WI: No September 2008 Stock Market Crash

The economy on election day 2008 is the same is it was in January-August 2008. Does Obama still win all the states that he won OTL?
 
I wrote last year on the subject of what could lead to McCain beating Obama:

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The reason I don't think "stop the fall of Lehman Brothers" is enough: (1) the economy was in such a bad way by then that if Lehman Brothers hadn't collapsed, something else would have, and (2) McCain's good showing in polls in early September, of which some make so much, was a "convention bounce" and was already fading by September 15. The best indications of how the race stood pre-Lehman Brothers IMO were the polls in June to mid-August before either party held its convention, and those almost invariably favored Obama. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...neral_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html#polls

By the way, in March of 2008, Gallup found that more than three-fourths of Americans already believed the US was in a recession. http://news.gallup.com/poll/105109/most-americans-say-us-now-economic-recession.aspx (I would say they were more perceptive than many economists!)

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...-‘08-election-to-mccain.443063/#post-16973346
 
The economy before the crash was already bad. This, in addition to the unpopularity of the Iraq War, means that Obama still wins - but by a somewhat smaller margin.

In the long term, the economy recovers quicker and countless Americans retain their jobs and homes. This would politically benefit Obama and the Democrats in 2012. Perhaps butterflies could lead to a different result in 2016, given how narrow it was, but that discussion is up for current politics. Overall, America's economy is obviously stronger and society may be less divided based on wealth.
 

bguy

Donor
Probably not. But he still gets a clear electoral college majority of over 300 votes.

A slightly stronger McCain performance might mean the Republicans manage to win the senate races in Alaska and Minnesota though which will make passing ObamaCare much more difficult.
 
A slightly stronger McCain performance might mean the Republicans manage to win the senate races in Alaska and Minnesota though which will make passing ObamaCare much more difficult.

True. The Democrats wouldn't have enough votes to put down a Senate filibuster, and the ACA could very well die. Obama had promised to pass healthcare reform in his first term. So if the bill dies his promise goes unfulfilled. But if he looks at the smaller Senate majority and decides to leave healthcare for a second term, then the left will attack him for breaking his promise. In either event, a smaller Senate majority is bad for healthcare reform.

On the flip side, if the economy is doing better in 2012 then the Democrats might regain the House that year and make greater gains in the Senate. So they may yet have another chance to pass some version of healthcare reform in this scenario.
 
I remember reading an article the Rahm Emanuel (I may have misspelled it) advised Obama to go for a smaller program. I believe that it would have been a Medicaid expansion, allowing people to buy into Medicare at 55, and expanded cover for women and children. With no super majority, they may have gone for that instead.

Did I remember what Rahm Emanuel proposed correctly?
 
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