomb would have ensured this, most probably, because it would have been aimed at Tokyo. In the process, the Japanese high command would have been gone and either the Japanese simply would have stopped fighting (you may wish to note that the Americans spent many of the early months of the occupation defending Japanese soldiers from vengeful civilians) or anyone with the necessary authority left would have surrendered the country. There is only one situation where I think Truman would have ordered an American invasion of Japan, which would have been to head off the Russians if they landed on Hokkadio. After the bombs were dropped, Downfall was a waste of lives and besides, Japanese resistance was utterly futile.


...
No. Under _no_ sitautions did anyone want to kill the Emperor. By this point, the US was _quite_ aware that doing so would have basically _required_ the effective destruction of the Japanese culture and popluation. Tokyo was explictly left off the list for that excat reason, to avoid killng him.
(or so the US belived, to be fair. MacA and others were _very_ much agasint killing him, for several reasons, and it's one of the -few- good things MacA did.)

Yes, Japaense resistance was futile. No one (even the JAPANESE at the time!) disagreed. It was "just how much it would cost"

A
 

CalBear

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The point wasn't to STOP the invasion. The entire point of the Japanese was to make the Americans bleed. They had, through their embassies in 3rd countries, access to the American media. They had read the papers during Okinawa, especially the Republican papers. They had read the stories about the demands for partial demobilization (e.g. the "Point System"). They believed that they could still create a "victory" if they made the U.S. bleed enough. They believed that they could keep the entire country from being occupied and keep the Emperor in control (meaning the miltarists in control) and that was going to represent a victory. That was the Japanese goal, force the U.S. to allow the Old Order to continue. Would it have worked? Almost certainly not. The butcher's bill before it failed would, however, have been appalling.

The various kamikazis inflicted more losses on the USN off Okinawa that it had suffered in most of the Pacific War. That was with them flying from Japan, for hundreds of miles over open water. At Kyushu the were going to be flying out of ground clutter and over short distances, the fighters would not have had an hour or more to saw them down, they would probably have had 10 minutes, tops. The Japanese had, as I noted, finally figured out that you want to his the archers and not the arrows; the primary target of the suicide aircraft and boats were the transports. Transports die easier than a carrier. The Navy expected to lose as much as 10% of the transports before they had a chance to off-load their troops (this was based on facing 6,000 kamikazes, not the 11K+ that were actually in play).

The Navy, once it realized that it actually going to have to support the invasion put in an emergency order for 50,000 Purple Hearts, followed by a second order of 25,000. They then started borrowing from the Army (talk about galling) so they would have enough on hand for the START of the Olympic operation. King and his advisors obviously thought that the kamikazis were a real threat.

The Bomb was not going to end the war, not by itself. The Ruling council had already decided to fight on after Nagasaki was hit, reasoning that the U.S. had, at most 2 more weapons (actually there was only one in theater) and what was one or two more cities. The entry of the Soviets, at almost the same time that Nagasaki was hit, was the extra kick that allowed the Peace Party enough of an opening to survive the decision to surrender (which, as is well known, was disturbingly close to being derailed by the attempted revolt of junior officers).

The best judge of what was going to happen is what the average Japanese citizen believed. In post-war interviews the subjects were almost universal in their belief that the war was going to continue, with most of the younger men saying that without the surrender they would have died. Interestingly, almost none of the interviewees had even given a fleeting thought to NOT fighting on, even those who were in the "civilian volunteer" formations.

The about to fall over and surrender position is not supported by the record. It is not supported by the personal opinions of the Japanese who would have been sent to the slaughter. It is not supported by the post-war interrogations of Japanese Army officers regardless of rank. It is simply unsupportable give the massive proponderance of facts.

Too many revisionist historians overlay 21st Century American values onto the 1945 Japanese leadership and population, That simply doesn't work, you can not even do it for the American people of the era.

A blockade and bombing campaign would have been smarter. The Navy really wanted one. I for one have advocated it here in the Forum more than once. That doesn't mean that it would have happened.
CalBear-
You missed something rather important about the Kamikazes; despite throwing away (literally) the lives of thousands of young Japanese, the number of Kamikazes you qouted would have only scored 1540 hits on the Allied fleet. Now assuming, and this is a big assumption, that every single one of these hit one ship each (which they most defenitely wouldn't have), they would have sunk 131 ships... this isn't even remotely enough to stop the Americans. For all their alleged bravery, the kamikaze pilots would have done nothing to help the Japanese in the event of an invasion that was never going to come anyway.

This goes back to the issue of the invasion itself, it was not necessary, it was not going to end the war quicker and it was not going to happen. The third nuclear bomb would have ensured this, most probably, because it would have been aimed at Tokyo. In the process, the Japanese high command would have been gone and either the Japanese simply would have stopped fighting (you may wish to note that the Americans spent many of the early months of the occupation defending Japanese soldiers from vengeful civilians) or anyone with the necessary authority left would have surrendered the country. There is only one situation where I think Truman would have ordered an American invasion of Japan, which would have been to head off the Russians if they landed on Hokkadio. After the bombs were dropped, Downfall was a waste of lives and besides, Japanese resistance was utterly futile.
 
but what happens if Japan throws in the towel first? Then the Soviets don't get the Kuriles, half of Sakhalin or any of Korea at best.
Karafuto [Sakhalin] was given to the Russians at Tehran, while the allies were dividing the Spoils.
Even if V-J day happens before the Russians arrive, Russia still gets Karafuto.

There is another scenario, for no Soviets in the Pacific - Russia Defeated - Separate Peace.
 
They had a set number of days after Europe was over with the re-arm, re-supply, and stuff everything into trains and get it over to Manchuria.

If the war in Europe drags on long enough maybe the Bomb is ready before the Soviets can get everything in place?
Or... If a couple of things go right early on in the war, the Manhattan project is started earlier, and the 2 bombs are ready 6 months earlier (which should be entirely doable - much more that 6 months gets harder really fast).

So Japanese surrender before the war in Europe is over.
 
This simply not true, any of it.

The Japanese had figured out EXACTLY where the Kyushu landings were going to occur. They had managed to move over hundreds of thousands of fully armed armed troops into position (including several rock solid Kwantung Army divisions) and had better than 11,000 aircraft ready for kamikazi attacks (This included a number of older trainers that were mainly wooden construction and, as the Japanese discovered accidentally, were much more difficult to 1) pick up on radar & 2) lacked enough metal to set off the proximity fuses that were so effective in killing regular kamikazis. These aircraft would have been a particular pain in the neck at night, and the Japanese had planned to use instructors who were night qualified in that role.) as well as 2,500 suicide speedboats. The Japanese had also made a decision that they would finally stop targeting carriers and battleships and go after the really important targets, the troop ships.

One of the 'Japanese invasion' scenarios I like best is the idea, that I believe was discussed, of LETTING the Japanese load all their troops into Kyushu - then cut passage between the islands and invade Honshu - specifically the Kanto plain.

Of course THE 'Japanese invasion' scenario I like best of all is where it never happens - like OTL.
 
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