You need a whole mess of butterflies dating as far back as the 80s if not the 70s to prevent prevent the crisis. I could however see a scenario where the crisis is delayed in which case McCain has more than a snowball's chance in hell at getting elected President in 2008. I however am of the belief, with the benefit of hindsight, that Obama still would've won, it just would've been closer. A delayed crisis means that whoever wins in 2008 is trounced in 2012.
Agree. The polls were fairly close before the crash.
Big difference is you don't have 60 D Senators, and you don't get Obamacare.
No crash at all, and we have the second Clinton administration right now. (I honestly think Obamacare is what sunk Hillary - the three Rust Belt states that flipped all had double digit premium increases and the number of people affected easily exceeded Trump's margin).
Crash after the election and before the inauguration gets blamed on Bush, but there is no D supermajority in the Senate. We likely see a similar political outcome to no crash at all.
Crash after July 2009 gets assigned to Obama. 2010 is even more of a bloodbath. Republicans win in 2012. Romney might be seen as the guy who knows how to fix it (but might also be seen as having the stench of Wall Street on him). We don't get Trump because the anger will be directed at Democrats instead of both the Democrats and the GOPe.