WI: No Shimabara Rebellion, Japan invades Philippines

Suppose that the christian Shimabara Rebellion (1637) in OTL southern Japan either never happens or is crushed earlier (no Amakusa Shiro?), and the Tokugawa Shogunate's plan to invade the Spanish Philippines with support from the dutch goes through.
Could the japanese and dutch succeed in expelling the spanish and, thus, the catholics from the Philippines?
How will they divide the archipelago between themselves?
What are the effects of this event on the history of East Asia, especially Japan and the DEI?
 
Suppose that the christian Shimabara Rebellion (1637) in OTL southern Japan either never happens or is crushed earlier (no Amakusa Shiro?), and the Tokugawa Shogunate's plan to invade the Spanish Philippines with support from the dutch goes through.
Could the japanese and dutch succeed in expelling the spanish and, thus, the catholics from the Philippines?
How will they divide the archipelago between themselves?
What are the effects of this event on the history of East Asia, especially Japan and the DEI?

Theoretically yes, the only problem is the Tokugawa invading the Philippines could hurt them if this invasion upsets the balance of power between Tozama and Fudai Daimyo.
The only Japanese military problems at this point in time are their ships their armed forces were still modern for the time. I think the Tokugawa could get most of Luzon.
 
Theoretically yes, the only problem is the Tokugawa invading the Philippines could hurt them if this invasion upsets the balance of power between Tozama and Fudai Daimyo..

I agree.


I don't consider the Japanese or Ming as a threat to the Philippines but the Dutch who are gaining support from the elite and rebels from Luzon, the interior of Luzon remains Hindu at this point..the people of Northern Luzon can pull a ternate or manado at the Spanish and defect to the Dutch..that did not happen because the Spanish abandoned Ternate and Mindanao so that they can maintain Luzon.
 
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