WI: No Somalian Civil War

[GrizzlyTrotsky]

What if Somalia had never fallen into a civil war, due to the Barre regime not being ousted from power? The experience of foreign powers in Somalia in the debacle of the botched UN mission heavily colored the reactions of the West and especially the US to the idea of foreign intervention throughout the 90s, in part causing the West to drag its feet in handling both the Bosnian conflict and the Rwandan Genocide.

Without the experience in Somalia, would the West have intervened more decisively in Rwanda and Yugoslavia? In Rwanda, could decisive action in turn have prevented the First and Second Congo War?

Further, what would the effect of at least a semi-stable Somalia have directly in its neighborhood?

 

[Francisco Cojuanco]

Rather difficult, I have to say. You need to find a way to avoid the Ogaden War with Somalia. Things started to fray after they lost. Even winning, though, might prove too hard a strain on the Somali political system, such as it was. The problem with avoding the War is that Barre was a Greater Somalia nationalist, and the Somali-Ethiopian border was in large part an artificial border set between Britain and the Ethiopians. It seems close to ASB to me at least with a post-1900 POD limit.

 

[Simreeve]

Is it easier if Barre never comes to power in the first place?

 

[Hamurabi]

Is it easier if Barre never comes to power in the first place?

The millitary was going to take over sooner or later as it was the most organized and professional part of the state.
It was surprising that it took 9 years because it was much earliler in other african countries and even stable countries like kenya and tanzania became authoritarian one party states.
Somalia had a crazy parlaimentary democracy between 1960 and 1969.

Possible points of departures to avoid the somalian civil war.
1.No Ogaden war or a delayed one.
2.No border issue, lets say PM erenst bevins suggestion for unifiying all somali territories in 1948 was accepted and not vetoed by the USSR and the US.
Britain was in control of all the somali inhabited lands including Ogaden and NFP in Kenya.
3. Another member of the Junta that made the coup in 1969 takes power.
Siad was like Stalin , was not involved in the planning or the execution of the coup but was savvy enough to outmanouver everyone else and execute them. The other coup plotters where professional and idealists but where not as decisive and viscous as Siad Barre. They assumed he was harmless and wanted to keep him around as a puppet.

The other coup makers where a mixed group representing all the major clans, Siad barre by monopolizing all power later one concentrated all power and wealth on his own clan, in a clan oriented society this reduces nationalism and increase clan power.
The defeat of the Ogaden war took the air out of the Greater Somali Patriotic feeling and people reverted back to the time immemorial clan ,
leading to the civil war.