WI: No Second Balkan War

In order for this to happen,the Balkan allies should remain in friendly relations,so that the Balkan League can remain intact.The main reason for the dissolution of the League was the division of newly acquired lands,especially Macedonia.Bulgaria and Serbia wanted to take the whole region,instead of honouring the prewar lines.When Bulgarian delegates in London warned Serbia that they shouldn't expect Bulgarian support on their claims in Northern Albania,the Serbian government decided to keep everything they had occupied,rather than retreating north.

What if Bulgaria decided to help Serbia with their claims on the Adriatic.Would this lead to a war between the Austrians and the Balkan League with Russia joining,as they were interested in a war against their rival.Can this lead to an earlier WWI?
 
In order for this to happen,the Balkan allies should remain in friendly relations,so that the Balkan League can remain intact.The main reason for the dissolution of the League was the division of newly acquired lands,especially Macedonia.Bulgaria and Serbia wanted to take the whole region,instead of honouring the prewar lines.When Bulgarian delegates in London warned Serbia that they shouldn't expect Bulgarian support on their claims in Northern Albania,the Serbian government decided to keep everything they had occupied,rather than retreating north.

What if Bulgaria decided to help Serbia with their claims on the Adriatic.Would this lead to a war between the Austrians and the Balkan League with Russia joining,as they were interested in a war against their rival.Can this lead to an earlier WWI?

Most likely. But the war with the Ottomans is not even over yet. A two front war between Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire might likely be fatal for Bulgaria and Serbia.

What I expect:
1. Serbia does get access to thr Adriatic which AH refuses to accept and sends an ultimatum. The League refuses
2. AH declares war
3. Russia supports the League in which the Germans enter as well
4. For Enver Pasha, it is the time to restart the war and enters as well
5. Romania sees the chance and demands Silistra (whether Bulgaria gives it or refuses is up to them, possible Romanian declaration of war.

It will be mostly a Eastern European War until France and maybe UK enters.
 
The support of the Bulgarian delegates matter little (what might help is Bulgarian armed support, but this is very unlikely). For diplomatic reasons Albania will be created and Serbia would use this as an excuse to not give up the agreed part of Macedonia, as of course happened OTL. Avoiding the Second Balkan War requires a Bulgarian government that see the

Most likely. But the war with the Ottomans is not even over yet. A two front war between Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire might likely be fatal for Bulgaria and Serbia.

What I expect:
1. Serbia does get access to thr Adriatic which AH refuses to accept and sends an ultimatum. The League refuses
2. AH declares war
3. Russia supports the League in which the Germans enter as well
4. For Enver Pasha, it is the time to restart the war and enters as well
5. Romania sees the chance and demands Silistra (whether Bulgaria gives it or refuses is up to them, possible Romanian declaration of war.

It will be mostly a Eastern European War until France and maybe UK enters.
No, it won't because the German war plans considered the quick defeat of France vital for a successful war. In OTL WWI also started in the Balkans but Germany invaded France almost immediately anyway. And if France is invaded, so will be Belgium, so Britain will enter the war as well. So basically this is a repeat of WWI, only with Bulgaria and Greece on the Entente side (I don't see Romania being any more likely to join the Central Powers than in OTL). All in all, a better scenario for the Entente.
 
The support of the Bulgarian delegates matter little (what might help is Bulgarian armed support, but this is very unlikely). For diplomatic reasons Albania will be created and Serbia would use this as an excuse to not give up the agreed part of Macedonia, as of course happened OTL. Avoiding the Second Balkan War requires a Bulgarian government that see the


No, it won't because the German war plans considered the quick defeat of France vital for a successful war. In OTL WWI also started in the Balkans but Germany invaded France almost immediately anyway. And if France is invaded, so will be Belgium, so Britain will enter the war as well. So basically this is a repeat of WWI, only with Bulgaria and Greece on the Entente side (I don't see Romania being any more likely to join the Central Powers than in OTL). All in all, a better scenario for the Entente.

Don't forget you also have Italy (Who has major interests in Albania and the Balkans in general) is fairly likely to be given her compensation under the terms of the Triple Alliance (Out of Albania and Greece) and weigh in on A-H's side in this instance. I'd also contest that Romania is less likely to join as they'd also be called up under their treaty terms while King Carol is still alive and kicking... and at least at first (When Romania would be most likely to make its declaration) this looks alot more like its going to remain a localized war as opposed to expanding into a global conflict. All you need is for Bucharest to make the plunge before London does. I'd argue that's worth more than Bulgaria flipping.
 
Don't forget you also have Italy (Who has major interests in Albania and the Balkans in general) is fairly likely to be given her compensation under the terms of the Triple Alliance (Out of Albania and Greece) and weigh in on A-H's side in this instance. I'd also contest that Romania is less likely to join as they'd also be called up under their treaty terms while King Carol is still alive and kicking... and at least at first (When Romania would be most likely to make its declaration) this looks alot more like its going to remain a localized war as opposed to expanding into a global conflict. All you need is for Bucharest to make the plunge before London does. I'd argue that's worth more than Bulgaria flipping.
The Ottomans might also join this war on Italy and A-H's side,as they'll want to reclaim some of the lands lost in the war.
 
The Ottomans might also join this war on Italy and A-H's side,as they'll want to reclaim some of the lands lost in the war.

Possibly... though I'd argue they're just as likely to issue an instance to Bulgaria (Possibly backed by Britain, who would want to mediate the situation in the Balkans rather than see it explode into a full-on Continental war) to concede Western Thrace in their peace treaty that was to end the First Balkan War in exchange for Ottoman neutrality in the conflict (Which would include keeping the Straits open to Entente commerical traffic). Remember, the sudden jump on Albania/the Adriatic Coast wasen't a move that was supported by the Great Powers, so your less-invested ones like Britain aren't going to have quite the same degree of sympathy towards the little Balkan nations than they did in the historical scenario. Russia, certainly, wants to keep Bulgaria as far away from the Straits as possible (It being St. Petersburg's policy that if they coulden't have Constantinople, they certainly preferred it to stay in the anemic hands of the Turks). The Ottomans certainly had no love for the Italians, and the new CUP government is still sitting on shakey ground so soon after the Coup, and have no formal treaty of friendship with the Germans, so a period of neutrality seems somewhat more likely (Especially of Djemal uses the possibility/achievement of getting concessions/ territorial guarantees from the British to consolidate more initial power during the formation of the Triumvirate, sufficent to take the edge off of Enver's wilder Pro-German policies)
 
Don't forget you also have Italy (Who has major interests in Albania and the Balkans in general) is fairly likely to be given her compensation under the terms of the Triple Alliance (Out of Albania and Greece) and weigh in on A-H's side in this instance. I'd also contest that Romania is less likely to join as they'd also be called up under their treaty terms while King Carol is still alive and kicking... and at least at first (When Romania would be most likely to make its declaration) this looks alot more like its going to remain a localized war as opposed to expanding into a global conflict. All you need is for Bucharest to make the plunge before London does. I'd argue that's worth more than Bulgaria flipping.
Italy's irredentism was mainly against Austria, far more than the coast of Albania. Most likely they would remain neutral until it's clear which side has the advantage. Romania was also far more interested in Transylvania than in any Bulgarian territory. It also matters little of what dynasty Carol was: as king of Romania he would primarily be interested in his own country's interests and they would not involve being allied with Austria.

Possibly... though I'd argue they're just as likely to issue an instance to Bulgaria (Possibly backed by Britain, who would want to mediate the situation in the Balkans rather than see it explode into a full-on Continental war) to concede Western Thrace in their peace treaty that was to end the First Balkan War in exchange for Ottoman neutrality in the conflict (Which would include keeping the Straits open to Entente commerical traffic). Remember, the sudden jump on Albania/the Adriatic Coast wasen't a move that was supported by the Great Powers, so your less-invested ones like Britain aren't going to have quite the same degree of sympathy towards the little Balkan nations than they did in the historical scenario.
This is irrelevant. Once France and Belgium are invaded (and this is inevitable under the German war plans) British interests dictate joining the war against the Central Powers.

Russia, certainly, wants to keep Bulgaria as far away from the Straits as possible (It being St. Petersburg's policy that if they coulden't have Constantinople, they certainly preferred it to stay in the anemic hands of the Turks). The Ottomans certainly had no love for the Italians, and the new CUP government is still sitting on shakey ground so soon after the Coup, and have no formal treaty of friendship with the Germans, so a period of neutrality seems somewhat more likely (Especially of Djemal uses the possibility/achievement of getting concessions/ territorial guarantees from the British to consolidate more initial power during the formation of the Triumvirate, sufficent to take the edge off of Enver's wilder Pro-German policies)
The Ottomans are still likely to attempt to reverse the unfavorable treaty of London, which would result in war with Russia. They would likely join the war even sooner here.
 
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