Deleted member 1487
If Germany doesn't go to war there likely will be a much more mild build up in 1939 to signal to Japan to take the US seriously, but not anywhere near what it was IOTL up to 1942 and certainly not what it was during the war and post-war with the GI Bill. So the US economy does a lot more poorly unless there is war with Japan and then you get the bump. I'm assuming there isn't war with Japan ITTL, so then the US economic recovery is probably more like it is now after the 2008 recession: muted. Things pick up, but never get anywhere near what it was IOTL especially with competition not being destroyed, the inheritance of German scientists, and the looting of German patents valued at $10 Billion in 1940 dollars. Likely the economy would eventually put the GOP back into power in Congress and the Presidency, which starts dismantling the New Deal and labor protections. So the US ends up being a shadow of what it could have been IMHO, while Europe remains much more successful than even OTL thanks to no destruction and the loss of ~40 million people. The USSR would be highly interesting.Query: How well does New Deal Liberalism, government policy, and economic recovery do without WW2? Circa 1937 onward, things started to go off kilter. The Supreme Court took issue time and again with New Deal programs, and killed off a fair number. The Court Packing scheme revolted the public. And FDR cut back on spending and tried to balance the budget, which sent the economy back down again until he went back to New Deal policy. And this had to effect of giving Conservatives a boost, and they took Congress in 1938, thus blocking further reforms and ending the New Deal. WW2 washed over all of that. We went from Domestic Keynesianism to Wartime Keynesianism. Here, FDR simply has run into an opposition he cannot overcome.