Well, the new union treaty would likely have been ratified my most Soviet republics. Only the Baltic states, Moldova, Georgia and Armenia would probably have voted for leaving the USSR.
This new capitalist USSR (Union of Sovereign Soviet Republics) is stronger militarily though still has to accept second place vis-a-vis the US and has to accept a demotion to great power status instead of superpower.
Economic reform, however - and not the 'economic electroshock therapy' bungling by Yeltsin but moderate market and consumer oriented reform - could lead to a quicker recovery than IOTL after the end of communism. All the member states' nominal GDPs add up to about 2 trillion. With better economic policies in the early 90s, I could see it at several times that in 2011 ITTL. The USSR could easily become the world's second or third economy just ahead of or just behind China with armed forces to fit with this number.
The implications for Afghanistan would also be interesting. While the Soviet Army is out, the Afghan army fought better without them. With Soviet air support and perhaps an artillery strike here and there, I could see the communist regime holding out several years longer than it did even if much of the southern part of the country escapes from their control.